Last Week 5-3
Overall 10-11 overall
Weāve made it to Week 3 of the college football season, and things are heating up. Oregon is not who I thought they were, and Iām not sure what to think about Michigan. What I do know is the Hoos have a legit test on Saturday night in Charlotte, and Iām excited to see how the boys stack up. Now letās make some picks.
As always Dragonās Picks are brought to you by Dragonās Lair Training, Tall Pines Curated Gifts, and Ashy Larry.
Houston +8.5 vs. Texas Tech
The number has moved all over in this one. Houston opened an 12.5 dog and it has worked itās way down to 7.5 in some places. Texas Tech is coming off a short week, and is a team that honestly hasnāt looked great this season. The defensive line was a strong point last season, but theyāve been unable to replace the talent the lost to the NFL. Enter the Cougars who put up at least 225 rushing yards in each of their first two games. This is a prime spot for running back Makhi Hughes can gash the Tech defense in a big game.
Houston +8.5
UTEP +35.5 vs. Michigan
Michigan has scored four touchdowns this season. One was on a short field after an INT, and the other was on the Hail Mary that never should have happened. They should overwhelm UTEP, but how can I expect the Wolverines to score 36 points and keep UTEP off the board?
UTEP +35.5
Clemson -3 vs. UNC
These two programs perfectly capture the current state of the ACC. Messy, unorganized, loads of uncertainty and somewhere between mediocre and good. Hereās a wild stat for you, Clemson is 3-6 in the last 9 home games against the FBS, had lost 6 in their previous 83 home games. That said Iām not ready to throw the dirt on Daboās grave just yet. I do believe the Clemson defense will be the best unit to take the field on Saturday. UNC has too many questions around them for me to feel comfortable. The offense has struggled, and I donāt know how they expect to generate points against a still solid Clemson defense. On the other side their defense has gotten a pass by facing overmatched teams.
Clemson -3
Rutgers +23.5 vs. USC
Canāt believe Iām jumping on the team that blew a game to UMass, but here we are. This is a game where I value the circumstances around the game more than the actual game. USC coming East to play in what I expect will be a less than rowdy environment. During Lincoln Rileyās time at USC his teams struggled when they came east. The Trojans had zero wins outside of the Pacific Time Zone in year one in the Big 10, and only two last year winning by 16 over Purdue and topping Nebraska by four. The icing on the cake here is USC returns home to take on Oregon next week in a game that could determine a spot in the CFB. Oh and Rutgers coach Greg Schiano may be fighting for his job at this point and not getting blown out will be a high priority for him.
Rutgers +23.5
Northwestern -3.5 vs Colorado
Iām not a hater, but I donāt believe in what Coach Prime is building. The Buffs snuck by Georgia Tech in Week 1, and upon further review, the Yellow Jackets may be a bad team this year. Despite a solid showing in the open, I still have questions about Coloradoās defensive line, and the last time we saw the Purple Cats in week one they averaged 7.3 yards per carry against an FCS opponent. This is also a must-win game for Northwestern if they want to make a postseason appearance. Their next two games are Penn St, and Indiana.
Northwester -3.5
Ole Miss +3.5 vs LSU
Maybe my Lane Kiffin hate is clouding my judgement here. I pride myself on being able to remove emotions from critical decisions, but sometimes, I canāt help myself. First off, Sam Leavitt is fine, heās already been upgraded from doubtful to questionable. This is just more Kiffin BS. Iām tempted to take the over 57 here, I donāt like either teams defense. Ole Miss gave up 5 yards per play to Charlotte last week. LSU looked good against Clemson, but the Rebels are much better than anything Clemson has put on the field the past three seasons.
Ole Miss+3.5
South Alabama -6.5 vs. Ohio
Ohio may be on their third string QB by the time this game comes around. QB 1 Nick Poulos was ruled out early in the week. Back up Matt Vezza was hurt in last weeks game, opening the door for QB 3 as your starter. Add in they lost a running back out of their rotation last week, and a starting receiver. This sounds like a program that needs to spend less time on the golf course and more time with the trainers, or theyāre going to start pulling hammys during the Halloween Party in a few weeks.
South Alabama -6.5
Minnesota -23-5 vs. Akron
The Gophers were drilled at home last week in a game they entered as a slight favorite in some books. I expect Fleck to have the boys ready to bounce back this weekend against the Zips. The best offense we saw last weekend from Akron came with a fan called the first series, and had them on the move before a fumble ended his NCAA 27 hopes and dreams. The Zips struggled to separate last week going up 21-10 against Robert Morris in the first half, and they needed a backdoor cover against Wake in Week 1.
Minnesota -23.5
Virginia -10.5 vs. WVU Over 51.5
Our Virginia Cavaliers are back in action this weekend in a neutral site game against West Virginia. The Hoos defense will be the key to victory on Saturday night. WVU QB Michael Hawkins Jr is a dual-threat QB and can give a defense fits with his ability to buy time and create on the run. This is his first season as a starter after spending time as John Mateerās backup at Oklahoma. Itās easy to make a comp between Hawkins and NC State QB CJ Bailey, I had Bailey as a better QB coming into the season, and the downgrade he received is totally due to the clinic the Virginia defense put on facing him in Week 1. Hawkins has a running mate in the backfield in RB Cam Cook whoās averaging just under 5 yards a carry. The Virginia defense needs to remain disciplined, Rich Rod will deploy a lot of PA and RPO action to get guys off their spot and hope his backfield can exploit space. Thus far this season the Virginia defense has played smart football, and have Kam calling the shots will go a long way to helping things out.
Offensively I love what Iāve seen from Virginia so far (has Des learned his job on the job?). In Week 1 the ground game was relentless and they physically punished NC State. QB Beau Pribula showed he can use his legs, and we saw five backs get meaningful touches. In Week 2 the Hoos flipped the script and aired it out. Through both games Beau has been very efficient with the ball completing 84% of his passes and racking up 5 TDās the one INT heās thrown was off a tipped ball in the backfield. My favorite part of the Virginia offense the past two seasons has been their ability to control tempo throughout a game. This is something Des and Tony have done very well. Theyāre gaining a sense of when to push the pace to keep teams on the heels and generate easy first down plays, and they are capable of suffocating an opponent by going on marathon drives that eat up a quarter. That versatility is key allowing them to establish leads and then maintain them, by keep their opponent off the field.
Head up, Virginia is the better team in this one. WVU looked shaky in Week 1 against Coastal, and the UT Martin game doesnāt count. That takes me to experience and pedigree. The Hoos are veteran team, who understand the systems they run, and what their staff expects of them. WVU is still finding itās identify under Rich Rod, and theyāre too early in the rebuilding process. I expect WVU to come out hot, but then fade as the game plays out. The Hoos will need to be sharp to take control early.
Hoos -10.5
