Iām back after a week or two off to lick my wounds from an abysmal trip to Charlotte. The College Football Playoff kicks off Friday night and we have some potentially exciting games and a few potential disasters. Exactly what you want from a playoff.
Oklahoma +1.5 vs. Alabama
Friday night action in Norman Oklahoma, you have to love it. The Sooners defense is good. They rank in the top ten nationally in points per game, yards per game, yards per play, and third down efficiency. On offense they rank outside the top 50 in all of those categories. An interesting note, OU ranks no.1 in Red Zone efficiency, converting 100% of their trips inside the 20. Is this a must win game for Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer? Is he already mentally looking for property in Ann Arbor? On the field, will the Crimson Tide offense be healthy? That unit has battled injuries in key spots the past few weeks. Quarterback Ty Simpson is banged up. If the Crimson Tide offense has to depend on running back Jam Miller they will be in trouble. The Sooners will be able to pounce. Hopefully the Oklahoma offense actually shows up, it feels like a lifetime ago where OU quarterback John Mateer was a favorite for the Heisman.
Oklahoma +1.5
Miami +3.5 vs. Texas A&M
The Hurricanes defense is the best in the country from my perspective Their defensive line has NFL size and athleticism. Itās ability to generate pressure with the front four has caused havoc for opponents this season. It also allows a talented Miami secondary to roam free and make big plays. A&M quarterback Marcel Reed, has struggled when under pressure and as we saw when the Aggies played Texas, when Reed is rattled he turns the ball over. The key to this game will depend on the A&M defense generating pressure. Miami QB Carson Beck is a vet who has played in big games and big game settings. However, he is still prone to having bad games where he turns the ball over too much. Getting him off his mark and off time will be essential for the Aggies if they want to stay alive in this one. A stat that jumped out to me while doing my research is the A&M defense only forced three interceptions the entire season. Digging deeper, their pass rush has mostly feasted on Utah St. and Mississippi St. but has been more routine when playing better opponents. One final note, the line for this one has been the biggest mover of the week dropping from 4.5-3.5 and as I publish this, Iām seeing the line at 3 in multiple books.
Miami +3.5
Tulane +17.5 vs. Ole Miss
Welcome to the soap opera that is college football. Somehow Lane Kiffinās ghost is still all over this game. That means one thing, mess. Because thatās all Lane does is mess, every program he touches eventually becomes mess. Now itās the Rebels turn. Interviews from players throughout the week show a program that is maybe not as focused as they should be. Players are exploring options for next year. A chunk of the staff is technically working for another school. Itās a lot. Whatās interesting is Tulane is is the exact same position, yet you donāt hear any of the mess. Jon Sumrall is actually coaching two teams as heās already began his tenure at Florida while guiding the Green Wave through the playoffs, and yet it seems more logical than what the Rebels are doing. These two teams met earlier in the season and it was all Ole Miss. They are the more talented team from top to bottom. I expect this game to be different. Thereās too many distractions around the Rebels, while Tulane is approaching this game with intent. There are signs the line is beginning to creep down with a few 16ās available if you want them.
Tulane +17.5
Oregon -20.5 vs. James Madison
Unlike the Ole Miss game, there are no signs of this line going down. Iām anticipating it will continue to creep up as we approach gametime. There are some 21ās and 22ās out there already and Iād expect we see some 23ās and maybe a 24 by kickoff Saturday night. The Ducks are the better team top to bottom. James Madison has talent but they have not seen anything like what they will experience Saturday night in Eugene. A program that likes to control the ball and chew up clock, the Dukes will need to finish their drives if they want to keep this one close. Dan Lanning is a bit of a mad man as a coach and tends to enjoy these sort of games to see what he can get out of his team. Only twice this season has Oregon failed to cover a double digit spread, once in a rain storm against Wisconsin the other time they game up a couple of garbage time TDās to Northwestern. I expect the Ducks to be on point.
Oregon -20.5.
