Last Week 5-3
23-16 on the Season
Itās been a wild ride so far this season but the wins keep coming. I wish I could tell you the secret to my success, but all I can say is sometimes you have to believe in yourself. The Hoos got back on the right the right side of the win column in the most way Virginia way possible, mainly we still donāt know what we have. Now letās pick some games.
As always Dragonās College football picks are brought to you by Dragonās Lair Training, Tall Pines Curated Gifts, and spray starch, keep them shirts extra crispy.
Pitt vs. VPI -2.5
This is for my guy @Jwhelan33. Follow the money, Opened at 2 and was 3.5 by EOD Thursday. DraftKings has it at 2.5 which Iād consider for a play. But Iām staying out the way.
Arizona -6.5 vs. Cincinnati
The Bearcats have a one dimensional offense that is focused on the ground game. In their āupsetā win over Kansas State last weekend their were thoroughly outclassed on offense, The Bearcats were outgained, had nine fewer first downs, were worse on third down and were beaten soundly in time of possession.Theyāll need to put up points to keep pace with an Arizona team averaging 32ppg. Wildcats QB Noah Fifita is especially talented playing at home where heās completed 84% of his passes along with six touchdowns and no picks this season. Iām surprised the public money has kept this game down, as Iād place the spread at 8 or 9.
Arizona -6.5
Ohio State vs Iowa Under 45.5
Iowa is going to muck this one up. The Buckeyes are favored by 14.5 and I do like that spread, but I can see this being 31-10 or something around that. The Buckeyes are the better team, but I can see Ryan Day going conservative and keeping it close to the chest.
Under 45.5
Miami -16.5 vs. Clemson
This is the third consecutive week Iāve picked a Clemson game and Iām 1-1, time to close out the series. This feels like a game where Mario goes for the death blow against Dabo and the Tigers. Clemson is not the Tigers of eight years ago. A comeback in the rain against UNC, and a bit of luck and extra tough grit got the Tigers through a Cal team, thatās a one-man show last week. The Canes are legit good and not just ACC good, and I expect them to put down a marker Saturday night.
Miami -16.5
Michigan vs. Minnesota +5.5
Michigan lost a heartbreaker last week to Iowa. The Hawkeyes needed and got everything to go right to pull that one off. Itās crazy that the Wolverines are 3-1, because of how the season began for them I see them as a worst team than the record shows. The Gophers went on the road and beat Washington last weekend in an impressive performance moving to 3-1 SU and ATS. I really want to take the under here but I got in on the action too late. The O/U is not at 43.5 down from earlier in the week. I wish I could get this at 6.5 but the money is not flowing here and I donāt expect enough to come in and move the line in the next 24 hours. Even at 5.5 I think we see the Gophers hang tough. But I wonāt be smearing blood on my face when this one hits.
Minnesota +5.5
Florida vs. Missouri +4.5
Florida is the fasting rising stock in the country. All the money and momentum seems to be flowing the Gators way and rightfully so they are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS. In one month theyāve gone from unranked to Top 10. It all feels like too much too soon. My biggest drawback in this one is itās Missouri, the least deserving Top 25 team in the nation. Eli Drinkwitz is 0-10 against Top 10 programs. Last week, the Gators were the darling team playing the hottest team in the country, and they rose to the occasion. Now the shoe is on the other foot. Life comes at you fast in college football.
Missouri +4.5
USC -8.5 vs. Washington
I donāt like the Huskies offense. They have no pop. Take out their 42 point output against Eastern Washington and the Huskies average 22ppg. They have no ground game to speak of and quarterback Demond Williams is the whole show. USC got their doors blown off by a backup quarterback last weekend at home, and now head coach Lincoln Riley is on the hot seat. The Trojans still have one of the best offenses in the country averaging 39.8 points and 489.4 yards a game, among the top 10 nationally in both categories. This is a chance for Riley to lay down a marker and potentially keep his job.
USC -8.5
Virginia -2.5 vs. Florida St.
The last time Virginia went on the road they got their teeth kicked in by WVU. That was the first and only test the Hoos faced this season and they failed. Saturday the Hoos travel to Florida to take on a Florida State team that may be at the breaking point. The highlight of the 'Noleās season is losing 27-24 to SMU three weeks ago. Bama destroyed them in a revenge game from last yearās upset, and the Noles looked fine against two lesser opponents. Head Coach Mike Norvell has done nothing to cool his hot seat, and being a dog at home to Virginia is not helping. This one will come down to Virginiaās defense and an they get after QB Ashton Daniels. Heās struggled so far this season completed less than 60% of his passes while throwing six interceptions against seven touchdowns. Heās also been sacked seven times already this season. Rud will need to trust whatās become an acclaimed secondary and send pressure to get Daniels off his mark early. Saturday should also be an opportunity for the Virginia offense to shine. FSUās defense has been poor all season struggling they give up over 25ppg, over 420ypg, and 135 rushing yards per game. A win on Saturday keeps Virginia on track for the season.
Virginia -2.5
so good (wide left)