🏈 🎰 Dragon's College Football Picks Season 6 - Week 4

[BDragon]

Last Week 7-2
Overall 17-13

Better late than never. Spent all day filming a few commercials, then got on my grind to get these picks out. I do this for you Locker Room Access Nation. Last week was one of the best week I’ve put together picking games. I know I can’t keep it going, but man it feels good to be on the upside. Even the egg the Hoos laid in Charlotte couldn’t hold me down. Now let’s pick some games.

As always Dragons’ College Football Picks are brought to you by Dragon’s Lair Training, Tall Pines Curated Gifts, and naps.. Yea they’re back in style.

Cal +2.5 vs. Clemson
I picked Clemson last week against UNC, and despite winning the game I’m less confident in the TIgers now than I was a week ago this time. This is a tough spot it’s a short week with cross country travel for Clemson. Toss in the unpredictability of Call QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and you have the makings of a wild Friday night.
Cal +2.5

Florida -3.5 vs. Ole Miss
All the money is going Ole Miss’ way and that’s why I’m swerving and going with the home team Gators. Experience has told me when a lower ranked team is favored, there’s a reason for it. Who am I to fight Vegas? I wanted to take the over here, but it’s hovering around 60 and that’s a bit too much. The Rebels defense is a something to watch out for, 98th in yards per play on defense, and 89th in pressure rate. They give up too many points to be a true contender.
Florida -3.5

Michigan St +5.5 vs. Nebraska
This feels like a classic old school game that’s mucked up. The Spartans are taking on their coaches personality and look a bit like Northwestern of a few years ago. Adding to that, during Pat Fitzgerald’s tenure at Northwestern, he went 58-45-2 (56.3%) against the spread as an underdog. Nebraska is on the road for the first and it feels like they are getting too many points for my liking. Especially when you take in consideration Matt Rhule’s history in this position, he’s is 2-8 straight up in true road games and dating back to 2021, Nebraska is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite, including 0-4 under Rhule.
Michigan St +5.5

Iowa vs. Michigan Under 39.5
First team to 20 wins? We know what an Iowa offense can do, they have one receiver. I’m not kidding Tony Diaz 17 receptions for 207 yards is responsible for just shy of 1/3 of the receptions and receiving yards. Michigan kind of found an offense late last week, but I do not believe in Bryce Underwood. I hate that I’m ranging on this kid week after week, but here we are.
Under 39.5

Wisconsin +10.5 vs. Penn St.
This has everything to do with PSU first year coach Matt Campbell. Looking at the O/U set at 44, I get the sense Vegas is also looking at the Badgers as well. I’ll feel a lot better if Wisconsin and get out to a fast start, and they may be able to thanks to transfer QB Colton Joseph from ODU.
Wisconsin +10.5

LSU -8 vs. Texas A&M
I still hate Lane, but it’s time for the Tigers to get their mojo back at home on Saturday night. The Aggies have not looked good this season and a lot of that has to do with QB Marcel Reed who has looked unplayable at times. It’s definitely a rebuilding year for A&M. LSU needs to make a statement Saturday night, losing to Ole Miss didn’t ruin the season, but opening the SEC season 0-2, will ruin it.
LSU -8

Virginia -19.5 vs. Delaware 51.5 Over
Which version of the Hoos will we see Saturday evening? The one who opened the season with a shutdown defense, and a dominate offense, or the one who looked lost and overwhelmed last Saturday in Charlotte? Given what we saw last season when the Hoos come off a lost CTE has a way to get the boys locked back in. That’s going to be essential on Saturday. Given some injuries on the offensive line, this would be a great game to get the running game back on track by keeping it simple and pounding an outsized and overmatch Delaware defensive front. I also expect the Virginia defense to regroup. Last week Hawkins was the best athlete on the field and the Hoos could not scheme their way to contain him or the overall speed West Virginia posses. I also tip my hat to Rich Rod, who proved why he is is the innovator of the spread option offenses that are so common today. There’s no Hawkins on the field on Saturday. I fully expect Virginia to win, but as I said in another thread on here, this game is about how the Hoos look while winning. We need to see Virginia walk out with a 20+ point victory to know the ship has been set back on course, and all of the seasons goals are still in play.
Hoos -19.5

[BDragon]

Clemson is cooked

[fivesheff]

Congrats on the great week, Dragon. I need to pick up a little of that magic this week and get back to .500. Tonight’s game was not a good start. Oh well - plenty of games on the slate this week. Out of your picks I definitely like Michigan St., I like the Virginia over, and Florida. History has not been kind to Wisconsin against Penn St. but maybe they can keep it close.

I was 3-5 last week, 9-13 overall. Thanks to Navy’s porous defense (and their horrendous decision to pass the ball up 3 in the 4th quarter, with the ball in plus territory, and gashing UAB for 7-9 yards per rush on the drive … though I’m not bitter about it, not at all), I currently stand at 9-14.

Navy -6.5 at UAB - I’ll spare you the explanation as to why Navy will cover. They won’t.

Michigan St. +5.5 vs. Nebraska - Huskers are 3-13-2 ATS in last 18 games as Big Ten favorites. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in last 6 games of this series.

Wyoming +2.5 vs. Hawaii - Hawaii is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 conference games when favored by single digits. Wyoming is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 conference games as a home underdog. Home teams are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. I don’t really care for this Wyoming team, but when all the signs are flashing in one direction, I can’t ignore it. Rats - yesterday the line has moved up to 3.5 points. Too late to turn back now; I’ll take 2.5.

Sam Houston St. +34.5 at Texas Tech - Texas Tech has shown us that they are not the same team as last year that bludgeoned most of their opponents. They haven’t covered the spread once this year and even against Abilene Christian, only won by 23. Meanwhile, Sam Houston has covered all three of its games including staying within single digits of Troy and Tulsa. I liked this better earlier in the week at 36.5, but even at this level, it’s too many.

Georgia Southern +18 vs. Houston - Houston is coming off a heart-stopping near upset of Texas Tech and now hits the road to play Georgia Southern. This screams emotional let-down to me. Ga. Southern is 9-2-2 ATS at home in last 2 years and will be fired up to face a ranked opponent on their own field. Houston has been a solid road team the last couple of years (8-4-1 ATS as an away team, 6-3 in non-conference games, and 7-2-1 after a loss), but I am taking the points here.

Troy at Utah St., under 47 - Wow – this one has been hammered down from 49.5, but I’m sticking with it. Since 2024, Troy games have hit the under 9 out of 14 games as a road underdog. In that same time period, Utah St. games have hit the under 5 times out of 7 games as a home favorite. Neither team has played a game this year that has hit the over.

Arizona at Washington St., under 48 - The Arizona over/under record is 6/16 since 2023, when Noah Fifita took over the QB duties. Washington St. has hit the under 9 out of 13 games as an away team since 2024.

Arkansas St. -6.5 vs. Kennesaw St. - Arkansas St. was within one score of TCU late in the third quarter of their game last week, showing considerable grit. The Red Wolves are also 6-1 ATS at home since the beginning of last season.

UConn at. Miami (OH), over 52 - since the beginning of last year, Miami (OH) home games have hit the over in 4 out of 5. The over is 5-2 in UConn road games during the same period. The Huskies went on the road and put up 48 on Southern Miss last week. Between UConn and Miami (OH) they have hit the under in only one game, and that was by half a point when UConn lost to Maryland.

Missouri at Mississippi St., under 58.5 - Missouri will lean on the running game and defense to keep the game close and keep Kamario Taylor and friends on the sideline. Mississippi St. punished South Carolina when it showed 1-on-1 coverage with its wide receivers, but was content to run the ball against a light box when the safeties played deep. Missouri will try to induce the Bulldogs to do the same (i.e. run the ball), shortening the game and keeping the crowd from having any explosive plays to cheer about.

[BDragon]

Loving your picks this week

The Georgia Southern game was one I looked at real hard. I agree how does Houston respond after the heart break of last week? Mizzu and Mississippi State under is a savvy play as well. Tigers needs need to keep Super Kamario off the field if they want to win and that strategy screams under.

A few other games I eyed but didn’t pull the trigger on
USC +3.5 vs. Oregon - I don’t like the action either way in this one. If I had to pick a side I’d take USC over Q1. This is a must win for both teams, and I honestly don’t know what we have either club at this moment.

Ohio St -26.6. vs Illinois This line has dropped 2 points since I first looked at it. I don’t see a world where OSU isn’t up double digits going in to the half.

Wake +13.5 vs Louisville - I don’t want to wager on it but I am curious about what Wake can do against another stout team. They gave Miami hell a couple weeks ago, and Louisville is good but they can be beat.

Texas -5.5 vs Tennessee - Does Arch finally get his signature road win? The Vols offense struggles against athletic defenses. The Longhorns need a win here to set up the rest of their season with no true road test left after today.

Drake vs Davidson over 54.5 - a little birdy told me to expect points in this one. Since I looked yesterday the line has shifted 2 points up from 52. That’s pretty typical for these FCS games but I’m curious.

[fivesheff]

Drake vs. Davidson isn’t even on my radar! I think Wake on the road is a different animal than at home. Winston-Salem has always been a difficult place to play and seem to remember some good FSU teams go there and struggle a bit. I think Louisville runs and hides in that game, but that line has shifted significantly toward WF - now down to 11.5! All the Tennessee fans I know are expecting a loss here so I lean toward Texas as well. USC (like your Florida-Ole Miss game) is one where the wrong team is favored, right?? USC, ranked higher and at home, makes little sense as a 3.5 point dog to the Ducks who have looked poor for two games, but took out their frustrations on Portland State. I think over 62 is the way to play it.

Other games that intrigue me:

Boise St. at Western Michigan (+7.5)

Iowa (+5.5) at Michigan

JMU (-6) at ODU

Minnesota (+10.5) at Washington

San Diego St. at Toledo (-3)

UCLA (-1.5) at Maryland

[BDragon]

Wish i took that Wake game. Knew something was up

[BDragon]

The Ole Miss defense is bad

[fivesheff]

I can’t believe Iowa drove 91 yards in the last 1:49 to get the TD they needed to beat Michigan. They looked typically inept for the first minute of the drive, and then … magic happened?? I only turned back with 2 seconds left to see the final play.

[BDragon]

Most importantly the Under still hit!!!

[fivesheff]

>>Drake vs Davidson over 54.5 - a little birdy told me to expect points in this one. Since I looked yesterday the line has shifted 2 points up from 52. That’s pretty typical for these FCS games but I’m curious.<<

Final Score: Drake 51 Davidson 32

[BDragon]

I just checked that ga.ea bit ago. Going to have to give my birdy friend somw extra seed this week.

[BDragon]

Setting up for a good week. But need a garbage time TD in the Virginia game.

Also I told y’all so about PSU and Ole Miss

[crazysportsdude]

So glad Penn State lost. 7-5 last year, their best win is Temple, and they were ranked 13th.

[BDragon]

Matt Campbell gonna Matt Campbell.

[HOORVA]

Damn - WVU looking average right now after looking like champions last week.

[fivesheff]

4-6 this week. The struggle is real. Of course, in the “other games that intrigue me”, I went 5-1. Figures…

A very ugly 13-20 for the year.

[BDragon]

Another solid week 5-3
23-16 on the season.

[Jwhelan33]

I’ll start putting my full paycheck into your picks!

[BDragon]

Haha that’s a surefire way to lose it all.

Cant believe the roll ive been on