Dragon's College Football Picks Week 10 (Season 4)

Last week 3-5
Overall 47-41-2

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Woof last week was awful. Really no other way to put it. I can’t be that bad if I’m expecting to build a new house with these winnings. Toss in the fact that a .500 record is suddenly insight and the pressure is on to right this ship.

Virginia Tech +10 vs. Louisville
I hate backing the Hokies in anything, but desperate times call for desperate measure and I need a win. I also have to give credit where it’s due, the Hokies have won 3 of their last 4 and honestly since the second half of the Florida State game they appear to have their act together and playing decent (ACC caliber football). I’m also not sold on Louisville which outside of them manhandling Notre Dame have been fluky at best this year. The Cardinals have a habit of letting bad teams stick around beat Ga Tech by 5, Indiana by seven and NC State by three. None of that gives me a sense of confidence. The final kicker may be the inconsistent play of QB Jack Plummer who by his own coach’s admission can be turnover prone at times, three TDs, four INTs, under 150 pass yards twice in four games YIKES. You may have to shop this line but I found it at +10 at a few spots and like that.
Virginia Tech +10

Illinois +1.5 vs. Minnesota
The sharps seem to like this game and I’m jumping in for the ride. Opening with the Illini as a 3 point dog, which I liked this one has been hammered down to essentially a pick’em and I’m here for it. Illinois might be finding its groove after their best rushing game of the season against the Badgers two weeks ago. Meanwhile. Minnesota survived three turnovers to beat Michigan State last week, unimpressive and needed refs assistance to beat Iowa on the road before that. The Gophers are not great.
Illinois +1.5

LSU +3 vs. Alabama
I might regret this one by the second quarter, but I’m going to give it a shot. The line is short and I think Vegas knows something. Bama hasn’t been less than a 4 point favorite at home since 2007. LSU has quietly put together a good season. Well QB Jayden Daniels has put together a good season for the Tigers. Saturday night Daniels has the opportunity to take center stage in a Heisman Trophy defining performance and I think he takes full advantage of it. The LSU offense is a juggernaut. An achilleas heel for Saban teams over the years has been athletic QBs and dynamic play making receivers. Last year Daniels rushed for 95 yards in a victory over the Crimson Tide. Earlier this season Texas lit up Bama in the second half for 3 TDs but the defense has been mostly stout since then, 17th in points allowed in the nation. Alabama QB Milroe does not impress me, and this is the most uninspiring Bama offense I can remember seeing in Saban’s tenure. The Tigers offensive attack will require Bama to score points and with TDs at a premium I don’t trust Milroe to get the job done.
LSU +3

Clemson vs. Notre Dame -3 Over 44.5
I fully believe the wheels are coming off the Dabo Sweeny regime in Death Valley. Thank you Tyler for this gem. The Domers may be the best two loss team in the country. Their offense has scored over 40 points in 6 games this season. Death Valley at noon is a much different place than the Valley at night. For the first time in six years the fans aren’t in full lockstep with Dabo. I expect a superior Notre Dame team to walk in and have their way on offense and not let off the pedal until late in the fourth.
Notre Dame -3 Over 44.5

Iowa -4.5 vs. Northwestern Under 30.5
This might be the ugliest game I’ll ever watch, and I sat through the Iowa vs. Minnesota game two weeks ago. The O/U is set at 30.5 right now which has high school teams laughing. That said, Northwestern is bad and when they lose they lose badly, by multiple score. Despite having no known offense the Hawkeyes actually are cover machines the lost to Penn St. and the blown call against Minnesota are the only two times they’ve failed to cover. I’m also liking Kirk Ferentz to be fired up after being forced to give his son (the Iowa OC) his walking papers earlier this week.
Iowa -4.5 Under 30.5

Washington vs. USC Over 76.5
From the lowest scoring game of the week to the highest scoring game. The UW vs. USC game will feature two Heisman candidates squaring off in what I fully expect to be a shoot out. The Trojans have very little interest in playing defense. It took a 14 point comeback last week to sneak by the Bears, a game where they gave up 49 points. On the other side the Huskies seem to be struggling just a bit. They survived a scare against Arizona State that saw them held to a season low 14 points and last week Stanford gave them a run. But the Huskies offense was back on tracking dropping 42 points in the victory. Neither of these teams like to play defense or do it well, and I expect two top tier QBs to put on a show.
Over 76.5

Virginia vs. Ga. Tech Over 56
Honestly this one could go either way for me. The spread has the Hoos favored by 2 which is nice to see they are once against getting the homefield advantage bump. These are two programs that are very similar in their on the field performance as of late. The Ramblin Wreck have knocked off two ranked opponents in the last month. The Hoos are the epitome of heart break city managing to remain in close games but struggling to find ways to close the door. I’m not confident in the under here, as both teams hover around that 24 point mark. But I like the over.
Hoos Over 56


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After a woeful 1-7 record two weeks ago, I got things back on the right track with a 5-3 week. Dragon is worried because .500 is in sight, and I’m just thankful that .500 is still in sight. Overall, I’m 24-28-3.

I had trouble finding any underdogs I really liked this week, which is unusual…and possibly a bad sign. But hey, favorites have to win some of these games. I’ve just got to pick the right ones. Here goes:

Michigan -32.5 vs. Purdue Right off the bat, I’m taking the mighty Wolverines. They failed to cover their first four games, but have covered four straight with an average score of 49-6. The cheating scandal isn’t the kind of distraction that should affect play on the field. Michigan rolls.

Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss, under 53 Ole Miss has a top 15 offense, but A&M has a top-10 defense. Even with that offense, the Rebels have gone under the total in 4 of their last 5 games. A&M has hit the under in 4 of the last 6. I’ll go with the trends and take the under.

UCLA vs. Arizona, under 50.5 UCLA’s defense is impressive and Arizona has been one of the surprise teams in the country this year. I expect a very competitive game and for the defenses to shine. The total has been under in 4 of UCLA’s last 6 games and 7 of Arizona’s last 8 games.

Iowa St. -2.5 vs. Kansas I’m sticking with the Cyclones who have been good to me this year. They have covered on the road the last two weeks, and now they are back home facing a team coming off of an emotional high. I’m looking for a Jayhawk letdown against the tough Cyclone defense.

Nebraska -3 vs. Michigan St Nebraska has won 5 of its last 6 (Michigan was the loss), and are holding opponents to 11 points per game in those victories. Meanwhile the Spartans have lost 6 straight and (ignoring their own Michigan game) they are averaging 14 points per game in the other 5. Nebraska ain’t much, but they are on a roll and facing a team whose lack of offense falls right into their hands. Give me the Huskers.

FSU vs. Pitt, over 50.5 FSU has been over the total in 9 of its last 10; Pitt in 15 of its last 21. Pitt is averaging 22 points per game in home games against FBS opponents. Let’s go big on this one.

Virginia -2 vs. Georgia Tech Well, look who is picking a Virginia game for the first time this year! Virginia is playing better and, importantly, they have found a way to run the ball for positive yards. Finally, they can have some offensive balance. On the other side, the defense has held two pretty solid teams in check on the road the last couple of weeks. Result: Virginia is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games. Now, in walks Georgia Tech with perhaps one of the 5 worst defenses in college football, giving up 468 yards per game. No reason for the Virginia running attack to stall out on Saturday. In addition, Scott Stadium has been a house of horrors for Georgia Tech historically, going 1-4 both straight up and ATS in their last five games at Virginia. I like the Hoos laying less than a field goal here.

Air Force -18.5 vs. Army Oh good grief, what am I doing here?? The total on this game is only 32 and I’m giving up three touchdowns. Air Force hasn’t scored 18 points in any of the last six times they have played Army. Air Force has defeated Army by more than 18 points only once in their last twelve meetings. I don’t care. Air Force has the #1 rushing offense and the #2 rushing defense. Army is terrible. They have given up an average of 243 yards on the ground in their last four games. They only average 130 yards through the air and have four more interceptions than touchdown passes. They have committed eleven turnovers in the last three games. I’m going to kick myself when the final score is predictably 17-13, but this should be a blowout.


I’m still riding! Let’s go!

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I looked hard at the Va Tech/Louisville game. The Hokies are on a roll, but mostly against bad competition. I like Louisville and their running game to dominate this game, but I don’t blame you for taking the points.

Coward!! A real man would have taken the under in the Iowa game! 30.5. LOL

I like Notre Dame, Illinois, and the over between the Jackets and Hoos. Hope Saturday is good to you!


What are everyone’s recommendations for best betting app?

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Man you are brave you are brave. I agree, I had trouble finding a lot of lines that I liked which is why I settled on 7 games instead of 8 or 9.

Your Virginia take makes sense to me, but I couldn’t get past my emotions to jump on board. I also took long looks at that Nebraska and the Kansas line both call out to me. I can’t believe I missed the FSU line that’s a gimme.

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Draft Kings is my go to then Fan Duel then I go down the rabbit hole depending on spreads etc.

I’m translating this to “join them all… it don’t matter.” :rofl:


The points were too good pass on the VT Louisville game. If it dropped another 1 or 1.5 I’d be out.

I want to take that Iowa under so bad just to say I took it and hit, but yea I had to buy a dog I was too scared.

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There’s definitely an advantage to having more than one option because it allows you to shop around for the best number, which pays off in the long run.

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Yup, that’s really the rub right there. I typically use Draft Kings as my starting point mostly because I like the layout of their website and it’s easy to search. but I’ll use Vegas insider as a way to see multiple lines at once and then shop for the one I want.

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You have one game with an over/under of 30.5
I don’t believe I’ve ever seen one set that low. That’s a setup.


Lowest line a game has ever opened at. And I wouldn’t be surprised if the under hit

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I was thinking the same thing. Im going to keep an eye on it

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Tech wins and they have the inside track to the ACC title game with FSU. Crazy.

Go Cards!

Unfortunately it sounds like Louisville will be missing their best receiver and potentially a starting OL so I like Tech to cover as well

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Yea Tech being a game away from No.2 in the ACC is exactly why the ACC should disolve. It’s a self cannibalizing trash conference that some how spits out 1 juggernaut team a year.

10 is a massive spread especially for 2 non elite teams with avg paced offenses. UofL
can control the entire game and win comfortably and still never cover.

Probably some different gambling regulations in Germany. Would guess US based apps won’t work in Europe.

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Yeah. You can bet with your TV remote through your cable provider in Germany. You can bet anywhere on anything.


I’ve been shamed/talked into it give me Iowa vs Northwestern under 30.5 too


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