Last week 4-6
Overall 12-12
I did not realize that I was .500 this season until this morning and that pisses me off. Iād almost rather be bellow .500 than stuck in neutral. On the upside Iāve enjoyed watching the Hoos (thereās your jinx for ya), and on the whole this is shaping up to be one of the all time great college football seasons with no real big dog in the yard. Now letās make some picks and make some money.
Dragonās College Picks are brought to you by Dragonās Lair Training, Tall Pines Marketing & Communications, and Pappy Van Winkle (if you build it they will come right?).
Tulsa +11.5 vs. Oklahoma St.
Friday night games make me nervous mainly because I hate the idea of waking up 0-1 on Saturday. But sometimes a line is too good to pass on. Oklahoma St. is a program in disarray. The Cowboys underwent a totally overhaul during the offseason, making moves to their coaching staff, a rebuilt o-line and a new QB. All the moving parts have not gelled. The rushing attack is averaging 3.2 ypc and the passing attack has more TOās than TDs. I wish I jumped on this one earlier when it was +13.5 but Iāll take the action at 11.5 and have some fun on a Friday night.
Tulsa +11.5
Iowa vs. Rutgers Under 46.5
I donāt know if this screams Big 10 but it does scream Rutgers, an ugly game on a Friday night under the lights of whatever that dumpster fire of a city is called in Jersey. The Hawkeyes might not understand how the portal works. Itās a resource to be used to upgrade talent not downgrade. Iowa went to the portal for a QB and came away with South Dakota State quarterback Mark Gronowski. He has not adjusted well to his new surroundings, against Albany, Iowa State and Massachusetts. Heās completing 58% of passes with a measly 8.3 yards per completion. The Rutgers offense has been explosive, scoring 34, 45 and 60 points in their outings this season. However, they have not played a unit like the Hawkeyes defense. I expect plenty of punts and when the dust settles a sweet under.
Under 46.5
Auburn +7.5 vs. Oklahoma
Timing is everything in life. The line to this game opened at OU -4.5 and I would have been all over that. But as it went on the money poured in and the line is up to Auburn +7.5. The biggest driver behind the shift is the love OU quarterback John Mateer is receiving. Heās become the favorite for the Heisman and is playing like a man on a mission. Heās also the reason Iām hesitant to jump on the Sooners in this spot. Iām not sure what the Sooners have to offer on offense beyond him. Another fun wrinkle this game marks the return of Jackson Arnold to Norman OU after losing his starting job with the Sooners last season.
Auburn +7.5
Indiana -6 vs. Illinois
This is a āshow meā game for both programs. Both schools have expectations to sneak their way into the backdoor of the CFP. Iām not sure if either is deserving of that. Saturday Illinois heads on the road where they have not been great historically. The offensive line is such a concern for me. For a unit that returned everything they simply have not performed. PFF has the united ranked 88 in pass production with the only true opponent they played being Duke. The Hoosiers have not played a P4 or Group of 5 team this season so they have not been tested, but they have taken care of business in those game. The sharps have blown this line up to 6 after opening at 3.5. I think Indiana is the better team, but I would not jump on that line if it keeps growing.
Indiana -6.
Kennesaw State +5.5 vs. Arkansas State
This one if for @HoozGotNext. The Owlās record may not be what it seems. Wake barely snuck by them to open the season. IU beat them down in week 2, but if you look closer at that game the score was 21-9 going into the 4th and IU poured it on late. That lopsided score is why Iām calling the cause of this line against an Arkansas State team thatās coming in overvalued after playing Iowa State close last week. The line for this one opened at +6.5 and is as low as 4 in some places.
Kennesaw St. +5.5
Miami -8.5 vs. Florida
This game scares me, but I just couldnāt stay away. Why does it scare me? Because if Florida drops this game and they drop it in epic fashion it likely puts the nail in their season and Billy Napierās time in Gainesville. Thatās a lot at stake and it would not be the first that that a coach with his back against the wall comes out swinging. Doubling down on the concern this is a game that Miami HC Mario Cristabol has historically dropped. With all that said why pick Miami? Because sometimes to be successful you have to do the opposite of everything you believe. And the Miami front 7 very very good and will run havoc on the Gators offense.
Miami -8.5
Nebraska vs. Michigan Under 47.5
This is going to be a throwback grind it out game. Michigan has a stud QB in Bryce Underwood, but heās a first year and the Wolverines have done well to protect him against formidable opponents. The Wolverines lack talent on the outside to support Underwood leaving the offense a slightly upgraded version of what we saw last year. Tomorrowās game is the biggest game in Lincoln in 10 years, the crowd is going to be up and the Cornhuskers defense will be up for the challenge. On the other side, I see a Nebraska offense that is not as good as they showed so far this season. Dylan Raiola is solid but heās experiencing some second year woes behind a shaky offensive line.
Virginia -15 vs. Stanford Over 48.5
I wonāt lie my orange and blue glasses are so glued to my face right now, which makes me think that a collapse is coming but I refuse to let the worries of tomorrow ruin my today. I already went over this game briefly on the JB and Dragon Pod (we need merch @Merch)earlier this week. Stanford is not good. They are good at chewing up clock and they can put on those long drives that eat up time and end up in a FG attempt. Those are trends that concern me as a bettor who is chasing points. However, the Virginia offense is is operating at a historic level and Stanford does not have the athletes to keep pace if the Hoos settle into their tempo game. Defensively Iād love to see Virginia assert themselves and generate some turnovers. Stanfordās QB has thrown 3 picks already this season heās struggled to get anything going down the field opting to mostly check it down to his backs and TEās. This is a great spot to walk the DBās back up and get them involved inside the box.
Virginia -15. Over 48.5
