Last week 8-2 (Iām taking the big number of course)
Overall 12-6
Last week was fun, a couple of exciting games, even if they did not work out the way we wanted, and more importantly Dragon made some money. Week 3 of the college football season is here the leaves are beginning to fall of the trees at the Lair despite it being in the mid-80s got to love it. Despite some fun matchups this week, I was not blown away by the a lot of the lines I saw. It feels like Vegas is already smarting up, and the windows of opportunity are fading.
Dragonās College Picks are brought to you by Dragonās Lair Training, Tall Pines Marketing & Communications, and Steve Ballmer really just done did that.
Houston -4 vs. Colorado
Itās not the weekend if you donāt start on Friday. I expected Colorado to take a step back this season with the talent dump they experienced in the off-season, but I did not think the Buffs would be this bad. Colorado has problems on both sides of the ball. The Buffs used two QBās to get back Delaware at home last week and will start their third QB of the season against Houston tonight. The oline gave up five sacks against UD last week, the whole unit has struggled to find a rhythm The Buffs defense is a problem. They are 109th in allowing 10+ yards rushes from opponents and 85th on third down efficiency. Those are numbers that will scare any sensible better away.
Houston -4
Georgia -3.5 vs. Tennessee
A game I expect to avoid at the start of the week, but the familiar call of sweet action called me back. The line opened at -6 and sharp money has hammered it down to 3.5 and even 3 in some places. A lot of money flowed to the Vols in response to UGAās sluggish start to the season. Flying under the radar the Bulldogs have been banged up on their offensive line this season they expect to get two of those players back this weekend and with it an boost to their running game. /Hopefully this also frees Gunner Stockton to stop throwing screens and take some shots down field to loosen up the defense.
UGA -3.5
Oregon -27.5 vs. Northwestern Over 48.5
This one kicks off at 11 central and will be over by Noon central. The Ducks offense is a powerhouse. Last week they hung 69 on Gundy after he spoke out of turn, and I expect Head Coach Dan Lanning to keep the pain train rolling. On the season the Ducks are out scoring opponents 128-16 while averaging 10.2 yards per play. Meanwhile Northwestern gave up 269 yards on the ground to Tulane last week, and rank 122nd in EPA per rush allowed. This is another game where I expect Oregon to carry the load and get me a big cover and the over on their own.
Oregon -27.5 Over 48.5
Notre Dame -6.5 vs. Texas A&M Under 50.5
The Domers find themselves in a must win game in week 3. A second loss on the season would leave Notre Dame with only one more shot at a ranked team when they take on USC. I think the bye week did the Irish well as the regrouped from their loss against Miami. Texas A&M has feasted on lesser opposition this season and despite the wins, the stats tell a different story. They gave up 203 yards on the ground at 6.2 yards a carry UTSA in week 1. After facing an extremely good Miami front in Week 1, I expect Notre Dame to get back to their roots and run the ball tomorrow. Look for a heavy dose of Love and Price to steady a balanced attack led by first year CJ Carr.
Notre Dame -6.5 This is a line I will absolutely revisit in the morning and hit again if it takes a dip.
Miami -17.5 vs. South Florida Under 56.5
The buzz around South Florida is a fun story, and also likely the Bulls downfall in week 3. South Florida started the season with back-to-back upsets of ranked opponents and now they find themselves ranked in the top 25. However, dig into the stats and this is a team that has thrived on big plays, mistakes and a little luck. USF struggles to sustain drives, has trouble converting on third down. The Miami defense is stout. I mentioned what they did to Notre Dame in week 1. The defensive line is made in Cristabolās image, they are big strong and dominant. There is also no chance Miami walks into this game unprepared. I expect the Canes to slowly bludgeon the Bulls and plant their flag for the County of Dade.
Miami -17.5 Under 56.5
Delaware +10 vs. UConn
Dirty Birds gonna do work son. Delaware has shown life in their first year at the FBS level. Last week they racked up 400 yards of offense and 300 yards passing against Colorado on the road. UConn is coming off a disappointing loss against Syracuse, creating a perfect trap game scenario. Early game in Newark, a surprisingly live crowd catches the sleepy visitor in a dog fight.
Delaware +10
Virginia vs. William & Mary Over 51.5
This game was a late entry on the board with lines not being posted until Friday afternoon, so it did not my my original post. The line opened at 27.5 moved to 26.5 fairly quickly and has settled on that all day. Iāll be transparent I made no effort to dive into W&M. My thoughts on this game are similar to those when the Hoos took on Coastal in the opener. I expect the Hoos to come out and dominate the clock and the line of scrimmage on offense. Through 2 games the Virginia offense is humming. Iām not Des sympathizer but whatever he and CTE are cooking up itās working. UVa is averaging 210 ypg on the ground 273ypg in the air, thatās good for 33rd and 35th respectively. Itās also the balance and ground domination weāve heard CTE talk about wanting for three seasons. The goals should be simple for today, come out establish Taylor and the rushing attack early. Morris will want to show that the end of last week was a fluke and not the norm and I expect him to be sharp spreading the ball around and picking his opportunities. Through two games Virginia is averaging 26 first half points and I expect them to get out to another hot start and set the tempo. The 26 just feels too big for my comfort, but the OE of 51 feels right inline for a trip to the pay window.
Over 51.5
