5-5 Last Week
42-34-2 Overall
@HoozGotNext Locke of the Week 6-4 welcome back to the winning side
Even Steven yet again. 5-5 last week thanks to Ohio State being down double digits in the fourth, then covering and finally allowing PSU a late TD for a backdoor cover. Why do I do this to myself? The season is getting tighter and tighter with the majority of the P5 deep in their conference schedules and lines tightening. Gonna need a late season run to ensure there’s a happy holidays here in the Dragon house.
UGA -8 vs. Tennessee
Sometimes I like to spit in the wind and see what happens. This is a massive line and honestly shocks me. Even crazier it opened as UGA -12 and has been hammered down as the money has poured in over the week. Betting against UT 7-1 ATS this season is a near death wish but I laugh in the face of danger and I think at home between the hedges, something special might happen.
UGA-8
Texas -2.5 vs. Kansas State
It’s been fun to watch KSU this season, but the injuries are becoming too much to overcome. I feel back for Adrian Martinez who is finally showing the country what he can do after 3 lost seasons with Scott Frost, but is racking up some injuries that are costing him game time. As of right now (Friday afternoon) he is a no-go and so is KSU LB Daniel Green. The Wildcats need everything in their arsenal to contain Texas RB Bijan Robinson has been on a tear and he could feast on Saturday if given an opportunity. This is one I think the number is off just enough, that we can win with. Texas has covered their last three following a straight up loss and I see that trend continuing.
Texas -2.5
Clemson -3.5 vs. Notre Dame
This one is super tight and I’ll only place a moderate bet on it. Clemson on the road at night at Notre Dame is a game that a few season’s ago would be national headlines, but ND has lost at home to Marshall and Stanford so there’s that. Last week the Domers put together the complete package and humbled Syracuse on the road. I think they will bring a lot of that emotion into Saturday’s game and will give Clemson a run. The Tigers are walking a tight rope and have been all season with their play. There’s a possible QB controversy brewing, but I don’t think it will tank the team this season. It’ll be tight but Clemson gets it done.
Clemson 3.5
UCLA - 11 vs. ASU over 66
I need a little late night action in my life so I’m jumping on this Pac 12 after dark darling of a game. The Bruins go on the road to the desert to face a Sun Devils team that has won 2 of the last three and appears to be finding their stride. History is on ASU’s side going 7-1 ATS against AP Top 10 opponents with 4 straight up wins in that stretch. But I like the recent history of UCLA going 4-1 ATS in PAC-12 games this season. Chip Kelly sucks, but I need him to keep faking it and get me the points on Saturday night.
UCLA - 11
Kansas - 1 vs. Oklahoma St.
Injuries are the key factor in this one. Both teams have banged up QB’s but the Jayhawks have hopes that Jalon Daniels will be back under center, but even if they go with back-up Jason Bean they have a capable play caller. On the other side, the Cowboys are hurting with Spencer Sanders out. Kansas is a win shy of earning a bowl game bid and they’ll want to lock that up as soon as possible.
Kansas -1
Baylor vs. Oklahoma Over 61.5
Big 12 shootout here we go. The Sooners defense is awful. They are healthy on offense again and can put up points averaging 33 points a game. Take out the anomaly against Texas and the Sooners are scoring over 35 ppg. The Bears also have an offense that can punish opponents and currently averages 40ppg. Two teams struggling to find direction and momentum to ride to the end of the season, let the fireworks fly.
Over 61.5
UCF vs. Memphis over 58.5
UCF has gone over the total in nine of its past 12 road games. Both of these teams average over 400 yards offense per game (over 510 for UCF) and both average right at 35 ppg. This total feels far too low.
Over 58.5
Virginia +7 vs. UNC Under 60.5
Who the hell set this over/under? I want to gamble with them every week. Unless the Tarheels drop 45 on the Hoos there’s no way they reach 60. Last week UNC was down 10 pts at the half to Pitt and then Pitt got on a bus and drove back to Pa and forgot to play the second half. The Virginia defense has proven to be effective and I think they can generate enough pressure on Carolina to slow the passing attack.
Under 60.5