Dragon's 2022 College Football Picks Week 10 (Season 3)

5-5 Last Week
42-34-2 Overall
@HoozGotNext Locke of the Week 6-4 welcome back to the winning side

im rich cash money GIF

Even Steven yet again. 5-5 last week thanks to Ohio State being down double digits in the fourth, then covering and finally allowing PSU a late TD for a backdoor cover. Why do I do this to myself? The season is getting tighter and tighter with the majority of the P5 deep in their conference schedules and lines tightening. Gonna need a late season run to ensure there’s a happy holidays here in the Dragon house.

UGA -8 vs. Tennessee
Sometimes I like to spit in the wind and see what happens. This is a massive line and honestly shocks me. Even crazier it opened as UGA -12 and has been hammered down as the money has poured in over the week. Betting against UT 7-1 ATS this season is a near death wish but I laugh in the face of danger and I think at home between the hedges, something special might happen.
UGA-8

Texas -2.5 vs. Kansas State
It’s been fun to watch KSU this season, but the injuries are becoming too much to overcome. I feel back for Adrian Martinez who is finally showing the country what he can do after 3 lost seasons with Scott Frost, but is racking up some injuries that are costing him game time. As of right now (Friday afternoon) he is a no-go and so is KSU LB Daniel Green. The Wildcats need everything in their arsenal to contain Texas RB Bijan Robinson has been on a tear and he could feast on Saturday if given an opportunity. This is one I think the number is off just enough, that we can win with. Texas has covered their last three following a straight up loss and I see that trend continuing.
Texas -2.5

Clemson -3.5 vs. Notre Dame
This one is super tight and I’ll only place a moderate bet on it. Clemson on the road at night at Notre Dame is a game that a few season’s ago would be national headlines, but ND has lost at home to Marshall and Stanford so there’s that. Last week the Domers put together the complete package and humbled Syracuse on the road. I think they will bring a lot of that emotion into Saturday’s game and will give Clemson a run. The Tigers are walking a tight rope and have been all season with their play. There’s a possible QB controversy brewing, but I don’t think it will tank the team this season. It’ll be tight but Clemson gets it done.
Clemson 3.5

UCLA - 11 vs. ASU over 66
I need a little late night action in my life so I’m jumping on this Pac 12 after dark darling of a game. The Bruins go on the road to the desert to face a Sun Devils team that has won 2 of the last three and appears to be finding their stride. History is on ASU’s side going 7-1 ATS against AP Top 10 opponents with 4 straight up wins in that stretch. But I like the recent history of UCLA going 4-1 ATS in PAC-12 games this season. Chip Kelly sucks, but I need him to keep faking it and get me the points on Saturday night.
UCLA - 11

Kansas - 1 vs. Oklahoma St.
Injuries are the key factor in this one. Both teams have banged up QB’s but the Jayhawks have hopes that Jalon Daniels will be back under center, but even if they go with back-up Jason Bean they have a capable play caller. On the other side, the Cowboys are hurting with Spencer Sanders out. Kansas is a win shy of earning a bowl game bid and they’ll want to lock that up as soon as possible.
Kansas -1

Baylor vs. Oklahoma Over 61.5
Big 12 shootout here we go. The Sooners defense is awful. They are healthy on offense again and can put up points averaging 33 points a game. Take out the anomaly against Texas and the Sooners are scoring over 35 ppg. The Bears also have an offense that can punish opponents and currently averages 40ppg. Two teams struggling to find direction and momentum to ride to the end of the season, let the fireworks fly.
Over 61.5

UCF vs. Memphis over 58.5
UCF has gone over the total in nine of its past 12 road games. Both of these teams average over 400 yards offense per game (over 510 for UCF) and both average right at 35 ppg. This total feels far too low.
Over 58.5

Virginia +7 vs. UNC Under 60.5
Who the hell set this over/under? I want to gamble with them every week. Unless the Tarheels drop 45 on the Hoos there’s no way they reach 60. Last week UNC was down 10 pts at the half to Pitt and then Pitt got on a bus and drove back to Pa and forgot to play the second half. The Virginia defense has proven to be effective and I think they can generate enough pressure on Carolina to slow the passing attack.
Under 60.5

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There’s gotta be a week when our offense breaks out. Right? Right? Right? Why is nobody answering?

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Landscape Tumbleweed GIF

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I’ll throw my picks out here just so you all can bet the opposite and make some money.

Wake Forest -4.5 against NC State. Wake Forest imploded against Louisville with six turnovers in the third quarter. That won’t happen again, and I fully expect fourth-year QB Sam Hartman to right the ship with solid play this week. On the other side, NC State is hoping they caught lightning in a bottle with freshman QB MJ Morris, but he won’t catch anyone unprepared this week. If Morris can’t produce like he did in the second half against VT, we’ve seen what this NC State offense looks like, and it isn’t pretty.

Iowa +3.5 against Purdue. Speaking of offensive offenses, here’s Iowa! Luckily for them, the forecast calls for rain and 40-50 mph wind gusts in West Lafayette on Saturday. Sounds like just the kind of ugly, low-scoring game that Iowa is comfortable with and often wins. Something like 14-13 Iowa on a missed extra point sounds about right.

Boise State -7.5 against BYU. I picked BYU a couple of weeks ago. I learned my lesson and intend to benefit from it this week.

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The later it gets in college football season, the more you have to pay attention if you want to bet. Which I certainly do not, so I’m grateful that Dragon does haha

I avoid lines that seem odd. That’s like half of these to me. Dragon explained a couple of them were due to injuries. And I think all my losses this year have involved either the Pac 12 or point totals. So staying away from those.

That leaves my choice, Clemson.

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Well if i bet it will certainly be the one i dislike the most.
Im also predicting a UVA touchdown this week off a UNC fumble. UNC 38-10

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I love the logic here.

There’s a few wonky lines. And a lot of game day decisions based on injuries.

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How the eff is Desomd Howard 52? Dude looks 35 on a bad day.

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Great stuff Dragon
In The Who gives a shyt category.Texas Tech sat on the runway for 7 hours yesterday into last night.
Didn’t arrive to their rooms until way after 10cdt.
Bet the house on TCU

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Oh snap really? TcU -7.5… I’m in. Lock it in.

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Does a FSU loss open the door for a Primetime return to the sideline?

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Loved his advice to Jack Salt: dunk everything

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The guy is a complete house

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That’s the real deal Mauri strength

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Knew you would appreciate

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IHa reminding The Vols life is hard out here in North Ga

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Showers hesding to Athens likely a wet 4th qt. Vols need to make a move now.

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Uga defense is sick. Destroying the Tennessee offense. Textbook

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Espn juat flashed the “upset alert” icon on the crawl for UofM v. Rutgers. Its 17-10 in the 2nd qt

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