Thereās a little chill in the air this morning, which can only mean one thing: September is here, and with it the greatest time of year ā college football season. And yes, that also means Dragonās Picks are back.
Opening weekend (I donāt believe in āWeek 0ā) is my favorite sporting day of the year. Before we start firing off bets, letās hit a few notes from last season.
As always Dragonās College Football Picks are brought to you by our proud sponsors, Dragonās Lair Training, Tall Pines Market & Communications, and chicken nuggets, yea theyāre still that good
Quick Recap: 2024, the Year of the Dog
Dragon hit 64% of his plays last year ā personal best, thank you very much. But across the board, it was the season of the underdog. Seriously, the numbers are wild:
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231 outright upsets by dogs in FBS vs. FBS matchups.
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Thatās dogs winning 29% of opportunities, the highest in modern history.
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Dogs covered 51.2% of the time last year.
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Average point spread dipped to a 40-year low of 10.44.
Translation? Games are tighter, favorites arenāt as safe, and Dragon is drinking top shelf. What does it all mean for this year? Honestly, your guess is as good as mine. Maybe I just like sounding smart before we get to the real reason youāre here: the picks.
Florida St. +14.5 vs. Alabama
I have no clue what Florida State is yet, but I do know this: they arenāt a 2-win team anymore. They rebuilt the roster, finally shook off the hangover from the 2023 playoff snub, and Tommy Castellanos + Gus Malzahn (yep, still around) should inject some juice into the offense. Keep an eye on freshman RB Ousmane Kromah ā he might announce himself early.
Meanwhile, Alabama is coming off their worst season in two decades. Yes, it is a privilege to consider 9 wins a disappointment. Sabanās gone, Kalen DeBoer is in. His defense gave up points on 85% of road red-zone trips while being a road team last year. Add in a run D that ranked 52nd, and youāve got a situation that was unimaginable had Saban still been roaming the sidelines.
Vegas knew exactly what they were doing setting this line. It opened at 12.5 which was an absolute trap but the money has shifted and now weāre in a place where bettors can make a few bucks.Not calling for the outright upset (havenāt hit the bourbon yet), but in Doak, +14.5 feels like a gift.
Pick: FSU +14.5
Texas vs. OSU OVER 47.5
This line has been all over the place. Opened at 50, got hammered down, now sits around 47.5. Thatās low enough that Iāve flipped from āstay awayā to the āgive me that overā.
Both teams are breaking in new QBs, I expect the defenses to start faster. But OSUās receivers are too good not to break a few big plays, and with the Buckeyes replacing eight defensive starters, Texas and Arch Manning are going to find their spots as well.
Chasing the over can be a masochistic practice, but Iām here for it.
If this dips to 47 (or bless the gambling gods, 46.5), Iām all over it.
Pick: Over 47.5
TCU -3.5 vs. UNC
Do I believe Bill Belichick can turn 2-star recruits into 4-stars at UNC? Maybe eventually. Week 1? Nah. I am of the belief that the Tar Heel team we see in Week 10 will look and perform very differently than the team we will see in Week 1. For the intents of this post, I only care about the Week 1 version.
New UNC QB Gio Lopez (formerly of South Alabama) is taking a massive jump in competition. TCU isnāt world beaters on the defensive side, but they will be able to throw athleticism and schemes at Lopez that he is not used to experiencing. UNCās O-line is rebuilt and untested. And while Belichick might scheme them into respectability, Iām not betting on it this early.
Pick: TCU -3.5
Notre Dame -2.5 vs. Miami UNDER 49.5
This one makes me nervous, but here we go.
Notre Dame is rolling out true freshman QB CJ Carr, a name that some around the program think should not be the starting signal caller, and Miamiās new QB Carson Beck is trying to reboot his Heisman hype in South Beach. The total opened at 54, dropped steadily, and could sneak under 49 by kickoff.
Why? Because Marcus Freeman coaches defense-first, and Mario Cristobal loves to bleed clock when ahead. Freemanās 3-for-3 on hitting unders at ND, and I like that trend.
The spread is the trickier option for me but this one comes down to a coaching matchup and I think Notre Dame has one of the best in the country in Marcus Freeman. Cristobal is a great recruiter and knows how to build a culture, but his in-game decision leaves me wanting more from him.
Pick: Notre Dame -2.5, Under 49.5Notre Dame -2.5 UNDER 49.5
LSU vs. Clemson -3.5 UNDER 57.5
This is Daboās best chance to prove the anti-portal thing works. Sixteen returning starters, NFL talent all over the field, and a nasty defensive line led by Peter Woods and TJ Parker.
LSUās offensive line is brand new and about to run into that buzzsaw. As for the total ā 57.5 feels high. You need touchdowns, not field goals, to get there, and I donāt see both sides clicking that cleanly.
This is another game where coaching could be the biggest deciding factor. Dabo generally has a knack for getting his teams prepared to play in the big state. Brian Kelly generally has a knack for dropping the ball in these situations. LSU has dropped their last three season openers, all against talented teams. You could make the argument that Kelly puts too much stake and pressure in these situations and the teams feel and crack. Or you could just say that Brian Kelly is a fraud.
Clemson -2.5 Under 57.5
Tennessee vs Syracuse UNDER 51.5
Heupelās offense has the ātrack meetā rep, but donāt be fooled: it doesnāt always translate to points, especially without SEC OPOY Dylan Sampson, who was the engine last year.
New QB Joey Aguilar missed spring ball, the O-line is retooled, and the WR room is green. We saw last season, when Sampsonās out, Heupel slows things down. He generally finds ways to protect his QBs by making the playbook easier on them. Thatās what I expect here.
Syracuse will do their part to hit the under by having a total reset on offense. Quarterback Kyle McCord, Running back LeQuint Allen and the top 3 wideouts are all gone. The new Orange offense will struggle to find their footing against a Tennessee team that still features SEC talent.
Under 51.5
Virginia -11.5 vs. Costal Carolina
If you want the deep dive, check our season preview pod. For now, hereās the short version:
If UVA runs for 275 yards and 32+ carries, this is a blowout. Simple as that. Itās no secret that Tony Elliott wants this team to pound the rock.They did it last season against Coastal and dominated.This year the Hoos facea Coastal D that hasnāt upgraded like its offense, that spells trouble.
Control the clock, keep the Air Raid off the field, cover the spread.
Pick: Virginia -11.5
