I canât believe we went 1-1 in the ACCT and might still miss NCAAs. Itâs unreal how many bubble teams have won this week and that there are still 2 potential bid stealers
0.5% chance we turn down an NIT invite in reality lol
I was absolutely floored to see on Twitter that State fans were complaining that Burns wasnât getting calls he deserved. Apparently, we fouled poor DJ SO MUCH.
Conventional wisdom from bracket nerds on Twitter is to feel safe we need:
-UNC beats NC State
-Colorado beats Oregon
-FAU wins tourney
-San Diego State beats New Mexico
If 2 or more of those donât hold it gets murky for us.
If all 4 donât break our way then chances go way down.
Need @Raleigh_Hooâs sage wisdom to confirm or deny.
We have a very unusual resume so I think itâs much harder to predict our situation than other teams or compare us to prior years. I wouldnât be shocked if weâve been safely in all weekend.
Hereâs my guess at what Bracket Matrix consensus will be be day
ââlast four byesâââ
LOL, irrelevant to us
ââ-Daytonââââ-
Colorado
New Mexico
UVA
Texas A&M
ââ-outââââ-
Seton Hall
Indiana St
Providence
Pitt
A&M passes us with a win over Florida. Line is A&M +3.5
NC State moves the cut line up one with a win over UNC. Line is NC State +9.5
Oregon moves the cut line up one with a win over Colorado. Line is Oregon +2.5
FAU moves the cut line down with wins today and tomorrow. Today FAU -12.5 over Temple
2 Likes
Regardless of how this breaks - it feels like we will get what we deserve. Either in and everyone letâs this team know it was ugly to get here (true) or weâre out and we had control of our destiny (players and coaches choked away last night).
Personally I think Michigan State and Oklahoma need a thorough review of their rĂ©sumĂ©s by the committee but either way some fan base is getting real hurt on Sunday afternoon with a case for âthe committee never does thisâ (UVA, Seton Hall, Oklahoma, Colorado pending, Indiana State, New Mexico pending, Michigan State)
Edit - when I say ugly I donât mean our style of play, I mean straight up missing layups, easy jumpers, tons of free throws, and bad turnovers in many games throughout this year
7 Likes
Making the tourney by going to Dayton is like kissing your sister.
2 Likes
Not when you put $50 on UVa +205
2 Likes
If my guess of Bracket Matrix consensus above is right (weâre 2nd last in), here are the odds we are in what spot in the Bracket Matrix consensus at selection time:
2nd out: 1.3%
1st out: 11.2%
Last in: 32%
2nd last in: 38.6%
3rd last in: 16.7%
12.5% out, 87.3% in (rounding errors), so a 7 in 8 chance we are IN the Bracket Matrix consensus field at selection time
Again, this is just the odds of where weâll be in the consensus, not whether weâre actually picked. I donât know how to handicap that.
------------------the rest can be moved to Stats Nerdery---------
Based on devigging money line odds today:
A&M win = .418
NC St win = .215
Oregon win = .441
Odds of 3 wins in that group: .04
Odds of 2 wins in that group: .25
Odds of 1 win in that group: .454
Odds of 0 wins in that group: .255
FAU winning the American âmoves us upâ a spot: Odds of FAU winning their tournament: .656
(.84 to win today; .585 to play USF and .74 to beat them; .415 to play UAB and .84 to beat them)
Odds quoted at the top:
Odds of us moving down 3 spots: .013
Odds of us moving down 2 spots: .112
Odds of us moving down 1 spots: .32
Odds of us moving down 0 spots: .386
Odds of us moving down -1 spots: .167
6 Likes
Wrapping myself in a warm blanket of probabilities and putting my noise cancelling headphones on. Thank you for your service
Rooting guide with times:
Sa 3/16
3:30 PM, CBS, Florida -3.5 over Texas A&M
5 PM, ESPN2, FAU -12.5 over Temple (American SF)
8:30 PM, ESPN, UNC -9.5 over NC St (ACC Final)
9 PM, Fox, Colorado -2.5 over Oregon (P12 Final)
Su 3/17
3:15 PM, ESPN, FAU wins American
2 Likes
11 am - Levine gym at Schiller court at Columbia university - root for Princeton in Ivy semis, because they have an at large hope if they make the final and play well and not everything has to be naked self interest
(I do legit think they have an at large hope - Eamon has brought it up in every bubble column)
Lunardi has is first OUT this am so Iâm feeling pretty good about our chances. I really think he just does this game by game shuffling for clicks.
3 Likes
What doesnât make sense in lunardiâs is having seton hall above us, I would guess he may sneak them out and us back in over the coarse of the day.
https://x.com/jonrothstein/status/1768974826436272223?s=46&t=uWWx_Dkz2XN_W22Ad1tnww
1 Like
Which one?
1 Like
Yeah, we are ahead of SH in just about every metric. Makes no sense.
1 Like
Except Q1 wins which is a pretty big one
Yes, but our Strength of Record is better than SH and SJ and we have no bad losses.
1 Like