Hoos5004, can you enumerate the institutional challenges faced at UVA that coaches at schools like Maryland donāt face? Some of this may seem obvious, but Iām not sure I understand the current state of the various headwinds faced by CTB. (When my son was at UVA ā I was there a long time ago ā he had professors who would literally say in front of the class that they came to UVA to escape the pressure to guarantee that athletes passed their classes.) Do you have a mental list of what the various institutional challenges are? I think some of us would find that very helpful. Thanks.
Iāve heard it theorized that resume plays a larger role in determining whether a team makes the field and quality is a larger factor in seeding.
Good question. As far as challenges go, UVa is just less willing to bend standards for admitting athletes. Athletes might be advised to what majors will make life easier, but the study is not inconsequential. The athletes go to class with everyone as opposed to being walked off from the student body at large. Some higher profile programs tend to create a bubble for the athletes. All these things seem good, but you have to be recruiting a player that really wants the full college experience, and is not in it to solely advance in their sport.
I think Pete Gillen mentioned during the 2019 run how difficult it was to recruit at UVa, and how he had underestimated that side of it (as a fan base we donāt have great memories of Peteās tenure here, but he did very well at Xavier and had a couple decent seasons at Providence, he is not a bad coach). During that run he heaped praise on Tony and how he had built up the program.
As far as other headwinds that are a product of the program, that would be the slow down offense we run, and the emphasis on defense. These are not appealing to all recruits and especially few top 100 recruits that want to show case themselves.
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People on the boards have also mentioned that some credits donāt transfer to UVa.
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Assume we lose to Duke and beat GT. I have us as likely in, with seeding and placement dependent on our ACCT performance and then external factors.
Weāll be the 3 or 4 seed in ACCT with a GT win. Means our first game is likely an ACCT 6 seed type, maybe Pitt, State, FSU, etc, maybe Wake or Clemson. Itās a good opponent, Q1 or Q2. A win gets us to maybe an 8/9 game, a loss drops us potentially to Dayton.
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They have good resume metrics as that post mentions bu 2 Q3 losses and a NET of 81 and the predictive metrics average is bad at 86.5.
They aint getting in just wining their last two. Maybe they get to next 4 out if they win their last two. They probably need to win those and make a run to at least the semis if not the finals of the ACC tournament and then hope the committee is caring about conference tournament performance this year.
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One thing to keep in mind is that in most mock brackets mine included, The AQ is going to South Florida in the AAC and Richmond in the A-10. Neither team will make it as an at-large and if FAU wins the AAC and Dayton wins the A-10 those are two spots that are not being counted on right now in most mock brackets. I bet at least one of the two Dayton/FAU win their tournament.
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See I have a hard time just talking loss or win given our margin of defeat is the biggest negative on our resume. If we had just lost the games weāve already lost respectably weād be locked in the field regardless of our remaining games. I think the ālose to Duke, beat GT, lose first ACCT gameā probably gets us in but whether itās Dayton or not might come down to the margin in the losses
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A team with our record, our wins and losses, but with non-absurd margins of losses I think isnāt even in the bubble discussion and targeting a 5 or 6 seed. Itās the margins that have our computer rankings so disproportionately low compared to our record peers. E.g. weāre the #3 team in the ACC by record but #7 by KenPom.
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Yep. If 15-20 point losses were 5-6 instead, weād be in the Clemson range.
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Trueā¦but if that were true, I think we would all feel better about the team in general.
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Yeah, itās true that those blowouts are hurting us, but it also makes sense that they are. I mean, those games were really badā¦
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I mean the only 1 thatās actually super frustrating was last week right? Not having an established lineup lessens the blow to the earlier ones, especially given we got revenge in 3 of themā¦ but yeah it is aggravating that we didnāt figure it out sooner.
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The AAC tournament is gonna be interesting. @Raleigh_Hoo has touched on it. FAU is the only NCAA lock in the league. But USF is in 1st place, has only lost one game since early Dec, and now even ranked in the AP poll. If they can get just one Q1 win in the tourney (they have none so far), I suspect theyāre going to get strong consideration for an at large even though the resume says no way. And then, Memphis is suddenly looking really good again. Could easily see them winning the conference tourney and being dangerous.
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Iāve watched FAU a few times this year. They have struggled with some mediocre to bad teams. I would definitely bet the field over FAU in the tournament.
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25 in AP v. 85 in NET/93 in KenPom is wild for USF. Hard to imagine USF missing the tournament if ranked on Selection Sunday
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Bartās got us last team in right now and last team in with a loss @Duke and win vs GT.
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3 for 4, not too shabby, score lines close to what you/we wanted as well.
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Thatās nearly entirely efficiency metrics given. Our resume is better than our efficiency metrics so I think we are much closer to the last four byes/dayton cutoff
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