🏈 🎰 Dragon's College Football Picks Season 6 - Week 2

[BDragon]

Last week 3-4
Season 5-8

Week two of the college football season is here, and I am ready to go. We have some interesting matchups on the schedule, the Hoos play on Friday night so my weekend will be clear to enjoy and indulge. Last week was a rocky start but I got to 3-4 and I’ll take that given all the unknowns.

Ohio State +1.5 vs. Texas
Sark is not great in these situations. He’s 2-6 in top ten matchups and has a long history of dropping games when his teams are close favorites. The Longhorn faithful are eager to see the Sark era take off and have that signature win, Saturday’s game won’t ruin the Longhorns season, but it could ruin Sarks Texas tenure. I hate backing @chavlicek15 Buckeye’s but this feels like a spot where Ryan Day is going to make a mark.
Ohio St. +1.5

Mississippi St. +1.5 vs. Minnesota
Are the Gophers good? They certainly looked the part of a good team last weekend. In all honesty I like this Minnesota team, what I don’t like is their history in 50/50 games and this one is the ultimate pick’em. You can find the number on either side. I’m going with the Bulldogs, because I think they’re a little underrated and the 50/50 game affect.

Michigan +5.5 vs. Oklahoma Under 43.5
I should probably sit this one out, but it’s a big game and I want a little extra juice while watching. Michigan should be 0-1, but we all know what happened last week in the Big House. The bigger takeaway for me was how bad the Wolverines offense looked. Bryce Underwood may be the NIL era’s first bust player, and the two sides are likely stuck with each other for the foreseeable future. All that said, I do think there has been too much of an overreaction to Michigan. I see this as a game they keep close through three quarters and then Oklahoma pulls away. If it’s close it means it’s a defensive battle, and that’s why I’m taking the Under as well.
Michigan +5.5 and the Under 43.5

Duke +6 vs. Illinois Under 51.5
The Illinois offense looked rough last week despite hanging 42 points on UAB. Looking deeper you see a team that held the ball for just over 18 minutes, and were aided by a pick-six. Illinois was also outgained by UAB last weekend. Duke is feeling the growing pains of losing QB Darian Mensah. Last week they barely put up 17 points against Tulane. This will not be a pretty game.
Duke +6 and the Under 51.5

UCLA vs. San Diego St. Over 54.5
There’s a ton of UCLA money that has flooded the market on this one. The spread opened at 10.5 and is sitting at 12.5 only four days later. I expect the money to flow until gametime. There was some early concern after Niko got dinged up last week but all indications are he will be good to go on Saturday. For the Aztecs they have an offensive minded coach in Sean Lewis that is able to move the ball.
Over 54.5

Norfolk St +47 vs. Virginia
I love my (checks notes for Norfolk St mascot) Spartans! This actually has everything to do with CTE and nothing to do with Norfolk State. Given the report that the Hoos will still be without the top end of their receiving group, I’m expecting to see a repeat of week one. That means a heavy dose of Beau and the boys running right at the Spartans defense. Physically the Hoos OLine should be able to impose their will, and I expect them to start from the opening snap. I think Virginia wins easily, after racking up 250+ on the ground. I’d be shocked if Beau throws the ball more than 15 times. A final score of 47-7 feels good. A 47 point spread is massive, and given the ball control and conservative nature of the offense, combined with CTE being a gentlemen who will likely protect his colleague Mike Vick, I expect them to call the dogs off early in the second half. Last note, this is a great spot to get Kam back on the field for a limited number of snaps so he can get his legs under him. Love how that worked out.
Norfolk St +47

[5sheff]

Nice picks this week. I was leaning Mississippi State, but backed out at the last minute. I like OSU, Norfolk State, and the Duke/Illinois under. I’m staying far away from Michigan/Oklahoma, but I think you are on the right side (see below).

I’m 1-4 so far this year, and not happy about it.

Alabama -10 at Kentucky

In the head-to-head series between these two teams, the road team is 7-1 ATS over the last eight. Keelon Russell looked really dynamic in the win over East Carolina. I’ll take the Tide.

Utah -12.5 vs. Arkansas

Utah was 9-4 ATS last year and Arkansas was 4-8 including 10 consecutive losses straight up. Nothing that happened last week makes me think anything has changed. Utah beat Idaho 66-14 and Arkansas managed only 3 yards per carry against North Alabama, a 40 point underdog. Give me the home team.

Sacramento St. +18 vs. Fresno St.

Granted, Fresno St. played big-boy Southern Cal last week, but even so, 116 yards of total offense and 1.3 yards per rush is pathetic. Nothing about those statistics indicates they should be favored by more than three scores over a team with a pulse. And Sac St. seems very much alive, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Last week they shut out Mississippi Valley St. 52-0 and the week before that lost 28-17 to Eastern Michigan, holding the victorious Eagles to 348 yards of offense and 2.3 yards per rush. I’ll take the points in what I hope is a low scoring contest.

Navy -4 at Florida Atlantic

Florida Atlantic gave up 397 yards rushing to Navy last year in a 42-32 loss which looks closer than the game actually was. The Owls scored two touchdowns in the last two minutes to climb within two scores. Is FAU’s rush defense better this year? I don’t think so. They gave up 281 rushing yards and a 6.9 yard average to Florida in week 1. Meanwhile Navy rushed for 506 yards against Towson in a 42-15 victory. I look for more of the same on Saturday.

Ohio St. +1.5 at Texas

I watched a good bit of the Longhorns game last week against Texas St., and the 59-7 final score was misleading. Yes, the UT offense had its way against the terrible Bobcat defense. But on the other side of the ball … Texas St. was moving it into Texas territory on virtually every possession. They missed a chip shot field goal and had a few sloppy turnovers that kept them from potentially putting 17 or 24 points on the board. Overall the Bobcats managed 349 yards of total offense and 3.9 yards per rushing attempt. I like Ohio St. in this one by two scores.

Tulsa at Sam Houston St., under 51.5

Tulsa is riding high after its second straight upset of Oklahoma St. I get the feeling that they are eating some of that “rat poison” Nick Saban was always talking about. And even in their big victory last week, the final was 24-10 and they managed 361 yards of offense, which is fine but far from impressive. Meanwhile Sam Houston went on the road to Troy and acquitted themselves quite well, holding the Trojans to 342 yards of offense before losing 24-21. I’m looking for more tepid offense from these teams and scores in the 20s.

North Dakota St. -2 at Air Force

FCS powerhouse N Dakota St. is now in the FBS Mountain West. They are used to winning and are already 2-0 on the season, most notably with a strong 33-7 win against Jacksonville St. Air Force has its QB, Liam Szarka back after injury last year, and hopes are high. But their week 1 result against Duquesne is worrisome. 34-0 sounds like a great result, but since 2023, Duquesne has played 7 FBS teams of varying quality (Coastal Carolina, Boston College, West Virginia, Toledo, Akron, Pittsburgh, and Air Force). Leaving out the Air Force, game Duquesne lost by an average score of 56-8. This line has moved down from N. Dakota being favored by 6.5 points down to 1.5 and now back up to 2. I’m thrilled - I’ll take the Bison minus a couple.

Arizona St. +14.5 at Texas A&M

Texas A&M is just 2-5 ATS in afternoon games over the last couple of years. Meanwhile, Kenny Dillingham and the Sun Devils are 14-9-1 ATS as underdogs. More than two touchdowns is too many; I’m taking the points.

UAB -10 vs. Louisiana Monroe

My only win last week was Mississippi St. covering 28 against Monroe, and I’m tempted to ride with Kamario Taylor and the Bulldogs as they head to Minnesota. But my head says that last week’s blowout had more to do with Warhawk incompetence than Bulldog excellence. Monroe gave up 762 yards of offense last week, including 345 yards on the ground. UAB went on the road to Illinois and handled the situation much better. The Blazers put up over 400 yards of offense (194 yards rushing) and had possession of the ball for over 41 minutes. Now they come home to face a far inferior opponent. I’m riding with the Blazers.

Other games I am interested in:

Cal at Syracuse (is Syracuse vastly improved? Will Cal be awed at playing in a dome for the first time this century?)

Mississippi St. at Minnesota (first regular season home game vs. SEC opponent since 1959)

Oklahoma at Michigan (sharp bettors keeping the line at 5.5 while the entire public runs to bet on the Sooners??)

Wake Forest at Purdue (I think I like Wake here)

LSU/La. Tech and Ole Miss/Charlotte (which favorite fails to cover in obvious trap game? Answer: LSU)

UTSA at Texas St. (will they clear the total of 66? I’m tempted)

Arizona at BYU (how good is BYU this year?)

[jastro2]

@BDragon

I expect them to call the dogs off early in the second half.

Nicely done

[chavlicek15]

@BDragon As you know it’s a big week for The Ohio State Buckeyes. I have been non-verbal since Wednesday as a small tribute to Woody Hayes because I am nervous about this one in Texas.

But I digress…. Go ‘Hoos And beat the…(checking Dragons post) the Spartans!

[BDragon]

Love these picks. You picked up on a few games I eyed and considered but eventually backed off.

I’d love to see that UK Bama line move 1 maybe 1.5 more and I’d just in on UK. As it stands, I think you’re on the right side. I’m curious to see how a first year QB does in what should be a rowdy Lexington environment.

Navy FAU I’m on the other side of you. I think FAU is better than what we saw against Florida last week, but obviously I don’t believe it enough to back them.

The Cal Cuse game is interesting. I think this is a big game for both schools. I like Cal with a slight edge.

Wake at Purdue is another interesting one I see life in the Boiler Makers but they aren’t there yet.

[4547Lambeth]

@5sheff

Will Cal be awed at playing in a dome for the first time this century?

At first I thought can this be true? Then I realized that Cuse is the only P4 that plays in a dome. Other than them, it’s UTSA and some FCS schools in the Dakotas/Montana/Idaho region.

[5sheff]

I thought maybe they might have played in one for a bowl game, but then I remembered that it was Cal.

[BDragon]

An official went down in the KU Mizzu game. I always assumed they had backup officials on call, turns out they do not