Today is mostly a day for good news or no news. Relevant games, with quad listed after opponent
2:30 PM Wake vs Notre Dame Q3
3 PM TCU vs Oklahoma Q1
6:30 PM Providence vs Georgetown Q3
7 PM New Mexico vs Air Force Q4
9 PM Villanova vs Depaul Q4
TCU is 4th to last bye, and Iām not sure we can catch them in any scenario. We hope they lose to Oklahoma, but it barely matters.
Wake (4th out), Providence (6th out), New Mexico (1st out), and Villanova (3rd out) can kill their chances today with a bad loss. With wins, each one advances to a Q1 game tomorrow. We need them to lose today or tomorrow to definitely stay ahead of them.
I donāt want to calculate what all the other teamsā odds are of picking up Q1 wins and how many theyād need to pass us if we lose ACC QF. Nor the odds of Dayton and FAU winning their tourneys to be bid ādonors.ā
So Iām not sure how Iād handicap it at the moment.
I did the math (way above). True odds in Clemson/ND are something like +/-290 (taking out the vig), 74.4% we play Clemson, 25.6% BC.
Kenpom has us as 6.5 point dogs vs Clemson or 3 point favorites versus BC.
Looking at moneyline odds in games with similar lines today, the true odds are something like +/-260 if we play Clemson and +/-150 against BC. So 27.8% to beat Clemson and 60% to beat BC.
(.6*.256)+(.278*.744)=.36 or 36%
We are about 36% to make ACC SF by that math. The assumptions about true odds vs Clemson and BC could be off to the extent that Vegas has a different line than kenpom or to the extent that playing a second or third day is a disadvantage. (FWIW I consider Clemsonās extra game to be a slight positive or neutral for them in their potential game versus us, and I consider BC being on day 3 of playing a moderate disadvantage.
Iād expect a vegas line vs Clemson closer to like +4 unless they look really good vs BC. Weāre such a volatile team with all the away blowouts and thatās factored into our awful kenpom rating. Vegas might expect it to be a little tighter in this setting
Maybe. I havenāt tracked closely how our lines have differed from the kp line. One thing I can say with certainty, though, is that the line wonāt be affected by how Clemson looks versus BC. Fans have recency bias, but not Vegas.
There seems to be a lot of that going on. Key players resting up for the NCAA. I donāt know if itās a new trend or there just happens to be some important players banged up so that it makes sense.
