Summer is over, and we are kicking off the 2026 College Football Season. My guy @Jwhelan33 been banging his head against a wall for 5 weeks waiting for this moment, so letās not waste any time.
As always Dragonās College Football Picks are brought to you by Dragonās Lair Training, Tall Pines Curated Gifts, and White Claw Lime.
TCU -7.5 vs. UNC under 46.5
This spread is all over the place. It opened at 6.5 early and now most places are showing 9.5. I found it at 7.5 at Bet MGM. If you can find that I think itās a good one to lock in. The Tar Heels are falling apart, and I honestly believe Belichick is coaching for his job this season and that begins with needing a win against TCU. Lose that games and things can go south quickly. Not to be outdone, TCU has itās own share of internal turmoil. That said, I think this game is tight, but the Horned Frogs have enough to get over the hump. Word on the ground is the weather will be awful in Dublin on Saturday. Windy and rainy, it will absolutely be a factor in the game, and slow things down for two offensive units that were likely to struggle anyways on their first hit out of the season.
TCU-7 Under 46.5
USC vs. San Jose St Under 61
Is this a make or break year for Lincoln Riley? I think so. Itās year five in LA and things have been okay. You donāt pay Lincoln Riley for okay. Playing Group of 5 opponents is where the Trojans thrive under Riley, averaging 56 points per game. Iām going with the under here because I donāt know that San Jose St, will keep up their end of the deal. We could see a 48-3 score here and still comfortably hit the under.
Under 61.
FSU -30.5 vs New Mexico St
Add Mike Norvell to the list of coaches who must win today. Virginia broke FSU last season and they have not been right since. Thereās a legit chance that Mike Norvell could be out of a job by November if the 'Noles get out to a slow start again. They have SMU and Bama over the next two weeks, FSU needs the win on Saturday and they need to win big to build some confidence before playing a brutal September schedule.
FSU -30.5
Hawaii +4.5 vs. Stanford
Stanford needs to get a win in this week. The Cardinals have Miami next week before shipping east the following week. The issue is the Cardinals are not a talented team. They are absolutely facing a rebuild with an aging and unknown QB in Davis Warren. Thereās too much turnover and question marks for a team that struggled last year. Hawaii kept the majority of their core together, and come in as a complete unit.
Hawaii +4.5
UVA -4 vs. NC State
Injuries are the name of the game here, and the Wolfpack have become a hot exciting pick here recently. But I have to back the Hoos in the spot. The 17 guys on the injury report cause the sharps to show up and hammer the line down two points in a matter of minutes. A quick 2pt drop has scared a lot of people off, and for me makes this game look interesting. CJ Bailey has become a hot name at QB for NC State. In a world where you donāt often see returning QBās he stands out. The Wolfpack also return RB Jayden Scott, who will be a problem coming out of the backfield. The question surrounding NC State is will there line hold up? They struggled at times last year, and there were not any noticeable upgrades added during the offseason.
For the Hoos I expect a slow start, not because the team is bad, but because it takes time when youāre breaking in that many new pieces. The positive and itās a big one is the most experienced unit on the offense is the OLine who are all 24 year old men. That is something an OC can lean on as his new QB settles in to a new scheme. We saw last season Virginia wants to run the ball and assert their physical dominance. The Hoos are at their best when they chew clock and yards. Itās not pretty but it works. I expect a healthy dose of that especially in a season opener.
Hoos -4.
