🏈 🎰 Dragon's College Football Picks Season 6 - Week 7

[BDragon]

Last week 3-5
Season 31-23

Last week was not my best showing. I put too much faith in a few teams giving up on the season and they proved me wrong. Fortunately the record still looks good for the season. We have a couple of massive games on the schedule this weekend, six ranked matchups, four games with teams ranked inside the top 14, and our Hoos are on the road to Texas to take on SMU. Let’s pick some games.

Dragon’s College Football Picks are brought to you by Dragon’s Lair Training, Tall Pines Curated Gifts, and White Monster Energy Drink.

Memphis -7 vs. Tulane
Charles Huff is putting his mark on the Memphis football program and we’re seeing the results on the field with the Tigers sitting at 5-1 and a serious G5 contender. Led by my guy Marcus Stokes aka Memphis Joe at quarterback, over 1,500 yards 16 TDs and completing over 70% of his passes. Memphis Joe is the real deal. I expect the Tigers to overwhelm an overmatched Tulane defense and lead wire-to-wire.
Memphis -7

Indiana vs. Ohio State Under 50.5
Dating back to last year’s season opener the Under is 7-0 when Ohio State plays a ranked opponent. Edging me along is a series of lackluster performances by the Hoosiers offense this season. They struggled to move the ball last weekend against Nebraska. Indiana is great at limiting teams explosive plays and to beat them you’re going to need to finish drives. I expect a lot of 10-12 play drives from both units which limits the potential for points.
Under 50.5

Cal +10 vs. Wake Forest
Hottest team in the ACC are the Demon Deacons? This spread has jumped with concerns and news about Cal’s QB JKS availability in question. Even with him out I still like the Bears in this spot. ACC in the Sheets, a Cal program that is fighting and hasn’t given up yet. These are the ACC games where things get strange. I like Wake a lot as a team and their direction but this feels like a bad spot for them especially as the line continues to jump.
Cal +10

Kentucky +6.5 vs. Oklahoma
The Sooners are one of three P4 teams that average less than one point per drive. That’s some bad offense. As a Virginia fan I know bad offense, and the Oklahoma unit makes the Hoos look like the 99 Rams. The Sooner currently average 2.9 yards per carry, and quarterback John Mateer has yet to pass for more than 250 yards in a game. The Sooners pulled the upset last week thanks to Arch Manning seeing ghost, now they get a red hot Kentucky group. Will Stein has proven to be an energetic play caller, who have obvious trust in his team and the players are responding.
Kentucky +6.5

Missouri +5.5 vs. Ole Miss Over 58.5
Something just feels a bit off on this one. I think there’s a reason this line opened at 6.5 and has been bet down to 5.5. The sharps are talking to me and I’m listening. Austin Simmons has been lights out for the Tigers under center this season, but can he keep his emotions in-check as he faces off against his former team, and the man who took his starting job after he went down with a sprained ankle? The biggest stat that jumps out for me looking at this one is the Rebels are ranks 109th in points allowed per drive and 111th in success rate allowed. The last time we saw Ole Miss against a ranked team they got curb stomped by the Gators. I’m hoping for some fireworks, and the following the sharps.
Mizzou +5.5 and Over 58.5

Mississippi Valley State vs. Bethune Cookman Under 58.5
My little birdie got into the Southern Comfort last week and was way off on our over. But he’s back this week feeling good and like the under for this showdown.
Under 58.5

Wisconsin +3 vs. UCLA
The Bruins are fake tough. Their biggest win of the year against Oregon has more to do with a bad Oregon team, than UCLA being a special unit. I know there’s a lot of love on this forum for UCLA coach Bob Chesney, but I’m pumping the brakes on this team for now. Oregon turned the ball over 7 times last weekend against the Bruins, trotted out their third string QB and still had a shot to win that game in the end. The spotlight is so bright on this team, despite the fact they will take on the Badgers with their backup QB. I’m also concerned about the number of penalties the Bruins rack up. Eventually that will catch up to them.
Wisconsin +3

Kansas State -4.5 vs Kansas
The Sunflower Showdown, you got to love. The line is starting to move some with action coming in on the Jayhawks, but I like KSU in this spot. KSU head coach Collin Klein understands this rivalry and will have the Wildcats ready. The Kansas offense has been suspect at best this season, and I don’t see them putting points up against a KSU group that will want to bounce back after getting worked last weekend against Houston.
Kansas State -4.5

SMU -9.5 vs. Virginia Over 51.5
Yea, I’m backing SMU in this one. There are so many red flags that concern me when I break down this game. The Virginia offense has struggled this season. We all know that. The biggest concern for me is an offensive line that is under producing. Beau hasn’t been great as the quarterback, but the way the line folds under pressure, there’s not much many could do to withstand the pass rush. The defense that showed up against NC State in week 1 has disappeared and as I’ve noted before they have a history of struggling against mobile quarterbacks enter SMU’s Kevin Jennings. I just don’t like this matchup. CTE has a surprisingly good record against ranked opponents, but this one feels like a bad spot. The oddsmaker in me says take SMU and the points, and I’m taking the over in hopes of soothing the pain of watching my guys flame out.
SMU -9.5 Over 51.5

[fivesheff]

Great picks this week. I am with you on Memphis. I like the under angle in the Ohio St./Indiana game. I also favor Kentucky, SMU, and Wisconsin. A lot of overlap in thinking this week. Hopefully a good omen for the week. After a 4-6 week, I am 22-30 for the season … but hope springs eternal. Here is what I have for week 7:

Oregon St. -18 vs. Washington St. – Oregon St. has averaged over 51 points of offense in its last four games. Home teams are 6-0 ATS in last 6 of this series.

Virginia Tech -9.5 vs. Georgia Tech - I think this is a good spot for the Hokies. Coming off of two straight losses, Va Tech will b ehungry to assert its will, while injury-riddled Georgia Tech is coming off of a home upset of Duke. The Jackets’ inability to get after the quarterback will allow the Hokie passing game to put up 30+ points at home. Bad guys by 14 or more.

La Tech at UL Monroe, over 56 – both teams have reasonable offenses and trash defenses. Monroe is giving up over 40 pts per game even if you throw out the opening game against Miss St. Tech has averaged 31 points per game La Tech has hit the over every game including crossing the 60 point threshold in the last two games when the O/U was in the 40s.

Troy at Louisiana, under 49 - both teams hit the over in their last games which is not their habit. They have each been under the number four times this season. I’m looking for them to revert back to form this week. VSIN says that Louisiana is 31-14 favoring the under in home games since 2019.

Bowling Green -6 vs. Ball St. – Bowling Green is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite these past couple of seasons, but they may have turned a corner earlier this year with an upset of Miami (OH) and a thrashing of Sacramento St. The Falcons are only averaging 16 points per game, but are averaging 31 over the last two. Now they are at home and get to play the Ball St. defense which ranks 128^th or worse in virtually every defensive category. Granted, two of their games were against Northwestern and Ohio St., but the 13 point loss to Kent St. wasn’t a good look. I’ll take Bowling Green to keep it rolling.

BYU +10.5 vs Notre Dame – During the last 1.5 seasons, BYU is 8-1 ATS at home and 6-0 in non-conference games. Since 2021 they are 7-1 ATS as a home underdog

Arkansas +6 at Vanderbilt – Jared Curtis and Blaze Berlowitz started the season as QBs 1 and 1A for Vanderbilt. Berlowitz is now out with a broken collarbone and Curtis is taking his lumps as a freshman with 7 turnovers so far. The Razorbacks were competitive with UT last week, and I think they can get a couple of turnovers and win … but I will certainly take the points.

Northwestern -7 at Michigan St. – Since 2020 Northwestern has had plenty of success in East Lansing, going 6-3 and winning three of the last four. And after clubbing Penn St. and hanging tough with Indiana, they seem to have one of their better teams. Michigan State’s offensive struggles (123^rd in the nation in yards per play) will allow Northwestern to extend the lead and win easily.

Auburn +19.5 vs. Georgia - We’ve got Georgia, a little woozy still from its slugfest against Bama, and Auburn coming off of a bye. Let’s take Auburn’s defense to keep this one respectable and within the spread. Wow, this was 21 yesterday when I picked it. Ouch.

Memphis -7 vs. Tulane - Memphis is definitely the higher powered offense in this game, dangerous both on ground and in air. If (and when) they get a lead, Tulane isn’t equipped to pass their way back into the game. The Green Wave are 119^th in the country in completion percentage and 114^th in sack rate allowed. Meanwhile Memphis is #1 in red zone scoring defense, and top 12 in both interceptions and sacks created.

[BDragon]

Love the way you’re thinking this week.

I think VPI has a big week in a get right game for Franklin back in Blacksburg. Oregon St has been rolling love the way their offense is clicking.

BYU game I couldn’t get a feel for. I worry they can put up points having to run all their offense through Bear. But I also don’t know that Freemen and co. are ready for what that rowdy crowd in Provo will be.

I could see UGa looking ahead to a bye week and the cocktail party in 2 weeks. I wouldn’t be surprised if they come out a bit hungover and play a game similar to the one they had a few weeks ago against Vandy.

Writing this at the half of the Memphis game, and Memphis Joe just tossed a pick 6 on the final play of the half to put the Tigers down 22-10… We need a big second half to get right.

[fivesheff]

what was it for Memphis tonight? Three interceptions, three lost fumbles, plus two more turnovers on downs?!?!? That’s laughably bad. They might have won except for those EIGHT turnovers.

[BDragon]

Yea, it was insane how bad the offense was. They seemed hellbent on shooting themselves in the foot anytime they got something going.

Meanwhile Washington has 5 TOs and is up 12 on Purdue in the fourth.

[BDragon]

Week 7 of the football sesson and I’ve yet to watch 1 min of College Gameday

I’ll never forgive McAfee for this