🏈 🎰 Dragon's College Football Picks Season 6 - Week 6 🐈

[BDragon]

Last Week 5-2
28-18 on the season

We’ve been humming so far this season. I can’t help but think the good like all good things is nearing an end. But I don’t worry about tomorrow, I only live for today. Let’s pick some games.

Dragon’s College Football Picks are brought to you by Dragon’s Lair Training, Tall Pines Curated Gifts, and #WearetheHurricane.

Iowa +2.5 vs. Washington
How do you make Iowa have an even more conservative offense? Make them play their backup quarterback Jeremy Hecklinkski will be under center on Friday night in place of Hank Brown who is injured. The Hawkeyes are coming off a short week, but I still like them making the trip to Seattle and coming out with a possible win. The last 20 times Iowa has been in a game with a spread that’s 2-3 points in either direction, the Hawkeyes have won that game 16 times. Washington is struggling they have some issues at quarterback, and overall roster construction.
Iowa +2.5

Indiana -7.5 vs. Nebraska
Are the Cornhuskers finally back? Nahh… Nebraska has not beat a top 25 team since 2016. Two things concern me about Nebraska in this matchup. First: Nebraska’s offense is one dimensional. They are 122nd in the country with 5.5 air yards per target. You’re going to be my dynamic against a solid Indiana defense. Second: Nebraska is 123rd in penalties per game and its offensive line is averaging over three a game. You don’t win games when you routinely give your opponent extra chances. Indiana is the opposite side of that coin. They don’t beat themselves. The Hoosiers don’t turn the ball over, and they don’t commit penalties. Also do you really trust AC to be the guy to lead you to success in a nationally televised Top 25 game?
Indiana -7.5

Florida -11.5 vs. South Carolina
Beamer is already packing his bags and the moving truck is backing up. South Carolina has lost 11 of their last 12 against P4 teams. The Gators had the expected letdown last week against Mizzou and I expect them to get back on track. Texas and Georgia are looming, so Florida will need to take advantage of this opportunity to beat up on a wounded team. The home crowd lifts Florida to victory and a cover.
Florida -11.5

Houston +2.5 vs. Kansas St
This one doesn’t feel right to me. Houston hasn’t looked like the CFP contender I thought they were at the start of the season, likely because they are 2-3 ATS, but they’ve taken care of business week after week this season. Two weeks ago they fell a few inches short of knock off conference favorite Texas Tech. Kansas State’s only loss on the year came at the hands of a UC team that was blown out last week against Arizona. It just feels like the Cougars ae being undervalued here. Give me Houston to throw their name back in the ring to win the Monster Big 12 Energy Conference.
Houston +2.5

Georgia vs. Alabama Over 51.5
Meteorologist Dragon with a forecast update for Alabama has the hurricane moving through the area before kick, and this game should be played under wet but manageable conditions. The Georgia defense is very good, but they are not at their National Championship level best. That said the Bulldogs will be the best defense Bama has faced all year, it won’t be close. I believe the Crimson Tide have some holes in their line, at times we’ve seen them struggle to maintain the run game. The Alabama defense has given up some big numbers this season. I see this a 28-24 type game competitive but I like the over. Grab it now before the line begins to rise again.
Over 51.5

Texas -7.5 vs. Oklahoma
Two historic programs heading in separate directions. I’m not sure what the sooners are doing, but they are stuck with head coach Brent Venables for a while after he signed an extension during the offseason. The Oklahoma offense is horrible. 130th in passing, 131st in rushing, and 111th in points per games. The Sooners have failed to score more than 14 points in a game since their season opener against UTEP. Oklahoma has not scored an offensive TD against Texas in 1,094 days and there’s a great chance that streak continues for another year. I want to take the under in this game but, with the total at 39.5, there’s not enough room for error to make me feel comfortable. The Longhorns have a stacked defense, and a competent offense. I’m still waiting to see Arch Manning play 4 consecutive quarters.
Texas -7.5

Drake vs. Valparalso Over 53.5
Catch this while you can, cause the line will move fast. My little birdie came back with this tip, and last time we went to the FCS we nailed it. So have fun.
Over 53.5

Virginia vs. Syracuse Over 50.5
The Hoos are a 10 point favorite at home against a Syracuse football team that is dominated the North East with wins over New Hampshire and UConn. It’s homecoming, so hopefully the vibes are good in Scott Stadium. Despite last week’s debacle, I’d hate to see the fans lose faith in the program this quickly. This is a great opportunity for the Virginia secondary to get on track. In the games Virginia has won this season they force turnovers. They’ll need to get a few Saturday night to keep the pressure on the Orange. Offensively I’d love to see them get back to pounding the ball which will be tough against the stacked boxes they are facing. They will either need to bring in extra bodies, or get Beau back involved in the running game, to force defenses to account for him. I’d love to say Virginia could open up their passing game to relieve the pressure, but I’m not sure Beau has the accuracy or the speed to be truly effective enough to stretch a defense. The 34 year old offensive line for the Hoos has to be better. That group was seen as the crown of the offense entering the season, and they’ve been a massive disappointment. All that said, I expect this to be a CTE special where Virginia wins comfortably but never dominates.
Over 50.5

[5sheff]

Dragon is on a roll this year. 28-18 is fantastic!

I am not a fan of Washington this year and so like the Iowa pick, but fear their lack of offense. I agree that Beamer is done. Blowing that 17-0 lead against Kentucky might have totally depleted whatever fight was left in the Gamecocks. Another FCS special? Love it!

I am going directly against two of Dragon’s picks this week, which for those of you paying attention, should be a double flashing green light alert to follow Dragon’s instincts. After a 5-4 effort last week I am 18-24 for the year and chasing .500.

Air Force -7 at N. Illinois: This one is a straight pick against the Huskies who are 1-6 ATS at home since the beginning of last season. This line is down after opening at 13.5 because Air Force lost its starting QB against Navy, but I’m not convinced anything has truly changed. Air Force will start sophomore Evan Medders, one of their fastest players, and let their running game dominate. Northern Illinois is 119^th in the nation, allowing 5.2 yards per rush, and 137^th in the nation, allowing opponents to convert 57% of their third downs. The Huskies convert only 28% of their own third downs and average a measly 10 points per game.

Fresno St.+6.5 vs. Boise St.: Boise has been solid this year with a close loss at Oregon and wins against Memphis and Western Michigan. But Fresno St. has had their number the last several years, winning three straight matchups. Fresno is a really solid, well-balanced team ranking in the top 60 in offense and defense, both passing and rushing. They won’t get run off their home field, and I love taking the points in late night, west coast games.

Kansas St. -3 vs. Houston: Houston is 4-1 on the season, but has failed to cover the spread since their close loss to Texas Tech. Manhattan, KS is a tough place to play, and K-State has had two weeks to lick their wounds after a loss to Cincinnati. I expect that they used the week off to shore up the rush defense. If they can put the Cougars into third and long, they can unleash their pass rush, which is #1 in sack rate in the country. These teams have only played twice and when they played in Manhattan in 2023 is was 41-0 for the Wildcats. I don’t expect that here, but I expect a lot of emotion from the home team with the chance to knock off a nationally rated conference foe.

Sacramento St. at Bowling Green, under 44: I can guarantee you I will not be watching this game. Sacramento St. is averaging 9 points per game and Bowling Green only slightly better at 11. I’ll check the score in the evening with the expectation that offensive ineptitude won out over defensive indifference.

Texas A&M +3.5 at Missouri: Missouri is riding high after its beat-down of Florida, but I’m looking for them to come back down to earth in this one. The SEC schedule is a grind as one solid team after another pops up on the schedule. Texas A&M is struggling compared to expectations, but they had their get-right game against Arkansas and are still a dangerous football team. A&M has won the last three meetings between these teams by an average of 24 points – with two of those game played in Columbia.

Duke -6.5 at Georgia Tech: Duke’s defense has been fantastic this year, only allowing 12 points per game. Georgia Tech’s offense isn’t exactly lighting it up at 21 points per game. They are nearly dead-last in the country in turnover margin as they cough it up nearly twice per game and haven’t created a single turnover on defense this year against FBS competition. With their defense’s inability to generate short fields or cheap points, scoring will be hard to come by. Duke has plenty to cover this spread.

Nebraska +7.5 vs. Indiana: Indiana may win this game, but the spread is too much. Neither team has played much of anybody, with this exception of Indiana’s home game against Northwestern, which was a tight, one-score game. Now the Hoosiers take to the road to face a team with better offensive and defensive statistics than Northwestern. This is not last year’s Indiana team. I’m taking the points.

UAB at Memphis, over 53: Memphis is its typically stellar self on offense this season, rushing the ball 62% of the time, but still having a top 20 team in passing yards per game. On defense, however, they have given up 24 points to Arkansas St. and 38 to Boise. I was tempted by this little nugget on VSIN – UAB is 2-15-1 ATS (11.8%) following up an outright win and 8-18-1 (30.8%) in road/neutral games over the last four seasons. But most of those stats were accumulated during the Trent Dilfer years. Since the beginning of 2025, UAB is 4-3-1 ATS on the road and 2-2-1 ATS after a win. I’ll stick with the over.

Wyoming at San Jose St., under 42.5: Wyoming is one of the few teams that has been good to me this year, so I’m sticking with their stick-in-the-mud offense. San Jose St. has hit the under in 4 out of 5 games and haven’t seen over 50 since week 1. Meanwhile, Wyoming is averaging 14 points per game and hasn’t seen a combined team total over 37 since week 1.

UCLA +11.5 at Oregon: Underachieving team playing with its back-up QB is laying double-digits at home against a top 25 team?? I’m not convinced. UCLA will have prepared for Raiola and I don’t expect him to perform as well as he did in relief last week. Since the beginning of 2024, UCLA is 5-2 ATS against ranked opponents and 7-3 ATS as an away underdog. The Bruins have a top 5 offense this year and are facing an Oregon defense surrendering over 30 points per game.

[BDragon]

A little head-to-head competition never hurt anyone.

I totally get where you’re coming from about KSU vs. Houston that’s a pick I don’t have the strongest faith in. Maybe since it’s Fall Break the KSU faithful won’t be in full force.

I wanted to play with the A&M Mizzou game. I think you’re on the right side. Two things kept me away from it, one I’ve chased the dog in these big SEC matchups 3 consecutive weeks and feared my luck was running out. Two and more importantly I don’t trust Reed as the QB for A&M.

I think that UCLA pick is a smart one too. I don’t believe that Oregon is all the way fixed just yet. USC is not that good and that’s the Ducks biggest performance to date.

[BDragon]

Iowa defense looking like the 85 Bears (RIP Ditka). Hawkeyes up 20-0 with 8 to go in the second.

[fivesheff]

Hopefully Wyoming or San Jose St. can kick a field goal here in the last 5 minutes. This game has been soundly under the total. Would be a tough loss for OT scoring to push me to 0-1 for the week.

[fivesheff]

Thank you, San Jose St. for going for it on 4th and 1 and failing! Wyoming wins with a field goal. 16-13.

[BDragon]

[Hoohoohoo]

Probably will jinx him, but AC has looked really good so far through one quarter. (And he has been very good all season - albeit against a weak schedule).

This Nebraska offense is fun to watch.

[fivesheff]

Colandrea skipping and hopping to the end zone.

[fivesheff]

Wish I had taken the under in the App St./ODU game. Start of the 4th Q and it’s 3-2. lol

[Hooandtrue]

Manny Diaz

[Hooandtrue]

Both Duke GT and Cal Hokies coming down to wire

[Hooandtrue]

Duke freshman kicker misses the tying field goal. Brutal.

At least cal scores to take the lead with like 20 seconds left. Get fucked Hokies

[HooDat]

Cal trying to blow this. Shitty squib kick that let VT start at the 40, then the PI

[HooDat]

60 yards in 2 plays in 15 seconds. FML

Please do not win

Edit: ok good. Down goes Tech. Barely. Sheesh

[Jerome]

Big game James!

[BDragon]

VPI certainly getting what rhet paid for

[fivesheff]

4-6 this week.

[Hoohoohoo]

Bob Chesney turning around UCLA in an offseason.

Also this is funny.

https://x.com/dmac_la/status/2109049292208165064?s=46

[BDragon]

3-5 a couple of close misses and a few I was flat out wrong on.