Last Week 4-5
Season 4-5
College football is back, which means my weekends (and soon my weeknights) are absolutely wrecked for the next 13 weeks. If I want to keep Ms. Dragon happyāand not gamble away the kidsā college fundāI need to start stacking some winners. Last week I went 4-5, mostly missing on the O/Us. Iāll blame that on some teams still shaking off the rust and Arch Manningās bum shoulder. Week 2 is all about overreactions to small sample sizes. Letās roll.
As always, Dragonās College Picks are brought to you by Dragonās Lair Training, Tall Pines Marketing & Communications, and the Free Kawhi Fundāwe just want trees to live.
Iowa vs. Iowa St. Under 42.5
I want to take the over here. For 12 months now Iāve heard that Iowa football in investing in offense. Last year Iowa hit the over in 10 of 13 games. But guess who one of those unders was against? Yep- the Cyclones. Fourteen of the last 16 have gone under. In the past decade, both teams have topped 20 points once in this rivalry. If the trends arenāt enough evidence for you, last week new Iowa QB Mark Gronowski went 8-15 for 44 yards againstā¦. 
drop
Under 41.5
Kansas vs. Missouri -7
I am close to regretting this one and the digital ink hasnāt even dried yet. The Boarder War is back after a brief 12 years cease fire and I think this could be a fun game. Missouri introduced new QB Bo Pribula last week in a 56 point beat down of Central Arkansas. The most interesting fact I learned researching this game is the overall level of success Mizzu has experience recently Only two teams, have a better record than Mizzu in SEC play over the last two seasons, Alabama and Georgia. Georgia and Alabama, damn good company to be in. The Tigers defense has given up 20.1 ppg over the last 27 games. If this program was in the ACC theyād be Clemson. Why am I picking Kansas? In college football having a savvy QB is like having a savvy PG in the NCAA tournament. They just find ways to will their teams along. Jalon Daniels is that for the Jayhawks. Heās rushed for over 1,000 yards in his career and thrown for over 7,000, a proper dual threat QB. Kansas won their first two games outscoring opponents 77-14. IN that stretch Daniels threw 7 TDs against 1 pick.
Kansas +7
Texas vs. San Jose St. Under 52.5
The Longhorns have a history of stepping up in these situations and showing out. In a similar spot last season Texas beat Colorado St 52-0 and I had the under 49. Did I learn my lesson? Yes, just find a better line and double down. Thereās lot of rumors that Arch had a bum shoulder going into last weeks game against OSU. It doesnāt excuse all of his play against the Buckeyes but it does explain a lot of it. The Longhorns will want to protect Arch and keep him healthy for SEC I donāt expect him to play long or make use of his best weapon his legs. This is a take care of business game.
Under 52.5
Missouri St. +9.5 vs. Marshall
Marshall is not good. There roster was decimated by transfers once Charles Huff left as Head Coach. The talent level simply is not there to put up big numbers. Last time we saw Missouri St they gave up 73 points to USC. The Heard may not score 70 in four games this season. If you can shop this line and find it at 10 take it because the money is slowly hammering it down.
Missouri St +9.5
USC -28,5 vs. Georgia Southern
As I alluded in my previous pick, USC likes to run up the score on non-con teams. Itās a Lincoln Riley special. Donāt believe me, look at the numbers.
USC in 2022
vs. Rice 66-14
vs. Fresno State 45-17
USC in 2023
vs. San Jose State 56-28
vs. Nevada 66-14
USC in 2024
vs. Utah State 48-0
USC in 2025
vs. Missouri State 73-13
Last week the starters scored five TDās in five drives. The Trojans take advantage of these matchups.
USC -28.5
Michigan vs. Oklahoma -4.5
The Wolverines have not played a non-con road game since 2018. How is that even possible? Saturday they travel to Norman Oklahoma to take on the Sooners and they will start their 18 year old freshman QB. Iām very high on Bryce Underwood, and think all the money UofM spent to get him was worth it, but I feel for the kid going into Saturday. The Michigan offensive line play concerns me. They had seven situations of third-and-seven (or greater) against New Mexico and finished with just two conversions. Third and long against this OU unit that is focused on defense and and HC Brent Venables is an expert on bringing pressure on third and long situations. This line has been all over, opened at -3, jumped to -7. I like where itās settling.
Oklahoma -4.5
Duke +3.5 vs. Illinois
Sometimes I get way too excited when I see a team walking into a trap, and I think thatās exactly whatās about to happen to Illinois on Saturday. Entering the game ranked in the top 15 in the nations they should be a lock if it wasnāt for two key factors. After being tied with Elon at the half last week, Duke QB Darian Mensah was nearly perfect in the second half. Mensah threw for almost 400 yards and picked his opponent apart. After being one of the more coveted portal targets it only took Mensah 2 quarters to find his groove. The other fact is Duke HC Many Diaz can coach defense. Last week if you watched closely you saw an Illinois offensive line that just didnāt dominate in the manor they should have. They allowed some pressures, and seemed to have some confusion handling basic stunts and moves up front. The public may be leaning on the ranked team, but the smart money is going with the underdog.
Duke +3.5
Oregon -27.5 vs. Oklahoma State Over 55.5
Mike Gundy poked the bear earlier this week, when he audited Oregonās spending in NIL. Dan Lanning one who is not shy of a microphone put Gundy back in his corner verbally and his Ducks will do the same on the field. The last team that went at the Ducks in this manor was Colorado in 2023 and they got boat raced by 36 points. The Ducks are superior in every aspect of the game and they now have bulletin board material to inspire the train wreck.
Oregon -27.5 Over 55.5
Virginia +3.5 vs. NC State
A make or break game in Week 2? Sure why not. Last week we were introduced to the new look Hoos and I like what I saw. They wee efficient and took care of business against an overmatched team, and they did it without having to show their hand on defense and offense. Thatās what good teams do, and dare I say, the Hoos are good this season. Looking back at the film NC State is not exactly the boogey man I thought they were heading into the season. I saw a Tujaque coached Oline that struggled against ECU. Thatās an area Hoos can exploit and use their depth to provide fresh legs and different looks throughout the game.
Hoos +3.5
