5-3 Last Week
62-59 Season
Finished the season strong enough last week to keep me above .500 and put a little cash in Dragon’s pockets so I can go out and blow in in Charlotte this weekend. I appreciate all of y’all for sticking with me on this journey it’s been fun. @fivesheff really appreciate you picks and collaboration.
Now it’s time to lock in on Conference Championship week.
Indiana vs. Ohio State -4.5 Under 48"
The Buckeyes print money this season. My guy @5sheff has said it multiple weeks now and the numbers back it up. OSU is 11-1 ATS this season. That’s a trend I cannot ignore. On the field this is a step up in competition for both teams, but I favor Ohio State as the known commodity. Indiana’s offense has sputtered both times they faced good defensive units this season. Against Iowa they were held to 20 points and Mendoza threw for 233 yards. Against Oregon Mendoza was held to 213 yards. The IU offense needs volume to be successful 70+ plays and against stiffer competition they’ve struggled to hit that number. I am concerned about the Buckeyes focus for this game, they have nothing to play for on Saturday which is why I’m taking the under incase they decide to continue to rest players ahead of their CFP run.
Ohio St. -4.5 Under 48
Georgia -2.5 vs. Alabama
There’s been one boogeyman for Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs since he took over in Athens, and that’s the Alabama Crimson Tide. Bama was able to grind out a 24-21 win in September. Being able to do it again in the Dogs backyard is going to be a tall task for a Crimson Tide program that has hit all sorts of bumps this season. The Georgia defense is better than their perception and they’ve been great at grinding opponents down.
Georgia -2.5
North Texas vs. Tulane Over 66.5
Interesting note, I waited on this line to get it down to 66 because it was hanging around 67 and 68 which was just too high for me. I am concerned that Tulane can hold up their end of the deal here, but I like the Mean Green offense to continue rolling, as the top scoring team in the country averaging over 46 ppg.
Over 66.5
Virginia -4 vs. Duke Over 57.5
This is the only game that truly matters. The Hoos travel to Charlotte for a shot to win the ACC, get to the CFP and save the ACC from utter embarrassment. The line has been on the move all week opening at 2.5 and now sitting between 4 to 4.5. I could see it creeping to 5 before kick on Saturday. The money has been all over the Hoos here and rightfully son. The Blue Devils have a high powered arial attack and maybe one of the most underrated QBs in the nation. The problem is Duke’s offense thieves on rhythm and pace. When they get sped up or put into long down situations the wheels fall off. Last time out the Hoos sacked Mensah 4 times and held him to one of his worst outings of the season. The Virginia front 7 are the key to this game. Bring pressure, allow the secondary to lock in on the receivers and it will be a long day for Duke. If this game does become close, I expect it to be a high scoring affair which is why I’m taking the over. Even in a track meet, Virginia sustains drives and their offense is used to going on prolonged marches that put the opposing teams offense under pressure to perform when they get back on the field.
Virginia -4 Over 57.5