Last Week 5-3
Overall 44-37-1
The season is quickly winding down. Before you know it Dragon will be walking across the lawn on his way to tailgate for the SMU game in a few weeks. Time certainly does fly when you are having fun. And at 44-37 Iām still having fun picking these games.
As always Dragons College Football Picks are brought to you by our sponsors, Dragonās Lair Training, not skipping leg day, and cheese.
Indiana -14.5 vs. Michigan
Itās hard to believe that Michigan won a national championship less than 12 months ago. The window for success can be small. The Wolverines are heading south to take on Indiana as two touchdown dogs which may be a first in program history. But itās a first that is well earned thanks to the Michigan offense. The Wolverines have no options at QB and currently rank 104th national in scoring and 128th in passing. The Wolverines have topped 30-plus points just once this season. Meanwhile the Hoosiers are the underdog darlings of the college football world. Indianaās high powered offense led by quarterback Kurtis Rourke average 43 points per game and are ranked third in scoring offense. Rourke has the ability to take the top off a defense completing 53% of his deep balls, a skill that is sought after by most teams.
Indiana -14.5
Iowa -6 vs. UCLA
The Hawkeyes of Iowa transformed into a solid offensive unit this season. They wonāt light the scoreboard up but they rank 45th in points per game and are 28th in rushing thanks to Kaleb Johnson averaging 7.5 yards per carry. The key to Iowaās offensive success is being efficient on first and second down. The Hawkeyes know what they have and they make sure to get solid yardage on first and second down leaving them with manageable third downs and not asking a lot of their QB. Iowa enters this weekās game ranked 31st in third down conversions. UCLA has improved as the season progressed in week 4 of the season I thought this was a program headed for a nosedive but first year head coach Deshaun Watson has salvaged the season. The Bruins have a solid defense that does not give up big plays, but they take gut punches and donāt get off the field on third down.
Iowa -6
Iowa St. -3 vs Kansas
Time to bounce back. Iowa State suffered their first lost of the season last weekend when they wee upset at home by Texas Tech, now the Cyclones travel to Kansas City for neutral site game with a 2-6 Kansas squad. The Jayhawks might be better than their record shows having three of there loses coming by 6 or less points and thatās why we see the spread remaining tight on this one. I like having history on my side for this one, Iowa State is 27-14-1 ATS following a straight up loss. Matt Campbell is well equipped to get his boys to turn their play around quickly. I also like that despite being played in Kansas City, the Cyclone fans will travel and could potentially make this a home game for Iowa St.
Iowa St. -3
Texas vs. Florida Under 47.5
Florida hung tough with Georgia last week but losing quarterback D.J. Lagway proved too much of an obstacle to overcome. Itās looking like the Gators will be without the services of Lagway on Saturday as well. Combine that with some of the other injuries Florida took on last week and you have a team limping into what should have been a great showdown. On the other side, Texas is coming off a bye and expecting to be healthy. Theyāve had plenty of time to prep for facing a backup. Look for the Longhorns to want to make a statement against their new SEC rivals.
UNDER 47.5
Hawaii +13 vs. UNLV
Remember when UNLV threatened to shake up the college football world when they lost their QB to NIL after starting 3-0? As we approach the final weeks of the season the Rebels are 6-2 and still rolling thanks to a forceful rushing attack. The ground game is the only offense UNLV can rely on. UNLV ranks 115th in passing yards pers game. The Rainbow Warriors have proven to be a tough team at home giving up just 15 points a game. A large reason for that is their ability to stop the run. If Hawaii can stifle the Rebels rushing attack and get the offense off the field it could open up opportunities for dual threat QB Bryden Schager to showcase his skills.
Hawaii +13
Colorado -3.5 vs. Texas Tech
Itās strange to type this, but I kind of forgot about Colorado this season. Theyāve flown under the radar a bit and in that time the Buffs have gotten themselves into the thick of a Big 12 title run. Itās obvious what Colorado brings to the table they are a high powered offense led by the best QB in college football Shedeur Sanders and flanked by Travis Hunter. When those two have time to work they make magic happen on the field. Coloradoās top four passing targets are averaging at least 12.6 yards per reception. This is a unit that makes big plays happen. Texas Tech had their moment last week when they went on the road and got the upset win over Iowa State. But this is still a very flawed team with a soft defense. The Red Raiders rank 107th in defense points per drive and 127th in pressure rate (thatās how often they get to the QB). Those are numbers that wonāt do it against an elite passing unit. Teams that have knocked off or hung with Colorado have one thing in common, they control the line of scrimmage and get after the quarterback. If Texas Tech is unable to do that, it will be a long afternoon.
Colorado -3.5
TCU -10.5 vs. Oklahoma St.
This is the worst season I recall watching from a Mike Gundy coached team. Oklahoma State has not won a Big 12 game. I am becoming convinced that Gundy has lost the team and they are already looking ahead to the offseason. The TCU offense has been warming up lately averaging 30 points per game. Quarterback Josh Hoover has led the way for the Horned Frogs tossing 21 touchdowns already this season.
TCU -10.5
Kennesaw State vs. UTEP Under 42
Kennesaw State is 1-7 UTEP enters the game 1-8. These are two of the worst teams in college football. They also are responsible for the lowest two TD percentage per drive rates in the country (UTEP 13.2% Kennesaw State 11.1%). These are two groups that donāt find the endzone.
UNDER 42
Virginia vs. Pitt Under 57
A night game on the road in Pittsburgh a week after the Panthers traveled to Texas and got stomped by SMU what could go wrong? Iāve said it for a few weeks that I never thought Pitt was as good as their record showed. The Pitt offense has struggled all season and when meeting up against a stout defense last week they were exposed. If the Eli Holstein can get the Panthers offense going then I expect the Pitt defense to hold up their end of the deal and contain the Hoos. But if the Pitt offense struggles this could be a rock fight. Either way I donāt see both teams combining for an impressive number.
UNDER 57
