Last week 3-5
Overall 47-41-2
Woof last week was awful. Really no other way to put it. I can’t be that bad if I’m expecting to build a new house with these winnings. Toss in the fact that a .500 record is suddenly insight and the pressure is on to right this ship.
Virginia Tech +10 vs. Louisville
I hate backing the Hokies in anything, but desperate times call for desperate measure and I need a win. I also have to give credit where it’s due, the Hokies have won 3 of their last 4 and honestly since the second half of the Florida State game they appear to have their act together and playing decent (ACC caliber football). I’m also not sold on Louisville which outside of them manhandling Notre Dame have been fluky at best this year. The Cardinals have a habit of letting bad teams stick around beat Ga Tech by 5, Indiana by seven and NC State by three. None of that gives me a sense of confidence. The final kicker may be the inconsistent play of QB Jack Plummer who by his own coach’s admission can be turnover prone at times, three TDs, four INTs, under 150 pass yards twice in four games YIKES. You may have to shop this line but I found it at +10 at a few spots and like that.
Virginia Tech +10
Illinois +1.5 vs. Minnesota
The sharps seem to like this game and I’m jumping in for the ride. Opening with the Illini as a 3 point dog, which I liked this one has been hammered down to essentially a pick’em and I’m here for it. Illinois might be finding its groove after their best rushing game of the season against the Badgers two weeks ago. Meanwhile. Minnesota survived three turnovers to beat Michigan State last week, unimpressive and needed refs assistance to beat Iowa on the road before that. The Gophers are not great.
Illinois +1.5
LSU +3 vs. Alabama
I might regret this one by the second quarter, but I’m going to give it a shot. The line is short and I think Vegas knows something. Bama hasn’t been less than a 4 point favorite at home since 2007. LSU has quietly put together a good season. Well QB Jayden Daniels has put together a good season for the Tigers. Saturday night Daniels has the opportunity to take center stage in a Heisman Trophy defining performance and I think he takes full advantage of it. The LSU offense is a juggernaut. An achilleas heel for Saban teams over the years has been athletic QBs and dynamic play making receivers. Last year Daniels rushed for 95 yards in a victory over the Crimson Tide. Earlier this season Texas lit up Bama in the second half for 3 TDs but the defense has been mostly stout since then, 17th in points allowed in the nation. Alabama QB Milroe does not impress me, and this is the most uninspiring Bama offense I can remember seeing in Saban’s tenure. The Tigers offensive attack will require Bama to score points and with TDs at a premium I don’t trust Milroe to get the job done.
LSU +3
Clemson vs. Notre Dame -3 Over 44.5
I fully believe the wheels are coming off the Dabo Sweeny regime in Death Valley. Thank you Tyler for this gem. The Domers may be the best two loss team in the country. Their offense has scored over 40 points in 6 games this season. Death Valley at noon is a much different place than the Valley at night. For the first time in six years the fans aren’t in full lockstep with Dabo. I expect a superior Notre Dame team to walk in and have their way on offense and not let off the pedal until late in the fourth.
Notre Dame -3 Over 44.5
Iowa -4.5 vs. Northwestern Under 30.5
This might be the ugliest game I’ll ever watch, and I sat through the Iowa vs. Minnesota game two weeks ago. The O/U is set at 30.5 right now which has high school teams laughing. That said, Northwestern is bad and when they lose they lose badly, by multiple score. Despite having no known offense the Hawkeyes actually are cover machines the lost to Penn St. and the blown call against Minnesota are the only two times they’ve failed to cover. I’m also liking Kirk Ferentz to be fired up after being forced to give his son (the Iowa OC) his walking papers earlier this week.
Iowa -4.5 Under 30.5
Washington vs. USC Over 76.5
From the lowest scoring game of the week to the highest scoring game. The UW vs. USC game will feature two Heisman candidates squaring off in what I fully expect to be a shoot out. The Trojans have very little interest in playing defense. It took a 14 point comeback last week to sneak by the Bears, a game where they gave up 49 points. On the other side the Huskies seem to be struggling just a bit. They survived a scare against Arizona State that saw them held to a season low 14 points and last week Stanford gave them a run. But the Huskies offense was back on tracking dropping 42 points in the victory. Neither of these teams like to play defense or do it well, and I expect two top tier QBs to put on a show.
Over 76.5
Virginia vs. Ga. Tech Over 56
Honestly this one could go either way for me. The spread has the Hoos favored by 2 which is nice to see they are once against getting the homefield advantage bump. These are two programs that are very similar in their on the field performance as of late. The Ramblin Wreck have knocked off two ranked opponents in the last month. The Hoos are the epitome of heart break city managing to remain in close games but struggling to find ways to close the door. I’m not confident in the under here, as both teams hover around that 24 point mark. But I like the over.
Hoos Over 56
