agreed - they have seemed to play a lot of Sunday PM games all winter, when not much else is on (yes iâd watch random FAU/North Texas games instead of NFL⊠or at least alongside NFL)â
even some of those theyâve won have been weird, in OT vs. UTSA and Wichita State. i know you canât just blow everyone out but itâs been a lot of meh since the newy ear.
I get the arguments, but Iâm still startled to see Syracuse showing up in âNext Four Outâ.
Of note, they are barely in anyoneâs Bracket Matrix bracket.
Question for @Raleigh_Hoo: is the level of agreement on the last couple of at-larges on Bracket Matrix this season typical? Does it suggest that the bubble is pretty small, or is there some herding of opinions going on?
I think there can be herding of opinions for sure. It is hard to compare the bubble year to year, I do believe most years, by Selection Sunday it is clear which teams are in except for maybe the last 2 spots or so. There is always the chance the committee has some random team in that no one had, but usually it is pretty clear and is a matter of what the committee keys on year to year to differentiate between 3/4/5 teams for 2 spots. Last year I missed Nevada, I had Rutgers in. The committee seemed to value Nevadas combo of Q1/Q2 winning %, NET, and the predictive metrics of Nevada over those of Rutgers/Oklahoma St.
Nevada Q1/Q2 record 7-8 KPI/SOR average 43 NET 37
Oklahoma St. Q1/Q2 record 10-14, KPI/SOR average of 47, NET 43
Rutgers Q1/Q2 record 10-10, KPI/SOR 52.5, NET 40
I mostly just want to be in (and then win a game) but Iâd much rather be a non-Dayton 11 then an 8, 9, or 10
Whatâs your thinking on that?
You donât have to play one of the top 8 teams in Round of 32. Better odds of playing a double-digit seed in the next round (although unlikely).
I could be wrong but would guess thereâs not too much difference btw the teams seeded 6-9.
Personally wouldnât want to be in the 8/9 game because Iâm pretty sure weâll get boat raced by Purdue, Houston, or UConn even if we win the first round. For 10 vs 11 Iâm more worried about matchups. Would love a Mountain West opponent given their historic struggles in the tournament and the ACC vs MW debate thatâs gone on this season. Second round just wouldnât want Tennessee out of the 2 and 3 seeds
Yep, 7, 10 or 11 non play in
Yup. And in a perfect world avoid B12 (Iowa State) and B1G (Wisconsin but really most of that league) teams that wouldnât be thrown off as much by our style
I think working in our favor is that Iâm not sure anyone wants to put us in the national spotlight for the First Four. It wouldnât be the most thrilling start to a tourney.
Current bracket matrix seeds #6-11:
The 6 line is a little scary, as WSU and SCar would be good draws based on efficiency ratings, BYU and St Maryâs would be harder than a typical 6 seed. 7 line looks better, Florida is the team to avoid, but the other three teams are probably worse than a typical 7 seed.
Michigan State and Texas have the potential to create a rough draw for 1 seeds.
We canât play Florida since we already did in the regular season, right?
Itâs a factor that gets considered in making the bracket, but itâs pretty far down the list of what they have to accommodate, and they donât have to avoid a rematch (and expressly wonât if it would involve moving a team to a different seed line):
- If possible, rematches of non-conference regular-season games should be avoided in the First Four and first round. As a secondary consideration, the committee will attempt to avoid potential rematches from non-conference regular-season games in the second round. The committee will not consider moving teams up or down its true seed line to avoid non-conference rematches.
In practice first round rematches are pretty rare. Almost always a way to work around it
At this point I just want to get in, and make the Round of 32. Anything else is gravy.
Why do Joe Lunardiâs updates look like itâs a shared doc for a 8th grade group project? Surprised he isnât using Comic Sans.
This is the year to wildly overperform seeding. The one gap in Tonyâs resume. To do it- a 6,7,10 or 11 seed would be very ideal. Avoid the 1/2 line until the second weekend.
So many beautiful details in this PDF. The awful font color to highlight color combos. The usual propensity for grammatical errors or repeating teams. Good for him that he finalized his product in 2006 and ESPN still pays him in 2024 for it 
