Less in the weeds than normal due to time constraints… but probably for the better.
THANKS! Bout to dig in…
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This will be a downright breezy read from a Cuts standpoint.
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They’re all breezy reads. (Lemme stop before I fanboy too much.)
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Gmail didn’t even clip the message! That’s a first!
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Great, if sobering, read Cuts!
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Human nature is such that it’s hard to stay as passionate or consistent about something when it’s not as good as it once was or when it’s not what you thought it would be.
On that note, just wanted to say that no one will ever hold it against you(*) if you skip a game, or write up games in groups, or take a hiatus or whatever. I realize you’re not currently saying you want to do anything like that, but if it comes to that… don’t burn yourself out by viewing this as an obligation.
*Not seriously, anyway. Standard razzing about being a lazy bum will always apply.
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We also had the misfortune of playing two awesome pressure defenses with plenty of athletes, coached by salty old dogs. So the offense looked putrid.
And we’ve played a putrid defense with terrible help principles that was sagging off a guy who had a flamethrower that night.
Based on those 3 games, I think it’s still hard to predict our level. Before the Nova game I worried we’d be bad. After, I didn’t think we would be (and I still don’t, tbh). After these two, I’m pretty sure we can’t be good, because good teams have ways of dealing with perimeter pressure. So I think we are somewhere between the poles of good (team that could make noise in the tourney) and bad (likely sub-500). But bubble team is probably less likely than before Baja Mar, but still potentially achievable.
Unfortunately our early schedule is stacked with only very good teams and cup cakes, so that makes it harder to know our level.
We will know more when we start playing the morass of other “not good but also not bad” teams in the ACC.
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I wish I could be as optimistic as you. WE are so far behind physically at every position (with possible exception of Saunders and DD) that we just are incapable of competing against athletic teams- not just good athletic teams but ANY athletic team that plays decent D. Blake and TJ are so weak they can’t hold position. I mac has not developed any explosiveness and Cofie, Sharma and Saunders have yet to find their confidence or comfort in our system to be effective
Warley would have helped- a lot. But he would not be the difference make that a Beekman would have been on this team. As for Bliss- no way he can be a contributor with sitting out almost 2 years.
The only reason for hope is that the ACC may be historically bad this season, I mean the worst EVER in its 75 tear history. It is possible that against such mediocre competition this team could win 8-9 maybe even 10 conference games. If the squad improves by simply learning to better trust one another and better utilizing spacing/ passing/ penetration against less athletic teams, we might just reach .500 in conference.
Hate to say it but I just don’t see this team consistently playing at the level and intensity to reach .500. Just too slow, weak and inconsistent with effort to be a winning team
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Did my piece read as optimistic or are you responding to Haney?
I didn’t feel optimistic writing it; that’s for sure.
Thanks - I appreciate that - although my compulsion in that area (wanting to write about as many individual games as possible) is almost entirely my own doing.
I have skipped a few in the past (final tournament losses - the road VT game last year, etc), but I do try to limit. Even if this season turns ugly and looks like a lame duck season as we progress through it, I doubt I’ll want to bow out. Maybe it’ll go from 30 clips to 10-20, haha.
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Cuts - random question but what has been your favorite game to recap since you started doing these?
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I think it was a reply to me. I’m not terribly optimistic either. I’m just making a similar point to yours really: our lack of athleticism was particularly acute in these two. It may be less acute in general…
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I’m not really convinced Warley would’ve helped much. Would’ve made the defense better for sure but not convinced he would’ve been a positive on O. Will always be one of the great what ifs.
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Hm. I hadn’t thought of that, thanks for this.
I think the ACC Tournament in 2023 was especially satisfying because things I’d been writing about all season (re: why the hell do we insist on playing Gardner and BVP together so much - when there was never even fool’s gold that that was ever good and was simply a result of us conflating some instances of small ball working without Gardner) were on display and we, at least temporarily, exorcised some demons and looked like the team we were capable of looking like prior to running out of steam against Duke and the Furman game melt down.
It was more of a catharsis of pulling my hair out re: so many fans talking about how Shedrick was unplayable and Dunn was too raw and then seeing the huge shift in quality when we were forced to go away from the thing that wasn’t working (but was good enough to keep a decent winning streak alive against significantly worse teams by a narrow margin) and heavily use those players.
From more of a dog with a bone in my teeth perspective, I also got really into the review of the Pitt game at home last year - because the entire review was just about one thing - hedge defense and a lack of adjustment. I think it’s the only time I’ve ever made an entire in-season review about one specific thing - like almost 30 clips of just hedge defense. But there was something satisfyingly sick about going through that exercise.
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Warley on O would give us more versatility (guards posting, for example), another credible ball handler, and therefore likely fewer turnovers against pressure. I think it’s possible now after seeing Ames, that we could have played the two of them together.
Plus defense.
So I think we are clearly a better team with him, but as always who knows by how much. Maybe only a little…
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TLDR (although not really this time) version: we don’t have a PG, or athletes. WFS was right all along.
Here’s my question for you, @Cuts_from_The_Corner: You seem to be of the view (well, you more or less state it outright) that our problems stem from talent/roster and not scheme. I share this view, but it is an ongoing (as it will always be) topic of debate on the in-game and in-season threads. To the extent you see no issue with the scheme as a whole, and given the fact we are extremely unlikely to abandon the core CTB principles of prioritizing getting back over ORs and methodical possession/shot selection, what can be done tactically to counter teams that are intent on pressuring us on the perimeter? You suggested playing through the post, but the examples you highlighted seemed almost accidental (ie very late in the possession) in so doing. Is there any tactic you would suggest to the staff that might allow us to “get a paint touch” earlier in the possession?
I am admittedly not an Xs and Os guy, but my impression is that our scheme this year, while not the same as last year, remains heavily oriented around actions on the perimeter, which against more athletic teams results in us being forced away from the basket for far too long. Basically, I feel like nobody on the defense really ever has to turn their head and/or slide and gets to keep everything in front of them for almost the entire possession. Maybe the answer is come combination of “just do it sooner” and “we can’t do that with these guys” but that’s a little unsatisfying.
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Main thing I want to see is no mental collapses, particularly against mediocre teams that get hot. If we have a bit more resilience this season it’ll go a long way. Last year you could almost see our wills breaking with 5 mins left in the first half certain games.
I’m starting to turn against your resilience theory. I kinda think we look less resilient because we look less good.
I’m sure if we go back through all our early season cupcakes over the years, there are a fair amount of cupcakes that keep things relatively close for 25+ minutes.
No UVA teams have struck me as particularly resilient since like 2020. But that’s an aside.