Last Week 7-2
We are working our way to the conclusion of the season and looking for finish strong. I’d also like to take a moment to thank my sponsor The Graduate Hotel for the luxurious accommodations as I bring this week’s picks to you live from Charlottesville Va.
Arizona St +24.5 vs. Oregon
The Ducks cost me a perfect week last week and now I’m out for revenge. For those keeping score, I am 0-2 on revenge bets this season. This one comes down to a couple factors for me, the state of Arizona has not treated the Ducks well over the years and has typically been a tricky spot. I don’t think the Sun Devils win this one outright, but I do think the number is too big for this late in the season. The Ducks have what is likely the most difficult Civil War game in my memory next week and if they win that a possible Pac12 Championship appearance after that. I think that’s enough on their mind to open the back door ASU.
Arizona State +24.5
Iowa vs. Illinois Under 32
I’m going to ride this one into the ground. On consecutive weeks I took Iowa and the under and they delivered. You have to go back to September 30th for the last time the Hawkeyes hit the over. I also like that Iowa has only scored more than 20 points in a game twice since September. Illinois has did not make the leap many expected this season, but they keep things close. They last four games were decided by an average of 2.75 points.
USC vs UCLA Under 65.5
Not often I opt for the under on a Pac12 game but this is the rare exception. The rumor mill has this being Chip Kelly’s last cross town rivalry and given his performance that might be the right call. The Bruins have a combine total of 39.7ppg in seven conference games this year. What happened to the offensive guru that was Chip Kelly? Now UCLA is best known for grinding games to a stand still and boring us all out of the Rose Bowl. Caleb Williams has poured his heart out for the Trojans but he joins the long list of QB’s who were let down by a Lincoln Riley defense. The Trojans can lay the smack down and keep this one relatively low scoring due to lack of possessions.
Michigan vs. Maryland Under 50
You’re going to need to hold on to your butts for this one. I expect the Terps to come out fired up and put up some points early on. But much like last week in Happy Valley, I think Michigan chokes the life out of this game. Last week they ran the ball 27 times in the second half and threw it once. The Wolverines grind teams into the dirty with the ground attack. I don’t expect many points once we get out of the first half.
Washington vs. Oregon St. Over 62.5
The spread has been all over the place here. I’ve seen the Huskies as much as a 2pt dog and as of today (Friday afternoon) they are settling around 1.5. The reason? the Beavers are great at home and are the best 2 loss team n the country currently. I’m too scared to touch the spread because I don’t want to bet against Penix Jr. and the Huskies but at some point their string of crazy wins has to end. What I do expect is for this to be a classic Pac12 affair with lots of points.
Virginia +3.5 vs Duke Over 46
For the first time in 7 years almost to the date the Dragon will grace Scott Stadium and it will be a glorious experience. The Hoos may be the unluckiest team in college football going 1-5 in one score games this season. The real kicker for me is it looks like Riley Leonard is out again and with him goes the Duke offense. I think the Blue Devils wills core enough points to hold up their end of the bargin for an over, but with some home cooking the Hoos punch through.
Virginia +3.5 Over 46