Last Week 5-3
Overall 53-44-2
I said it last week, 5-3 never felt so bad, but hey as long as you’re winning that’s all that matters. I’m starting the week off on the right foot having taken Hoos +20.5 and over 50 last night in Louisville (check the tapes if you doubt). The Hoos have been bad on the field but they are a cash cow for me this season. Now, let’s keep the winning ways going.
Cincinnati vs. Houston Under 53.5
Two Big 12 new comers battling it out for the bottom of the conference. The Bearcats are still in search of their first Big 12 victory, sorry @AnonymooseHoo, but the Cinci offense is not great, averaging a touch over 25 ppg, but if you take out a week 1 blowout of EKU that number drops to 20 ppg. Houston is experiencing their own growing pains adapting to life in a P5. But they have squeaked out two conference wins by a combined 3 points. It won’t be pretty but the Bearcats will lumber their way along and keep this thing low scoring and close.
Under 53.5
Iowa vs Rutgers Under 28
This is insane and it’s too much fun to pass on even when my gut is telling me to skip it. The line opened at 30, but the hype train is in full swing and bettors hammered it down to 28 in most books. I’ve even seen a few remove it from the board. This is one of the ones where it feels like the hype about the under is too much, but I’m doing it. Fun note, there hasn’t been a total this low since 2000, but there have been 1,500 games with higher first half totals during that time.
Under 28
Michigan -4.5 vs. Penn State Under 45
Yes I’m taking another under, so you know one of them will miss, who wants to play 3 card monty with me to see which one misses? The Wolverines and PSU have solid defenses and they will be on display in Happy Valley on Saturday. My biggest question is can PSU find any way to put points on the board? OSU bottled them up in their meeting. Both teams like to control the ball and control the clock. This is going to be methodical throughout. I also really like what Michigan has going on. Most coaches love a “Us against the world” story and Harbaugh has the ultimate one right now with his team. Hell he’s got the entire administration backing him at this point. I think the off the field noise actually sharpens the Wolverines resolve and focus.
Michigan -4.5 Under 45
Oregon -15.5 vs. USC Over 76
Big Cover alert. For the second consecutive week I’m taking a massive over with USC. Last week the Trojans and the Huskies blew past the 76 and nearly hit 100. USC gave their defensive coordinator his walking papers for his efforts, but there’s no way they plugged the holes on that side of the ball in one week. Enter a one-loss Oregon team that is on a mission. Last week the Ducks dropped 63 on Cal and Bo Nix is getting the Heisman hype he envisioned 4 years ago when he enrolled at Auburn. Caleb Williams has put on amazing display after amazing display this season for USC, last week he went toe-to-toe with Michael Penix Jr. and with Saturday likely his last opportunity on the big stage I expect him to go down slinging.
Oregon -15.5 over 76
Washington vs. Utah Over 50
I like that Big Penix Energy. I’ve loved watching Michael Penix play this season and think what he has done is special and one of the reasons I love college football. Utah has a history of playing spoiler in these situations and I think Washington is due for an upset at some point, but even if they falter on Saturday, they’re going to score points. Utah prides itself on their defense, but the secondary is absolutely a weak spot. In addition while the Utah front can get to the quarterback they tend to bring pressure from the edge and Penix has shown an ability to step up into the pocket and make plays when that happens. When he’s pressure from up the middle he has more trouble escaping, but that’s not the Utes strength. Interesting, the line on this one is dipping, it opened at 53.5 but I think it’s setting up perfectly. The Huskies awful defense (they gave up 42 to USC last week and 33 to Stanford the week before) will give the Utes opportunities to move the ball and put points on the board, something they are adept to especially coming off a bye week where they average 40ppg in their last four games coming off a bye.
Over 50
