🏈 Dragon's College Football Picks Season 6 Week 5

[BDragon]

Last Week 7-2
Overall 19-12

Last week Dragon got back on track and boy did it feel good walking to the pay window on Monday morning. What’s my award besides a nice chunk of cash? One of the best lineups of games I’ve seen on any given college weekend. Four games with ranked teams. The Hoos in the biggest game for the program in 25 years. Let’s get at it.

This week Dragon’s College Football Picks are brought to you by Dragon’s Lair Training, Tall Pines Marketing and Communications and Firefly Vodka, damn that’s good sweet tea.

Illinois +7 vs. USC
I believe Illinois was overrated with their top 10 ranking early in the season. However, I do think they are being punished because of the whooping they took at the hands of the Hoosiers last weekend. Bettors are having a hard time shaking that 60-3 game and the money has poured in on USC. This will be a proving game for the Trojans who are a sneak 4-0 but have avoided being tested thus far. My concern for this one is the travel and the game time. Lincoln Riley has taken USC as a road favorite 15 times and only covered 3 times, with two of those coming against UCLA in the Rose Bowl. Illinois were dogs eight times last time and won five of those outright. Sometimes you to bet the trend.
Illinois +7

Ohio St. vs. Washington Over 51.5
I’m excited for this one. I have a nagging voice telling me to take the Huskie’s +8.5 as well but I’m holing off on pulling the trigger, although I might change my mind. As far as the Over goes the Huskies have hit over three times this year. They have an explosive offense that can produce enough big plays to keep this game interesting and keep it tight. Both of these teams like to get up and down the field and use their tempo.
Over 51.5

Ole Miss vs. LSU Over 56.5

Who and I to argue with the man?

Colorado +7 vs. BYU
It’s strange I forgot Primetime is still live in Boulder, but quietly Deion is righting the ship for his Buffs. It appears quarterback Kaidon Salter is turning the corner as he gets healthy and he’s leading the Colorado offense as a legit dual threat option. This is BYU’s first test on the season. They feasted on East Carolina and Portland St early, and looked respectable in a 27-3 win over Stanford a few weeks. I’m not sold on the Cougs offense just yet and I think Colorado at home they can make plays and keep it tight. Interestingly the line here opened at 3 and got hammered until it stretched to the current 7 (Thx FanDuel).
Colorado +7

UCLA +6.5 vs. Northwestern
Fire your ahead of the bye in week 4 and get rewarded by becoming a 6.5 point home dog to Northwestern? The same NW that’s scored 17 points against FBS schools this season(14 of those were against Oregon’s 10th string)? That’s a bridge too far for me. Northwestern has struggled to move the ball and their defense provides little resistance. This is UCLA’s last stand the guys left on the roster need to prove they can play if they want to be a Bruin or anything else next season. The extra prep time should be put to use.
UCLA +6.5

Jacksonville St +4.5 vs Southern Miss
Southern Miss can’t stop the run. Of the 13 total touchdowns Southern Miss has allowed this season, 10 came via the run. Teams running through the Golden Eagles to score, and that makes me question a teams intestinal fortitude. Meanwhile My Jacksonville State Gamecocks are built to run. They’re top 25 in both rushing grade and run block with 39 runs of 10 or more yards (16 of them 15-plus yards). The Gamecocks do their damage on the ground with long sustained drives. A perfect counter to a team that does not like to stop the run in the redzone.
Jax St. +4.5

Houston -13.5 vs. Oregon State
This might be my most random pick of the week, but stick with me and you’ll understand how I got here. Oregon St. is not good. The Beavers are 128th in points per drive and 126th in rushing success efficiency. Their offense is 117th in pressure allowed. On the defensive side the Beavers aren’t much better ranking 127th in points per drive. The Houston Cougars enter Saturday night’s game with a 3-0 record and a defensive unit that ranks seventh in points per drive on defense and does an excellent job of limiting big plays.
Houston -13.5 vs. Oregon St.

Virginia +7 vs. Florida St. Under 60.5
Lot of money pouring in from the sharps for the Hoos. That’s the first time I’ve written that sentence and it feels strange. Tommy C. has a niggle on the ankle. I don’t think it’s enough to make a difference but if the Hoos can get pressure on him and make him move it might throw him off. UVA points per drive 19th in the nation. 26th in success rate. They keep the chains moving and create 3rd and shorts. Des and Rud are going to earn their paychecks tonight. If the Hoos pull off the upset it’s going to be because both of those gentlemen called the game of their life. The difference between this year and previous ones is, the Hoos needed the staff to call a helluva game and get some breaks, but this time they have the horses who can run, just need to put them in the right race.

[757to206]

I’ll follow you on the UW/OSU game - mostly because I’ll be there and rooting for all the points.

Go Hoos tonight!

[BDragon]

You’re going to be at Huskies/Buckeyes? That’s going to be a wild environment especially of UW can get up early

[5sheff]

I like the idea of buying low on Illinois, but too many injuries in the secondary for me to feel comfortable. I like the Ohio State/Washington over and thought hard about taking it. Same with Houston against Oregon St.. I’m on the other side of the Southern Miss/Jacksonville State game.

Eight games this week:

Toledo -21 vs. Akron - Toledo won’t look past this game. Lost to the Zips last year, coming off a tough loss. Playing at home against one of the worst defenses in the country.

UCF +6 vs. Kansas St. and under 49.5 - without putting too much weight on UCF beating UNC, why is K State favored against anyone right now? I’ll take 6 points in a tight, low-scoring game.

Southern Miss -4 vs. Jacksonville St. - Southern Miss is having a nice turnaround year after 1-11 last season. The reason? Former Marshall head coach, Charles Huff, brought half of Marshall’s team with him, which won the Sun Belt last year. Southern Miss may have given up some touchdowns on the ground this year, but they aren’t being gashed by the run. They only give up 127 yards per game rushing. They lost last week, but put up over 500 yards of offense. I’ll take them minus the small number at home.

La. Tech -3.5 vs. UTEP - the team that beat Southern Miss last week was La. Tech. I’ll take them to keep it rolling against UTEP.

Kansas -4.5 vs. Cincinnati

Oregon +3.5 vs. Penn St.- You’re telling me I get more than a field goal against James Franklin? That’s too tempting.

Utah vs. West Virginia, under 47.5 - I liked it better at 49.5 where it opened, but I’m ok with it here. West Virginia is a tough place to play. The under has hit on 5 out of the last 7 games where West Virginia was a home underdog. All four of West Virginia’s games this year were under the total.

[757to206]

Yeah – my in-laws are big UW fans/alumni. They are out of town this weekend so I snagged their tickets.

Will be an awesome environment

[BDragon]

The Illinois game makes me nervous. It’s a make or break game for them.

I want to rake Oregon so badly. This screams James Franklin dropping the ball, but I was too scared. Young Oregon team in the Whiteout. Is this must win for Franklin?

I had the UCF on my board and took it off during the final edit. I agree about the KState assessment.

Great picks as always.

[SGHoo]

Have to say.. the Brady Wilson injury had me nervous about hoos +7

[4547Lambeth]

@BDragon

Ole Miss vs. LSU Over 56.5

Who and I to argue with the man?

So this is Whit Weeks, West Weeks’ younger brother. West showed a lot of promise as a freshman here, but I’ll never forget his boneheaded roughing the punter penalty against VT that turned the momentum of the game completely around.

[BDragon]

Yup thats Whit Weeks starting LB for LSU who hard launched his relationship with Lane’s daughter this week

[BDragon]

Hoos won last night bur Dragon took a beating at the pay window starting the weekend 1-3is not good

[Hoohoohoo]

Hearing from Tech fans they’re worried about being able to field a team next week.

According to my buddy the entire stadium booed Pry when he was announced at the start of the ODU intros. So assume donors were already at a boiling point prior to ODU loss. But Man were they short sighted still with when they pulled Pry.

now this as well

https://twitter.com/darrenheitner/status/1971599344307769459?s=46

[dave92]

The flip side of this is, had they waited until 5 games before firing Pry, *deliberately* to ensure that everyone burned their redshirts and so were unable to “opt out”… that would be criticized as well.

[dbfromnva]

If they had waited they might not have had their big victory over Wofford.

[jazznutUVA]

@BDragon Have you really been doing this for 6-years? Damn!

[BDragon]

Yup best i can rell 2020 season was my first

[BDragon]

Need Colorado to come up big so i can go 4-5 on the week. Got hammered on missing o/es

[BDragon]

4-5 on the weekend. Not great but overall minimum damage to the wallet.

This also allowed me to maintain my trend of 1 good week folllwed by 1 mediocre week.

[fivesheff]

Apart from the Toledo layup, I was struggling early. Evening action brought me back to level. 4-4 on the week. 18-12 for the year.

[BDragon]

Nice we’re basically in locl step

24-19 on the year here.