Last Week 3-2
Alright it’s Week 1 and this is not a drill. College football is back. Last week I got off to a solid start with my Week 0 games going 3-2 not too bad given the slim pickings. This week there are more games and more opportunities to make money cause Dragon wants a new house.
Middle Tennessee +40 vs. Alabama
Bama had a down year and they are done, Saban is a broken man and the run is over… In reality 39.5 is a massive number and history has shown us that while Saban likes to flex his muscle he does not run up the score on weak opponents, and he’s not going to leave his guys out there and risk any unnecessary injuries.
Bama has some questions (I use that term loosely) at QB and we will likely see three guys taking snaps on Saturday as the Tide look to find their go to starter. This could cause some hiccups or at least throttle the offense a bit.
Really I’m just hoping Middle Tennessee can find a way to score a TD.
Middle Tennessee St. +40
UNC -2.5 vs. South Carolina Over 64.5
The Tar Heels lost a lot of talent on offense this past offseason. But they still have Drake Maye and he is getting all types of hype from the media, and honestly he deserves it. UNC’s defense is the true problem for the Heels in this game. They were in the bottom 30 last season and they return the core of that same unit. Meanwhile South Carolina finished last season on high thanks to Spencer Rattler finally emerging as the quarterback many thought he would be when he entered college.
There’s going to be points score in this one and I expect a lot of them. I also think there’s just enough of a talent edge for the Tar Heels to squeak out a win.
UNC-2.5 Over 64.5
Florida St. -2.5 vs. LSU
I love the Sunday night game on Labor Day weekend. Last year this was a great game in the Dome and now we get the return match and it’s in the Noles’ backyardish. There is a ton of hype around the 'Noles this season and justifiably so. FSU has a great offensive line and quarterback Jordan Travis could use this game as his introduction to the national spotlight.
LSU will miss Maason Smith on the defensive line. If they cannot get pressure on Travis he will have a field day with the weapons he has around him. Of note, Brian Kelly is 0-5 ATS in his last five games when favored by less than three points. I know LSU and Brian Kelly have this game circled, but if the 'Noles have any aspirations of making a post season run they must take care of business in the opener and I think they do.
ODU +16 vs. Virginia Tech
Old Dominion has had Va. Tech’s number the past two seasons finding ways to over come 6 point and 18 point dogs and winning outright. The Hokies are still trying to find their way in the post Frank Beamer era… damn this is taking forever. There’s rumblings out of Blacksburg that Va. Tech expects to take a step forward this season but I’m not ready to bite just yet. 16 feels like a lot and I’m going with that gut feeling.
Purdue -3.5 vs. Fresno St.
The Boilermakers are starting over Ryan Walters is now the man in charge and Purdue hit the transfer portal for quarterback Hudson Card from Texas. They also brought in OC Graham Harrell from West Virginia to jump start the offense. There’s going to be some growing pains but these are the ingredients for success.
For Fresno St. they will be breaking in a new quarterback with Jake Haener moving on. This line originally opened at -6.5 and it’s dropped, I honestly feel like the shift is due to folks shying away from Purdue now that Brohm has moved on to Louisville. Yes, the Boilermakers need to replace a ton of pieces, but they are still solid. Toss in an early start time and a cross country trip for the Fresno and I like Purdue.
Clemson vs. Duke +13
Who said the ACC is dead? What better way to wrap up the Labor Day weekend than the match up of two football powerhouses. Duke is coming off a 9-win season (I don’t remember that at all.) and they are returning basically everyone. They are at home and with all the country locked in you can believe they are going to put on a show.
Clemson is still the face of the ACC until proven otherwise, but recent history has shown they’ve struggled to put these sort of games to rest. Another year, more changes and questions on offense. This could be a sleepy performance for the Tigers.
Virginia vs. Tennessee Over 56
Finally we get to see the Hoos take the field. There’ are numerous threads on this forum detailing the struggles of this program and the current team, and honestly all of them are accurate. What I will say given how things finished last season, seeing the Orange and Blue uni’s take the field on Nashville will be a welcome sight as we all begin to move forward.
The line has the Vols favored by 28 and that feels about right. I usually avoid big spreads but I have no reason to doubt Milton won’t light up a solid but undermanned Virginia defense. I could go on about Virginia’s offense, but I just don’t know enough about them to provide a good read. I do think they will be improved but the bar is low.
The O/U is set at 56 which feels strangely low. The Vols could hit that over on their own while pitching a shutout. I do think the Virginia offense puts some points on the board to do their part and Tennessee will have no issues picking up the rest of the slack.