🏈 🎰 Dragon's College Football Picks Week 10 Season 6

[BDragon]

Last Week 4-5
Overall 41-41

Another week bellow .500 is a trend that needs to stop this weekend. Overall I’m hanging in there on the season and have made a few dollars along the way. But with a big weekend ahead in Charlottesville for the Wake game, Dragon’s needs a few extra dollars if he expects to be poppin bottles at Boylans on Saturday morning.

Dragon’s Picks are brought to you by Dragon’s Lair Training, Tall Pines Gifts and lost summer dreams.

Oklahoma vs. Tennessee -2.5 Over 55.5
Oklahoma’s quarterback John Mateer’s passing and rushing numbers have both dipped in the three games he played since injuring his hand early in the season. It’s clear he’s not playing at 100% currently. Meanwhile, Tennessee’s offense is humming with first-year starting quarterback Joey Aguliar. The Vols defense has given up 30+ to Kentucky, Arkansas and Mississippi St. this season, that’s enough for the Sooners to get some points on the board for the over, but OU doesn’t have enough explosive plays to win the game.
Tennessee-2.5 Over 55.5

Georgia -7 vs. Florida
The greatest tragedy is modern college football is this game is no longer known as a cocktail party, and saddled with that is this is the last year this game will be played in Jacksonville Fl. Great for Dragon they are coming to ATL next year but Friday night on the Landing was fun. I love that this line is staying low. On paper you’d think Florida is a mess and would get their doors blown off in this spot. I expect to see the Gators come out with an aggressive gameplan. The Gators are a solid team, they just can’t get it all together on offense. Kirby has the Bulldogs focused on the CFP and a nation title run. The Bulldogs defense is not what it was a few years ago but it is still a dangerous unit and will feast on a Florida group that has not found their stride all season.
Georgia -7

Washington St. -3.5 vs. Oregon St.
It’s the battle for the empty husk that is the Pack 12. Last time I bet against the Beavers they let me down and covered against a Houston team that was completely out of sync. Despite, that the Beavers are 1-7 with their lone win coming against Lafayette. Oregon St ranks 99th in yards per play on offense and 125th on defense. They’re coming off a bye but some extra rest cannot fix everything. Washington St. has struggled at times this season but overall their defense has played well. The Cougs lost close games at Ole Miss and Virginia (Hoo could forget), where they were leading in the fourth quarter of both contests. They returned home to end the streak by beating Toledo 28-7. Over Washington St’s. last four games, their defense allowed just 14 points per game and against the two worst offenses in that bunch, they allowed just three and seven points.
Washington St. -3.5

Utah -10.5 vs. Cincinnati
The line is showing a lot of respect for the Utes in this spot, especially since it appears Utah quarterback Devon Dampier will be back calling plays on Saturday night. The possibility of Dampier playing helped lift this line from 7 when it opened to the current 10.5 unfortunately that’s where Dragon jumped in but I’m rolling with it.. The Bearcats are the higher ranked team but they are in a bad spot, a late game on the road in a hostile environment against a team that is coming off a blowout victory over another conference foe.
Utah -10.5

Kansas St. -7.5 vs. Texas Tech
Yes Texas Tech gets their QB back, but I don’t believe Behren Morton is 100% healthy and that will show when guiding an offense that wants to use tempo to keep opponents on their heels. KState has turned their running back on the past few weeks which will be crucial for keeping the Red Raiders offense on the sidelines.
Kansas St. -7.5

New Mexico +4.5 vs. UNLV
This game has all sorts of former UVa ties so why wouldn’t I bet it. UNLV started the season so hot that head coach Dan Mullen started getting named as possible candidate for some of the coaching openings we’re seeing. UNLV has dodged a lot of bullets on the field recently and last time out Boise St. nailed them handing the Rebels their first loss of the season. New Mexico has put together a solid season and are looking to be bowl eligible. Their offense can be a tricky one to prepare for and I think they find a way to get points on the board against UNLV. This feels like a fun track meet style game.
New Mexico +4.5

SMU +12.5 vs. Miami
Miami has not left the state of Florida all season. Miami Head Coach Mario Cristobol is 4-10 in his last 14 games in November December. Sometimes these trends matter. Mario has struggled to get his teams to execute down the stretch and now you add in some travel adversity that this year’s team has not faced before. 12.5 is a big number for a team that has struggled the last two weeks. In an early game 12 PM ET. I have to wonder how fired up will the Canes be? You know Rhett Lashlee has had this game against his former employers circled all year.
SMU +12.5

Virginia -5.5 vs. Cal Under 53.5
The Virginia offense has been bad the past few weeks. It’s a far cry from what we saw on the field in the first five weeks of the season. There’s been enough said about why that may be the case. What I have liked recently from the Hoos is their defense especially the work from the front 7. As a unit the Hoos rank 13th in the nation in third down efficiency holding opponents to converting just 40% of their attempts. That number drops to opponents only converting 34% over the last three games. Getting off the field on their down is essential for success. Cal has a first year QB and he has experienced all the highs and lows this season. After a hot start Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has returned to earth over the last four games. JKS cleaned up the number interceptions he’s thrown keeping that stat column clean the past two games, but he is taking more sacks and his completion numbers have dropped. Translation, he’s trying to read the field more to protect the ball, and is holding on to the ball too long. I could go on to break down the tape between these two teams, but what I’ve found interesting is the line movement on this game. Opening at Virginia -4 and sinking to -3.5 by midweek the line is now solidly at 5.5 and even 6 in a few books as of Friday morning. Why the sudden shift? It has to do with the mood inside the Cal locker room. I’ve seen multiple reports about civil unrest inside the locker room. It was mentioned here earlier that the boards were not happy with Cal Coach Justin Wilcox, it seems that discontent is not within the locker room and occurring between players as well. Normally I would not pay these rumors much interest, but when when it gets to Vegas and money starts coming in enough to move a line, then it catches my eye.
Virginia -5.5.

[5sheff]

The Battle for the Empty Husk! I love it and I’m joining you on the pick.

Huge SEC game for the Vols and Sooners. VSIN had this lengthy but impressive nugget favoring Tennessee: “1) In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 211-106 SU and 184-124-9 ATS (59.7%). 2) Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 122-28 SU and 91-55-4 ATS (62.3%). 3) Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 63-25 SU and 56-29-3 ATS (65.9%) since 2017.”

Georgia seems like the pick … I haven’t heard or seen anyone anywhere picking Florida to cover. Why is the line stuck at 7 points??

I continue to hover around .500. I was 6-5 last week which makes me 35-31-1 for the year. Let’s see if I can creep another game or two higher with these picks:

Houston -13.5 vs. West Virginia - A late addition to the picks, and clearly a vote against West Virginia as a road team. West Virginia is 1-3 ATS on the road this year while Houston is 3-1 ATS at home. The Mountaineers have lost by 31 at Kansas, 34 at Utah, and 32 at UCF.

UTEP vs. Kennesaw St., under 51 - This was my early week pick that went astray. Kennesaw and UTEP looked inept on offense early, but a scoop and score and punt return for a TD pushed it over the total. Boo.

Army pick 'em vs. Air Force - There is some love for Air Force on this board, but I’m picking against them this week. I can’t trust Air Force to stop anyone, and Army has shown the ability to put up points against the poorer defenses it has played (38 against N Texas, 31 against UAB). Since the start of 2023, Air Force is 5-10 ATS as home team. I didn’t use the same time period for Army since they were a much better team the last two years, but even just taking this year’s results, they are 3-1 ATS as the away team. If I had to give up more than 3 points, I would hesitate, but straight up, I’ll take the Black Knights.

Louisiana +4 vs. South Alabama - The road team has won each of the last 4 match-ups between these two. South Ala. has not won by 4 points in any of the last 9 meetings, only winning two of them. In the last two years, Louisiana has a winning record ATS on the road, as a road underdog, and in conference games. During the same period, South Alabama is under water as a home team, home favorite, and in conference games.

Texas Tech -7 vs. Kansas State - KState has won 8 in a row against Texas Tech and 12 of the last 13. But I’m bucking the trend this week! (what?!?) Texas Tech has already won on the road convincingly at Houston and Utah. KState has turned their season around after a 1-3 start. But they have not seen a defense like this one. Kansas State has put up some points recently, but so much of that is aided by the turnovers they have been forcing (4 against Kansas, 3 against TCU, 2 against Baylor, 3 against UCF). That’s impressive, but if Texas Tech just holds on to the ball and KState has to work without momentum against the Red Raider defense, we’re going to see a 14-20 point output instead of a 30-40 point total. Texas Tech has been focusing on ball security this week and they get their starting QB back in the lineup. Red Raiders are 7-1 ATS this year for a reason.

Boise St. -17.5 vs. Fresno St. - Boise is 6-2 ATS this season and 8-3 ATS as a home team over the past two years. They are 8-3-1 in conference games and 11-5-1 after a win. Meanwhile, Fresno is 6-9-1 ATS as an away team, 4-14-1 in conference games, and 3-8-1 after a loss. Fresno also benched their starting QB in favor of a transfer from Sacramento St., who started last week’s game. The result? 47% completion percentage and 2 interceptions. Now he is on the road on the Blue Turf where the Broncos have a top 35 passing defense that is top 5 in interceptions.

Michigan St. vs. Minnesota, over 45.5 - Michigan St. has hit the over in six out of 8 games this year, and in the last year and a half are 6-2 to hit the over as an away team.

Washington St. -3.5 vs. Oregon St. - In the last 2.5 years, Oregon State is 3-10 ATS as an underdog, 2-4 as a home dog, and 0-4 after a bye. Meanwhile Washington St. has passed the eye test over the last three games, consistently bringing it against solid competition, losing close games to ranked Mississippi and Virginia, and dominating Toledo.

Maryland +21.5 vs. Indiana - The last time Indiana put up monster numbers at home against a good Big Ten team, they came back down to earth on the road with a modest 20-15 win against a good defensive team in Iowa. Same thing happens here. I’ve seen some people say that Maryland is slumping. And it’s true that after winning its first four games, Maryland has lost three straight. But in each of those three losses they have held 4th quarter leads against Washington, Nebraska, and UCLA.

They have had an extra week to prepare for Indiana, which should help - over the last year and a half, Maryland is 2-1 ATS after a bye and 3-1 as a home underdog. Finally, Indiana is tremendous on the defensive line, stopping the run (top-10ish) and sacking the QB (top 5-ish). Maryland doesn’t care. The Terps don’t run the ball, passing it on nearly 62% of snaps. Yet they are also #1 in the country at sack prevention and #6 in fewest interceptions. Give me the Terrapins to keep it close.

Other games I seriously considered:

UCF +3.5 vs. Baylor

Louisville -11 vs. Virginia Tech

Notre Dame -28.5 vs. Boston College (ND is 11-3 ATS after a bye and 13-5 as an away team since 2021)

Colorado +4.5 vs. Arizona (Since the beginning of the Deion era, Colorado is 12-4-1 ATS at home, 6-1 as a home underdog, and 10-2-2 after a loss. But that offense against Utah… Do the Buffs have a QB? No, I just can’t…)

[BDragon]

That’ that we locked in on a couple of plays.

Looks like we’re going head to head on another one.

I like the Boise line. It’s a big number but love the numbers behind it.

[Jerome]

Great nugget about lockerroom unrest with Cal. Love to hear it.

Also, is that 3.5 line not shockingly low for how bad Oregon State’s been and good WSU has looked of late? What am I missing there

[BDragon]

The WSU line is low. I was surprised by it.

Similar to what @5sheff said about the Florida line. I don’t know why there’s not been movement.

[5sheff]

I think the low number probably relates to how unimpressive the Washington State offense has been. Even in the last four games when they have been playing well, they have only averaged 22 points per game. They have a pretty even split rushing vs. passing, and they rush for 117 yards per game and pass for 213. Bleh. If they are only going to score 20 points, how much can they be favored by?

If I squint really really hard, I can see an Oregon State cover. They have historically played well at home (20-10 ATS since 2021), it’s a rivalry game where they have won two of the last three (both at Corvallis), they gave Houston a tussle earlier this year, and they may get a bounce from having fired their coach a couple of weeks ago.

It could happen, but I wouldn’t place my money on it…

[BDragon]

Probably right, about the WSU offense. I focused in on their defense and what they’ve done holding a couple good teams in check and manhandling the bad ones in front of them. I like that it’s low because it’s more obtainable and realistic. Similar to how I liked the Hoos at 4/4.5 better than 5 and honestly I’d stay away from the 6’s or if it climbs higher.

[BDragon]

Also random note I didn’t include in my write-up but put Georgia Tech on upset alert. There is something going on with King at QB. He’s admitted to be pissing blood this week, but swears he’s okay. Last I checked that’s not a good sign especially for a QB that is relied on as much as he is.

[5sheff]

I double-checked with AI and you’re right:

“It is important to know that pissing blood (hematuria) is not a good sign and should not be ignored.”

[haney]

With a good enough prompt, I bet you could get AI to tell you that pissing blood somehow makes you a super-genius

[BDragon]

Not saying I’m a doctor or anything but I feel like that’s not something that should be bragged about and that young man should go see a doctor… soon.

[4547Lambeth]

Where does blood in your urine rank on Tom Herman’s pee color chart?

https://twitter.com/anwarrichardson/status/851914635833901058?s=46&t=KRUvpbKQ9s5_3BPeM0gClg

[BDragon]

LOLOL

Guess you’re worst than a bad guy…

Great pull I forgot about that.

[Galileo24]

Virginia will lose by 10+. The offense has regressed to Des’s pre 2025, Morris is injured/struggling and the defense can only do but so much to protect the misfiring offense. And the clincher here is that anytime I predict a win it’s a disaster so I’m predicting a double digit fiasco catastrophic Godzilla-stomp extinction-event loss. And to answer the burning question in your minds, yes, coaches hotly pursued by P4 programs don’t use commas.

My agent is calling again. Effing Arkansas. I told him, no SEC except Georgia or Texas (not a big fan of the state of Texas but Austin is nice). Wiscy maybe since I’m a Packer fan, but I’m really waiting for the Georgia, Michigan, Notre Dame or Ohio State jobs to open up.

[HooDat]

@5sheff

Washington State

@5sheff

22 points

[jazznutUVA]

@5sheff

There is some love for Air Force on this board, but I’m picking against them this week

This is what I think of your pick @5sheff

[CavTex]

Bahahaha @jazznutUVA

[4547Lambeth]

Trust me to immediately think of references from 10+ years ago that everyone’s forgotten but I think happened like just a couple years ago.

[4547Lambeth]

I’m always reminded of this clip.

[HoozGotNext]

@BDragon

Tennessee -3.5

Seems like a game UT needs and it’s discounted to 2.5 now, I’m in.

@BDragon

Georgia -7

Nibbled that one too at 7.5

@BDragon

Washington St. -3.5

Baity line for sure and has the Dragon + Sheff jinx too but still, I’m rolling with it.

@5sheff

Army pick 'em

Sheff’s mid major calls have been paying my bills lately, so down with the flying Jazznuts