Dragon's 2022 College Football Picks Week 11 (Season 3)

9-1 Last Week… how ya like me now?
51-35-2 Overall
@HoozGotNext Locke of the Week 6-5 Pick wisely this week

cash money GIF

What a week last week! I’m still riding so high I almost don’t want to make picks, but then I remembered, gambling. I need that sweet action baby. So Let’s take all that cash I earned last week and burn it to the ground faster than FTX.

Texas Tech -3.5 vs. Kansas
Kansas is having a dream season and last week they reached the sacred grounds of bowl eligibility and they celebrated like they won the Big 12. With no clear path to the the Big 12 Championship what keeps the Jayhawks motivated as they head south to Lubbuck? Meanwhile Texas Tech gets screwed by travel when they are on the road but they’ve held their own at home knocking off Texas, WVU and Houston. More importantly the Red Raiders are running out of opportunities to get bowl eligible and need to take advantage of the opportunity presented on Saturday.
Texas Tech -3.5 @CavTex how ya feel about this one?

Wake Forest -4 vs. UNC Over 77.5
Vegas is calling out to me on this one. I’m in the camp that believes the real Wake Forest will show up on the field on Saturday. Entering October Wake was ranked in the top 25 and had ambitions of reaching the ACC Championship, but the last month has not been kind to them and the last two weeks have been flat out brutal. The offense is responsible for 11 turnovers. I’m banking on that being the exception and not the norm and they return more to form on Saturday. Playing the team ranked 117 in defensive efficiency should help. I also like this to be a shootout. Last year these two combined for 113 points on an O/U set at 77, I expect more of the same fireworks Saturday.
Wake - 4 Over 77.5

Baylor vs. Kansas State Over 52.5
Here we get the fun ranked dog on the road against an unranked opponent. Kansas St. has struggled to get respect from Vegas all season. I went back and forth on the 2.5 point spread here and ultimately decided to stay away thanks to concerns around Adrian Martinez health. What I do like is Baylor is clicking on offense and covered the over in 6 consecutive games. Offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes have been on his game, and even if KSU doesn’t hold up their end of the deal, the Bears will be ready to play.
Over 52.5

Louisville +7 vs. Clemson
We all know I like to hold a grudge and that’s certainly playing into this pick. Louisville has been resilient all season and finding ways to string together 4 consecutive victories. I don’t think they break the 38-game home winning streak Clemson has in Death Valley, but the Cards can keep this one close. The Clemson QB situation is a disaster and the whole offense looks dazed and confused.
Louisville +7

Army vs. Troy Under 45.5
Two option based teams going head to head in this one. There may only be 15 combined possessions and do you really think they are scoring on 50% of those possessions? I’ll take the under.
Under 45.5

Notre Dame vs. Navy Over 39.5
I was legit surprised to see the Irish are 6-3 on the season. After the horrible start to the season if felt like every one wrote the Domers off, but slowly they’ve turned things around and found their stride. I think this is a rivalry game of sort to some people, I don’t know, don’t really care. 39.5 feels too low. The ND offense is playing better as of late and the defense can help them win the field position battle which will negate some of Navy’s ball control.
Over 39.5

Oregon -13 vs. Washington
I love my Ducks. After getting blown out in week 1, Oregon is averaging 40 points a game and gone undefeated. Bo Nix looks like the guy Auburn thought they recruited in 2019 and Saturday night they get a Huskies team that is much improved since the start of the season but they are going to have to hold on to their butts to keep up in this one.
Oregon -13

TCU +7.5 vs. Texas
Undefeated in the CFP, but on the road in Austin and a 7.5pt dog thems the breaks. TCU has no room for error if they want to hold on to that fourth spot in the CFP. This is a dicey game, Texas has proven to be tough at home and they play well in the spotlight on Shark. But the line is growing and I can’t stay away. Also screw McConaughey and stop living off True Detective
TCU +7.5

Virginia +5.5 vs. Pitt UNDER 40
This isn’t the lowest under I’ve taken this season (thanks Iowa). But it does feel like stiff kneejerk after the 60.5 last week, but I get it. Hoos are short 3 WR’s they have an offense that averages 18 points a game. The numbers on offense look slightly better for the Panthers, but that’s slightly misleading, take out the drubbing they put on Va Tech and you have a team averaging 21 ppg. I hope the Hoos win, but I honestly don’t care at this point it’s basketball season. Lock me in on the under.
Under 40


Didnt I see that Panthers starting QB is out as well? Another big factor I would think

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Yep, he is I forgot all about that. Won’t lie I have very little interest in that game, there’s too much good football (and fall internationals) to watch to be bogged down watching that snorefest.


Are they still out? Dang. Also, is Pitt QB being out a sure thing?

Also don’t think I will get to watch much live.

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I believe yes and yes by my research as of this AM. But full disclosure I did not beat the bushes hard to get intel. As I said this is a boring game and honestly if this wasn’t a UVa site I wouldn’t have looked it up at all and I have the smallest of plays in at a .25 unit.

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There is a joke here that I wont make… unit size related

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Oh, Dragon!. Your Wake Forest pick is giving me flashbacks to my (typically lousy) pick of Wake Forest last week. You’re on a roll and have to go with your hunches, but two weeks in a row of terrible interceptions from formerly reliable Sam Hartman has me worried that he may be broken. QB psyches can be fragile.

I like your Oregon pick and Louisville. I lean against you on Texas and Kansas.

Overall, I like three games with the favorites giving up an even touchdown:

FSU on the road against Syracuse, particularly if Shrader is still out for the orange.
Washington State at home against Arizona State.
Illinois at home against Purdue.

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Haha you know how it is, it’s like Icarus and flying close to the sun when you’re on a high. The Wake could become a disaster, but that’s why I’m insuring it with the Over because I’m banking on if it does, there will be points.

I agree with you about the FSU pick, esp. as you said if Shrader is out.
I’ve seen some chatter around the Purdue game and money coming in for them which doesn’t feel right. I’m not ready to fade Illinois just yet after last week and lean more towards you.

Put me down for the Horned Frogs. If I lose this one, I’m taking my .500 season and turning the page to hoops haha

Speaking of that…I like FSU (-1.5) to bounce back tonight at UCF. They both had terrible losses in the opener. Taking Western Illinois (+15.5) coming off a road win over the fighting Poindexters to keep it interesting at DePaul. Also going for Kansas State (-6.5) at Cal.

Tempted by both Liberty (+9.5) at Alabama, and Norfolk State (+24.5) at Baylor. That’s a sneaky good measuring stick for Baylor.


Haha I hear ya.

I’m gonna take a page out of your book and going to jump on a few of those hoops lines. I’ll always bet again DePaul and I like the Norfolk St. pick. Locking those in.


@BDragon is better at picking my winners than I am his.

Shaheen Holloway vs his old team tomorrow, gimme St Peters +16.


@BDragon red raiders are banged up and McGuire seems to think there are 5 downs to get a first down
My pick is Kansas, they rolled a very good Osu team last weekend.
Texas is rolling Quin is spinning it, rumors out of Austin is maybe Arch might be flipping to Tennessee?
I think the horns cover.
Stage is too big for the frogs.


You’re making me nervous. The TCU spot I’m losing confidence in.

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Snow on the ground in Fayetteville Ark. LSU not gonna like that

Would be amazing if he flipped.


Good thing I can’t bet on UVA games in the state of VA. Pitt going to hit that over on their own today. And good thing you didn’t put much on it, Dragon.

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If the Virginia offense can stay out of their way the under should be safe. Pitt O gonna be taking a knee by HT


College football is nuts. How does Liberty win at Arkansas one week, then lose to UConn the next. haha UConn has been a real money maker this year.

And Kentucky is definitely a basketball school. Losing to Vandy at home, ouch.


Jim Mora Jr. is a seriously underrated coach. What he’s doing with UConn this year is nothing short of miracle work.


Agreed Mora has worked miracles.

Also wonder how dialed in Hugh Freeze is at Liberty with all the signs pointing to Auburn knocking on his door everyday