The fact that you’re clinging to a logical fallacy - one disproven by the actual minutes per game evidence (Ugo is playing more minutes than Johann right now) - as evidence of your point should start to suggest to you that you might want to reconsider the foundation of your argument – since the facts controvert it, and an irrelevant appeal to authority that coaches understand it’s harder to get more minutes out of bench players is not going to change the fact that Ugo is playing more minutes than Johann.
Since I think that the number of minutes played matters more than who starts the game, and I agree with cuts on the less immediately tangible benefits of starting Johann, and I think that this team will be best served in the long run if Johann returns to or exceeds his early season promise, I think it’s better to keep Johann in the starting lineup.
Edited to add: And logical fallacies really bother me…as this post probably makes evident.
I guess we can quibble about consistently. In the last two games, Ugo has played more than Grünloh - which more or less corresponds to Johann’s slide lately. In the games prior, their performance was more comparable, and JG was playing about 5 minutes per game more. So as JG’s performance has slipped, Odom is playing Ugo more. Exactly as he should. And it doesn’t seem to matter that Ugo is coming off the bench in those games.
This is probably the wrong time for this but I gotta ask… is the start Grünloh for international recruiting purposes argument real? Two things:
1 - the obvious: TDR being widely considered a top player in conference is GREAT for international recruiting, we don’t need all the eggs in on JG…
And even in this, with the style of play here it would be extremely unrealistic to expect one of the bigs to play 30 or more minutes. JG will still get plenty of minutes
2 - what I’m seeing: maybe my guy Cuts can cut this up for us to confirm but I have JG down as being at least partially responsible for 12 of Pitts first 14 points tonight and a very noticeable difference in play when Ugo subbed in. Better defense which lead to better offense.
I’m just confused I guess on why we wouldn’t want Ugo, who IMO is playing better currently, to go up against the 1’s while JG who IMO is struggling more currently, to get back into his groove by getting to go up against more subs. This one seems like a no brainer to me?
Am I serious? Yes. But it’s like the lightest of tie breakers. The bigger reason is showing JG you still believe in him and letting him work his way back.
Also, I don’t see the urgency re: getting Ugo in the starting lineup vs. a team like Pitt as long as he’s playing more minutes.
Against Duke or in the NCAA Tournament if both were playing like this then I’d say start Ugo.
Don’t get the need at the moment though and think staying the course is a better long term idea.
I mean I feel like there’s a difference in argument though right… if you still get him say 18 minute off the bench, that also shows you still believe in him?
I don’t think anyone is saying JG is playing awful bench him for the foreseeable future completely but tightening his minutes down and getting him in spots where his skillset offensively can shine while his defensive issues can be more likely hidden going against opposing 2’s seems like an obvious choice to me?
If you’re going to do something like that it sends a message.
You need to be confident the message will be well-received and/or it needs to be a situation where you can’t afford to start slower. It’s the same rationale behind never sitting Malik.
If I’m Odom, I’m probably using this stretch to hope he works through it. If he doesn’t, maybe switch in a game where you need a pop like OSU or even Miami.
I can get that. I feel like for this team though they play their best when in a rhythm so the idea of making the change against Syracuse (next game) would be less about making the change for that opponent and more about letting them get into the new flow before those bigger matchups we have coming later this month…
What rhythm, though? All of these guys play with both Centers all of the time - it’s not really much of a change for everyone else other than the order they appear on the floor.
If you move Grünloh out of the starting lineup then you’re probably committing to doing that for a few games at least. I just don’t see the urgency.
Johann played 19 minutes tonight to Ugo’s 21. It probably would have been fewer in a closer game. He scored 8 points including that three at the end which is a good thing for him to remember going into the next. His defense was pretty horrible at the beginning of the game and his offense was also unfocused. By the end of the game, he was defending better than he started, considerably.
If it’s me, you definitely want to see if he can carry that momentum from the end of the game into the next against Syracuse; a game where we should still win even with a slower start if he’s not playing better. If you put him on the bench, though, then you’ve probably lost any of that potential momentum he may have gotten from playing a little better.
Personally, I’m probably targeting Miami as the game where you go to it if things continue as they have the past few games- their two-point offense is quite good and you’ll know for sure then it’s a prolonged issue.
I mean look at the reasons we’ve given for poor play… breaks, ballrooms and barns. That suggests a team that struggles when forced out of their comfort zone to me? We have a pile of guys who excel at one thing, shooting. They to me could be considered creatures of habit, especially if there’s any weight to the theories of them struggling to adapt to the above things. That again to me suggests limiting variables to maximize success.
Sure everyone in the lineup plays with everyone, but that argument could be made for anyone who plays 10+ minutes in any rotation, so why ever mess with a lineup? I don’t think we’re giving enough attention to how close we could’ve been to a disaster loss or 2 in the last week. Why risk losses just to wait to change the lineup when you have obvious data of what is and isn’t working?
I’m glad JG got it going, but I’m not sure that saying because he figured it out at the very end of a blowout means it will translate into a potentially competitive next outing.
Since the coach can manage minutes, the reason to make the switch is primarily psychological. Making the switch sends a message - rewarding Ugo and demoting Johann. Ugo certainly deserves it with his recent play, but how will they both take it? Will it “bump” Ugo? Will it “deflate” Johann? Does Ugo need it? Will it light a fire under Grünloh?
I don’t see the need, but if Ugo trotted out there for the jump on Saturday I would trust the staff had evaluated the effects and decided this was the best way to go.
To be our best, we need both playing to their potential, which we saw from JG early and UO lately. Even though Ugo is playing better now, we aren’t going to play any of our centers 30 mpg, so we need contributions from both. What’s the best way to unlock that for both players? I tend to think that letting Johann play through it is the best way, so I think staying the course makes the most sense.
Also, I absolutely love the way that first “line change” impacts the game. When Chance/White/Ugo come on roughly together (usually), it changes the complexion of the game. All three bring intensity in different ways and it’s qualitatively different from the guys they replace. If the other team has settled into any kind of rhythm, it’s disrupted, while it’s part of our normal game flow.
First thought I agree 1000% with. Second thought I’m on the other side of this one… maybe the ages and college experience comes into play in my thought process? Idk. But I feel like starting Ugo and setting the tone more defensively early and bringing Grünloh on to showcase his skills against the opposing 2’s at first to get into his groove would help him.
The psycho side of it I just don’t fully get, I think mainly because I don’t think he should be abandoned. 18 minutes off the bench vs 19 starting isn’t really any different, especially if he’s at a point that he’s playing in crunch time. I would think the 15 and 13 minutes he had played in the 2 prior games would feel like more of a slight psychologically.
Fucking with the line-up does more harm than good in my opinion. Minutes matter, and who finishes the tight games is the most telling statistic. My Dad came off the bench for the first half of his career and he did okay for himself. Let’s not overthink this…
I think you’re sleeping a little bit on the psychology of starter vs. non-starter. It’s mostly titular, although it’s also coming in cold vs. being warmed up, but if you have that status and then lose that status it can be a psychological battle. That’s not to say Grünloh couldn’t handle it, I don’t know, but it’s not as simple as it sounds from a mental perspective.
I mean, hey, Sam Lewis didn’t get derailed by his one game out of the lineup at Tech (which was probably the weirdest thing Odom has done this season)… but I just don’t see the urgency yet given the amount of time he was playing much better and that the schedule isn’t at its most challenging yet.