🏈 🎰 Dragon's College Football Picks Season 6 - Week 1

[BDragon]

Last Week 2-4
Season 2-4

Week 0 happened, I usually like early season betting because you can play the margins and take advantage of larger spreads. That did not happen last week. The transfer era makes early season games more unpredictable than ever. But I’m not here to make excuses, I’m here to make money. Let’s get to picking games.

As always Dragon’s College Football Picks are brought to you by Dragon’s Lair Training, Tall Pines Curated Gifts and the ghost of Dabo Sweeney.

Miami (Oh) vs. Pitt Under 48.5
I don’t like showing love to JCrew U, mainly because I don’t have a lot of respect for a school where the cool thing to do is wear long sleeve shirts over short sleeve shirts over long sleeve shirts, all with the collars popped. Putting that aside, one thing Miami does well is defense. DC Chuck Brechin has finished top three in the MAC in scoring defense all four years he’s run this unit. Taking it a step further, since 2022, the RedHawks defense has accumulated 133 sacks, 83 forced turnovers and 22 All-MAC honors. Brechin should be getting looks for a shot at the big chair. For the Panthers, I’m not as high on them as some ACC pundits. My concerns are based around can 2nd year QB Mason Heintschel make a jump. He provided a spark for the program as a freshman last year, but diving into the numbers Pitt’s passing attack was not good. They ranked 119th in passing and Heintshel threw eight picks and got sacked 34 times. The offense needs to take a major step.
Under 48.5

Oregon -24.5 vs. Boise St
I’ll be honest I like this Oregon team, long term this might finally be the they get the job done. But it all starts on Saturday and picking up a big win in week 1. Dante Moore is the likely Heisman favorite entering the season. Oregon head coach Dan Lanning lives for games like this. Major concerns about the Boise St offensive line trying to hold up against arguably the best defensive line in football. Even when the backups come in the Ducks will trot out Dylan Raiola. I love my Ducks
Oregon -24.5

Miami -23.5.vs Stanford
Is part of this pick my personal vendetta against Stanford after they ruined my cover last week? Yes. I expect to see an improved Miami offense this season. They were bruising and played in the National Championship last season, and the bulk of that team is returning. Similar to Virginia the Canes will rely on an experienced offensive line that will brutalize a Stanford defense that struggled to contain Hawaii last week. The Stanford offensive line is also all on IR, not the situation you want with Miami looking to get their first hits in for the season.
Miami -23.5

Cal +2.5 vs. UCLA
ACC in the Sheets meets my beloved Pac-12 After Dark. I won’t lie Cal HC Tosh Lupoi is making me nervous after he came out earlier in the week and said, “We’re a little behind as far as preparation for the opponent.” It’s a good quote from a savvy coach, but that makes me nervous coming from a new coach. All that said I’m going with Cal purely because of the potential QB play and what JKS brings to the Bears.
Cal +2.5

Houston -20.5 vs. Oregon St
Houston is very good, a home game in the heat, with an early KO for the Beavers. I think there’s too many moving parts for Oregon St to expect to be ready on Saturday. A new QB making the jump from the FCS on the road in a hostile environment is a tough welcome to the show moment.
Houston -20.5

UNLV vs. Hawaii U55
Forgive me father for I am betting based on others misery. Take a look at the expected weather in Hawaii over the weekend. Typhoon/El Nino Storms all weekend. If they play I’m taking the under.
Under 55

Tarleton State +2.5 vs Bowling Green
BG might be the worst D1 team. They ended up with a D2 QB beating out an Oregon transfer for the QB1 job. The Texans gave up 30 last week in their season opener, but that’s not scaring me away. On the offensive side of the ball Kaden Anderson and Dylan Hines did anything they wanted to. You won’t find this one on the TV, and if you’re in the area, you’ll find a better game watching the BG Rugby 2nd side taking on IU.
Tarleton State +2.5

[5sheff]

I always dread early season games because I know nothing, and that feeling is exacerbated in this era of college football with all the roster turnover. Even so, I’m willing to try a small handful of games this week.

E Michigan -2.5 San Jose St.

Eastern Michiga isn’t great, but they have gone 8-3-1 ATS at home over the last two years. They are starting a 7th year QB who was very solid last year. Long trip for San Jose St., and while last week’s 42-26 score against USC looked respectable, the score was 35-3 after three quarters before USC let off the gas and gave up some late scores. Give me the Eagles to cover less than a field goal against the Spartans.

Hawaii +3 vs UNLV

Hmmm … I wasn’t following the weather forecasts on the west coast. Oh well, it’s all part of it when you’re playing on the islands. Hawaii is 13-1 ATS at home over the last two years.

Western Kentucky vs. Nevada, under 52.5

Western lost 8 of its top 9 offensive linemen in the offseason and it should take the incoming transfers a little while to gel. Nevada averaged less than 18 points per game last year, and as you might expect, was one of the worst red zone offenses in the nation. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky’s red zone defense was best in the nation in keeping teams out of the end zone. Both teams are starting sophomore QBs that had mixed results last year. The only previous meeting was last year in Bowling Green, KY and the score was 13-10 heading to the 4th quarter before ending in a 31-16 final.

Marshall +24 at Penn St

This year’s Penn St. squad is essentially Iowa St. relocated 900 miles east - complete with Rocco Becht at QB. I wouldn’t trust Iowa St. to give up 24 points to a team with a competent offense so it stands to reason …

Mississippi St. -28.5 vs. Louisiana-Monroe

Out of all the big spread mismatches this week, this one is the one I feel best about. Line isn’t crazy large. Mississippi St. rarely gets to blow anyone out so they will relish the opportunity. Over last four years, Louisiana Monroe has played these power 4 conference foes: Alabama, Northwestern, Auburn, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Texas, and Alabama (again). They lost those games by 73, 35, 48, 34, 44, 32, 42, and 56. More cowbell.

[BDragon]

Love that Iowa St pick

It’s still early. But I wouldnt be surprised if you can trace early success to team continuity in a meaningful manor

[BDragon]

Nothing like waking up with a win under your belt. Getting the large coffee this AM

[jazznutUVA]

Put that cheese on that burger… no one is stopping you now!

[Jwhelan33]

Sorry @BDragon .. Go flames and Keydets today! Can’t stand JMU or Tech fans !!

[HOORVA]

I just turned on Liberty-JMU and something about the script font “flames” is giving me fast food chicken chain vibes.

[Jerome]

WVU is going to be a tough game. Their offense looks dynamic

[Hoohoohoo]

Coastal isn’t very good either. It looks like Tre Guerra who was one of our QB targets didn’t even win Coastal’s starting gig.

[Hooandtrue]

I like the ohio QB. sells the fake handoffs well

[Pantsmith-33]

I’m not scared of WVU in the slightest. Not after this game lol

[Pantsmith-33]

It’s because a degree from there is about as valuable as a degree from a fast food chicken chain

[BDragon]

Checking in on the scores. Clearly I don’t know ball

[Hoohoohoo]

Checking in on other QBs associated with UVA…

AC had a decent stat day. Ton of drops by his receivers. Huskers board looked very similar comments though - plays with fire, tries to force things though.

Lagway looking inconsistent. Can see the arm strength, going through his reads and the accuracy. Looks like a NFL QB. But then missed an easy throw badly, lost a snap, lost a fumble hurdling a defender and also throws a bad pick.

[BDragon]

Lagaway is going to cost a GM their job one day in the not so distant future.

[HOORVA]

This BAYLOR GAME

[Jwhelan33]

Great play call for Baylor at the end. DJ needed to lead him a touch more and they win.

[HOORVA]

Or if he’d been able to stretch the ball forward as he turned. What a bummer.

[BDragon]

That was a wild ending. Dj could have led the receiver more. But the receiver also put up no fight with ball in hand

[BDragon]

Tarlton st knocking off BG salvaged a miserable weekend