About the probability of us losing that game last night when there were 70 seconds left.
Yup, a typical day in the life of UVA basketball.
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FAU, Colorado, UNC. Seems pretty simple to me.
We choked hard but still seems incredibly unlucky that the bubble worked out like this. New Mexico goes on a tear, same for A&M, same for Oregon who can now steal bid, Dayton losesā¦ the list goes on.
Funny that it may come down to UVA vs Indiana State for the last spot. Media will crucify the committee if they pick us over them
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Last year:
Team finishes 3rd in the ACC at 23-10 (14-6), loses in the semisā¦ā¦ and misses the tourney (and isnāt even first out ā that was actually an ACC team with more losses and a worse resume).
Thereās a precedent here. And weāre here because our guys snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
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My new bracket is out.
Last Four In (Last team listed is last team in the field):
New Mexico
Texas A&M
St. Johns
Virginia
First Four Out:
Seton Hall
Providence
Pittsburgh
Indiana St.
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I think the final 2 spots are what is up for grabs now. I think those 2 spots at the moment for me come down to Seton Hall, St. Johns, and Virginia. I gave it to St. Johns and Virginia. Virginia over Seton Hall thanks to better performance and predictive metrics averages, a better NET. A superior overall Q1/Q2/Q3 record for Virginia 17-10 vs Seton Hall 11-12. Seton Hallās arguments are 5 Q1 wins vs UVAās 2. For now I give the advantage to Virginia.
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However, 3 big bubble things to follow today. NC State and Oregon are bid stealers. If they win their respective conference championship games, Virginia falls out and then next on my list would be St. Johns. Also FAU is still alive in the AAC tournament and if they win, that is a bad that comes back in to play, good news for Seton Hall in my bracket.
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In my opinion, of the first 4 teams out, the committee could easily put in Seton Hall, Providence, Pittsburgh, or Indiana State instead of one of the teams I have in. Usually I will miss one team, so if I do it would likely come from that group.
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That team had same record with 4 Q3/Q4 losses, our resume is better.
But the bubble didnāt break our way at all and we missed a million free throws and Tony didnāt foul. So weāll enjoy a NIT game against Richmond or VCU or something
Thanks Raleigh
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Oof, reality check on the uva 
folks. 50/50 at best imo. Oregon only 2.5 dogs
And Lunardi has us back in lol. Credit to him though, he finally has it right and explains the possible scenarios well. Probably reading @Raleigh_Hoo
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I predict Oregon and NC State split which leaves us with FAU. They should win today in the semifinals.
However letās not forget what many were saying a few days ago. These conference tournament games donāt seem to affect the committee as much as everyone thinks based on the last few years. Fingers crossed
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10-10 combined Q1/2, undefeated Q3/4, Q1 road win, Q1 neutral court win and beat other bubble team Texas A&M plus made conference semis after earning the 3 seed and having a regular season with single digit # of Lās. I donāt do the bracketology stuff but I feel like we should be fineā¦ to me it just feels like there are multiple other teams around us who should be more nervous.
But I also thought FSU was a lock for the CFP. So weāll see.
Either way, the LRA bracket reaction show is sure to be 
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I am not an odds/perecentage guy with this stuff but if I had to
All 3 things go our way (NCSU/Oregon lose, FAU wins conf tournament) : 80%
2 things go our way: 60%
1 thing goes our way: 33%
0 things go our way: 15%
Of course those odds mean nothing and with our luck this week they all go against us. If I had to bet, 2 of three things go our way.
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Let Dragon breathe some fire on it
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Iām not even sure exactly how to handicap. I guess youād want to look at the final consensus Bracket Matrix in past years and compare it to the committeeās S-Curve. Based on the standard deviation of the differences, you could maybe figure out our odds if weāre BM 2nd to last in versus last in versus first out, etc
It seems like every year, there is one expected team that is left out who seems safe. The team I keep looking at is Oklahoma - below .500 in conference, really poor February/March. Good wins vs Iowa State and BYU. But Iām not convinced they arenāt in the vulnerable pool of teams.
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Could Colorado and/or New Mexico drop behind us with losses?
Lunardi just made an updated and moved UVA back into field and correctly punished Oklahoma and Michigan State
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I hope youāre right. At this point, I would love nothing more than to be the team that Seth Davis, Jay Bilas, and Rece Davis shit on for two straight hours on Sunday night across various networks because we got in over Indiana St.
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Jay Bilas has been pretty kind to the resume recently and actually is pretty annoying because if it was up to him there would be a 72 team tournament with how much he says āthis is a tournament teamā.
Jay Bilas is definitely pro participation trophies and doesnāt believe in cutting kids from sports teams.