Grünloh’s recent defensive struggles, transition offense, and some other tidbits.
Would like to see Ugo start. I don’t think it’ll make a direct material difference, but could be a nice mental jolt.
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Yeah, I’m kind of torn on it. He’s playing much better right now but still think our ceiling is better with Grünloh playing a little more if he can get back to his peak.
Probably depends on whether you think it motivates Johann or discourages him. I think I prefer the optics of not “demoting him” (also probably better for international recruiting as it makes it obvious he’s slumping rather than letting him work through it) and letting him work his way back while still playing Ugo more until Grünloh is playing better.
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I think it’s as simple as the freshmen wall with Grünloh and why it would be smart to start Ugo down the stretch. Let Grünloh sit and watch and get a feel of the game from the start
Kind of a question for the staff of whether they put more weight on the full season sample vs. recent games (even if you’re not thinking in terms of statistical performance). Would guess that if they stuck by Malik as a starter through an up-and-down non-con (and got rewarded for it, IMO), they would keep Johann as a starter, but maybe Ugo gets bumped up in minutes more.
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Good stuff, Cuts! Lots of the things I’d noticed and many that I hadn’t, thanks!
To the Ugo/Grünloh debate, I’m also torn. In the grand scheme of things, it really doesn’t matter - they’re splitting the 40 minutes about 60/40, so does it really matter if the 24 mpg guy is coming off the bench while the 16 minute guy is starting? Only psychologically, so the coaches need to figure out (or have figured out) what’s going to work best - psychologically - to get the most of both players. Agree that it looks like Grünloh is overthinking, but would coming off the bench help him to see things better before he comes in or would it crater his confidence? I’d tend to leave it as is, maybe increasing Ugo’s minutes a bit while Johan gets his head together, but that’s just my sense of who they are - I’m sure staff is far more aware.
Loved the bit on White. Do I remember correctly that his one 3 point miss was the one he tried to create for himself off the dribble step back? Left hand betrayed him a bit and it was not a great shot. The shots in flow were much better.
On transition, I told my wife during the game that we were now the team that CTB’s teams made other teams look like when the defense was on – rushing, scrambling, making mistakes in a hurry to try to get some offense going before the vaunted defense got set. “Undisciplined” was what I always though watching other teams play us. Now I think it when I watch us play sometimes. Some of that is my “training” under CTB, but we get sped up and make mistakes.
Don’t get me wrong, I think CTB overplayed that hand at times and I’m okay with Odom pushing in the other direction, but we can definitely do better in the transition game. Might need (and might see) some focus on this in practice paying off down the line. When you think about the teams that are good in transition, you see heads up off the rebound by the player who brought it in and others and other guys running the floor - they are thinking transition the moment they secure the ball and it’s obviously coached. I don’t see that with us - the clip where Thomas went too central, passed too early and Lewis flared? Now that could be on Thomas, but teams that are well drilled in this are usually more situationally aware on the break. Like the Coach Smith secondary break offense.
Final thought that wasn’t covered but want to acknowledge - good and bad - is that it looks like the team is clearly listening to coach and staff and trying to put advice into practice. Hall shooting a “bunch” early - obviously he’d been reading this board - or more likely, Coach saw the same things a number of us did and told him “you have got to shoot it some to keep them honest.” So he did. With bad results and he quit, but it was an encouraging sign. There is no reason he should struggle like he does from outside and if he can get it going - that would be the missing piece. When they come out of halftime, you can see what they’ve been told to do - TDR passing up some 3s to drive inside, more aggressive attempts to get the ball to the paint - whatever the adjustment, they implement it. So that’s the good, but I say good and bad because I think the team can get overly fixated on whatever they’re told to do which makes them a bit more predictable. No real data for this, but I also wonder if fixating on “game keys” is related to the guys overthinking? Most notable with Johann, but might also be a factor with others.
Thanks as always!
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It absolutely matters who starts mostly because of who is playing together… Really hard to get off to good starts if Hall and Grünloh on the court together and neither one can put the ball in the ocean.
It would also help Johann to come off the bench so he’s not in foul trouble in the first two minutes at least if he comes off the bench three or four minutes into the game that’s less time in the first half to get into foul trouble.
Grünloh with Chance and Jacari makes more sense from a balanced rotation perspective.
If you want Johann to keep starting then Chance should start.
Ah, a player slam post masquerading as a rotation post!
Nope, still think it doesn’t matter. Hyperbole (throw it in the ocean) aside, neither Grünloh nor Ugo are much for creating their own shots, and we don’t usually run offense through them, so I don’t think that point holds water (see, I’m playing off the ocean metaphor!) I noted above that we will be a lot better if Hall’s shot starts dropping, and I don’t understand why it isn’t. Stroke looks good, he hits his fts. But I don’t think that putting him on the bench will fix his shooting, and as others have noted all over this board, Hall continues to be an important piece even with his shooting struggles, so it’s not as if we’re playing 3 on 5 with our current starting lineup.
Since there are a limited number of minutes, I don’t think it matters if Johann picks up two quick fouls 4 minutes in or 6 minutes in and I don’t see that as inevitable either way, so I find that point equally leaky.
I honestly think that Chance coming off the bench is the best use of his skillset and contribution to the team. He’s instant energy, he changes the complexion of the game when he comes in and it’s disruptive to defenses to have that tempo change.
Ugo is #1 on the team in offensive rating overall and by far in ACC play.
Ugo is #1 on the team in PER and the gap between him and Johann in Acc games is 26.1 to 17.6 vs overall is 25.1 vs 21.1.
Block % in Acc games is 14.5 to 8.7
True Shooting % in Acc games is 67% vs 53%
It’s not actually close.
And why it matters who starts?
Let’s say there are 5 - 4 minute segments - media timeout segments.
The starter plays segments 1,3,and 5 while
The reserve plays 2 and 4 - that equals 24
Minutes vs 16 minutes.
Ugo has earned it with his play.
Of course maybe it’s because Ugo is playing vs reserves as well? 
Not just international recruiting in general, but if Grünloh is playing another year in college.
I don’t disagree with the stats, or with the assertion the stats prove, that Ugo is playing better than Johann right now.
But that doesn’t mean Ugo needs to start, and using the “timeout” breaks to show that the starter gets more minutes smacks of a red herring. Sure, that’s when Odom often makes his changes, but the dead ball timeouts aren’t the only times a coach can make a change, and lately, Ugo has been playing closer to 24 than Johann, even though Johann is starting, so it’s obviously not predictive.
I don’t think it’s starters vs. reserves, because if Ugo is playing 24 mpg, at least some of those minutes are coming against the opponents’ #1 center. Could be lineups, but none of that really means that Ugo needs to be starting. I’m on board with him playing more minutes - I think right now, he’s playing better than Johann - but he can play more minutes off the bench as easily as he can from the starting five.
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I mean Ugo is his own transfer portal success story. Misused at K-State and pretty much written off.
Preseason when I suggested he could play more than Grünloh that was met with pretty steep push back from some and when I’d talk with national CBB accounts, who were often overlooking his addition, there was a lot of dismissiveness. Classic case of undervaluing how much player misuse and lack of empowerment can hamper what they can do on the floor.
Point being - switching to Ugo as a starter is its own success story in a different way. But, given how we appear to be one of the premium destinations for international players, it’s probably more important to tell that success story. And Grünloh’s IS very much still a success story right now re: his contributions and impact to the team.
It’s probably marginal either way, but I prefer the optics of keeping him the starter while he works through it vs. benching him as long as the minute distribution favors Ugo until he does.
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I know it’s difficult to read into body language on the bench but Johann went nuts on both of Ugo’s dunks against BC. Not sulking at all. Granted, that’s different from being benched as a starter, but I don’t view Johann as super sensitive or anything. He seems as bought into being a UVA student and player as anyone.
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I’m so glad you were right about Ugo. I’d never seen him play, just looked at his stats, thought “ok that’s a resume for a spot-minutes backup big.” But wow, holy crap did he get a raw deal at K-State. Love his play, and we’re seeing real improvement month to month.
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It’s the improvement that jumps off the page (screen). I had the same thoughts you did (though I think I wasn’t here for Cuts hyping him), I just thought - “okay, serviceable backup to steal some minutes.”
And honestly, the first dozen or so games, I wasn’t seeing much more than that - got some sense that he had more than I’d thought, but seemed very unsure of himself and positioning, not great hands, some bad decisions – Okay, serviceable backup – who can block shots! But as he’s grown into the game and found his role…so much more than I expected.
He rose as Johann faded, and I’m hoping that Johann can find that early season groove again and improve as Ugo has.
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I wouldn’t worry about Johann sulking. I would wonder if he’d lose some confidence, though. It sends a message internally and externally. It’s one thing to play less and another thing to be demoted out of the starting lineup. I thought Odom did a nice job of never doing that to Thomas despite really slashing his minutes for a while.
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So we are more worried about optics now than a deeper March run?
And yes as a coach I can verify it is simply harder to get reserves more playing time than starters - they will have to play more prolonged stretches to do it and get more tired in those spans.
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Very worried about a deeper run in March. The best way to get there is having everyone, Grünloh being probably one of the most important, playing their best.
Keeping him as the starter allows him to work through it without endangering the confidence, keeps the optics good, and is probably the best path toward having everyone playing the best they can in March.
I’m not worried about Ugo’s fatigue. He can handle 24 minutes.
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How many games (if any) has Ugo “started” the second half?
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I don’t have strong feelings on starting lineups with a 9-man rotation, where minutes are plentiful, and nobody is above 28 MPG, and only one guy is above 25 MPG.
Basically, when healthy, 8 guys play just below or just above 20 MPG, and TDR plays 28 MPG.
The thing that matters more to me is getting the combos right. On that note, Hoop Explorer says Ugo+TDR works well, so might be worth more of a try. Conversely, Tillis and Grünloh also works well (great on offense, okay on defense). Might be worth seeing how Grünloh attacks a second stringer, too.
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