Right which begs the question: do they mostly do the bracket ahead of champ week and then make minor adjustments? Or do they do a Friday/Saturday scrubbing and re-examine everything? First scenario probably better for us
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But you have to compare it to other teams on the bubble. A resume doesnât exist in a vacuum.
They mostly have the same teams and seeds as the Bracket Matrix consensus. Check it tomorrow, and youâll have the best idea of the field. Check it now, and youâll have an idea of how things will go if todayâs games break certain ways.
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Is there a way to track bracket matrix in the days leading up to selection Sunday vs on Sunday morning? I seem to recall waking up Sunday morning and seeing different projections from when I went to bed Saturday night as bracketologists take a step back to scrub the field and clear the power ranking-esque influence of champ week. But not confident thatâs a true memory. I was also paying more attention to the protected seeds than the bubble the last 10 years for obvious UVA fan reasons
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I think that is one hope. It seems like bracketologists day-to-day just make minor changes based on results, but sometimes do a âfull scrubâ where they start from zero and look at the resume in total. I imagine most will do that on Sunday. That may help us, but I see no reason to believe it is more likely to help than hurt us.
31 brackets on BM a the moment with todayâs date:
----------last four byes------------
Michigan St 31/31
Mississippi St 31/31 vs Auburn Q1
Colorado 31/31 vs Oregon Q2
St. Johnâs 30/31
---------Dayton-------------------
New Mexico 30/31 vs San Diego St Q1
Oklahoma 29/31
Texas A&M 27/31 vs Florida Q1
UVA 19/31
---------out------------------
Seton Hall 13/31
Providence 6/31
Pitt 5/31
Indiana St 5/31
I donât think we can catch Texas A&M with a loss to Florida in the consensus, but we should root for it just in case.
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33 is still very good
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It seems to me if A&M and UVA are that close together on the bubble, youâd maybe use something like HEAD-TO-HEAD to separate them!!!
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Interesting that 35 of 36 are voted in. It makes me wonder if there is a game today involving an at-large candidate that is going to influence the last spot. None of the possible at-large candidates outside the consensus projected field are playing. Makes me wonder if Texas A&M is still not in? Maybe we should pull hard against them today too.
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In the video he made it sound like there are multiple teams in that 35 that could win auto bids. Does that mean a team like UNC is currently in their at large group?
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Yea not really speaking towards UVa specifically in my last two posts (outside the one line pondering which approach would be better for us) just the bubble is very interesting this year. Probably the best in years and some teams with much better resume than quality ratings and others that are the opposite. Will be interesting to see a) how thatâs handled by the committee and b) if that makes the projections less accurate than in previous years
Well there are 32 auto bids and 36 at-large. So they have to have someone penciled into the AQ. I would imagine UNC is that for the ACC. They are probably referrng to MIss St, New Mexico, Texas A&M etc but Miss St and New Mexico are probably safely in. And for New Mexico if they are out this minute they would probably have to win the auto bid tonight anyway. So it makes me wonder if A&M is 1st out at the moment and could knock someone out today if they beat Florida? Remember A&M has 5 Q3 losses, from my records, no team with more than 3 Q3/Q4 losses has made the field as an at large.
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That tells me todayâs results will have little impact on our position, no? If we are in today weâll be in tomorrow.
And I am being to think Seton Hall is the one of the close group being left out.
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yes and no. The bid stealers and FAU absolutely impact and that is what we are watching for today.
The math I did earlier assumed weâd be ahead of Texas A&M on Bracket Matrix, which isnât the case this afternoon. Now Iâll redo it assuming we canât catch anyone ahead of us, which I believe to be true. I donât expect us to pass New Mexico or Texas A&M if they lose, and no one behind us can catch us. So it comes down to bid thieves and donors. To wit, we want Colorado, UNC, and FAU to win their tourneys.
Odds:
All three win, we are 2nd last in: 28.8%
2 of 3 win, we are last in: 45.7%
1 of 3 win, we are first out: 22.3%
None win: we are second out: 3.3%
25.6% out, 74.5% in (rounding error), so a 3 in 4 chance we are IN the Bracket Matrix consensus field at selection time.
Again, this is just the odds of where weâll be in the consensus, not whether weâre actually picked. I donât know how to handicap that exactly.
All data is below.
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This seems to mean that conference tournaments mean little in determining the field, except a few bubble teams and AQs.
Letâs hope we were on the right side of the bubble heading into ACCs.
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Which is exactly what the committee has been subtly saying for a while.
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I donât think it should matter. They play 30/31 games and then 1 game in March on a neutral court is the deciding factor? Now if someone thatâs on the outside looking in goes on a run and wins the conference championship thatâs great. Thatâs what March Madness is about.
This has probably already been posted, but if so, here it is again. Todayâs rooting schedule:
3:30 Florida v. Texas A&M (root for UF)*
5:00 FAU v. Temple (root for FAU)
8:30 UNC v. NCSU (root for UNC)
9:00 Colorado v. Oregon (root for Colorado)
Tomorrow
3:15 AAC Championship (root for FAU if theyâre in it)
*Maybe this one doesnât matter, but canât be sure
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