Last Week 5-7
Overall 49-44-1
Okay Iâm officially nervous. Every year I start off with the expectation that I will finish above .500 picking games here and with two weeks left in the regular season I am holding onto a slim lead and it could disappear with one bad week. The pressure is on. Luckily I am built for this and will buckle down these final few weeks and lock up another winning season. Much like Georgia, Notre Dame and several other teams with CFP dreams, the playoffs start now for Dragonâs College Football Picks.
As always Dragonâs College Picks are brought to you by Dragonâs Lair Training, 300g of protein a day, and I need 2 for SMU who got me?
Washington -4.5 vs. UCLA
A little Friday night action to kick this weekend off hoping to start off things on the front foot. The Washington Huskies have been stout at home with a 5-0 record. Their offense is more efficient when at home and more importantly their pass defense turns into one of the best unite in the country when at home. The Huskies defense is only allowing 155 passing yards per game, tied for fourth in the nation. That could spell trouble for UCLAâs quarterback Ethan Garbers who has tossed 11 picks on the sesaon, including 2 against Iowa. Remember that home field advantage for the Huskies? Six of the eight picks the defense have forced have come on their home turf. Driving the point home further, the Huskies have only allowed five touchdowns at Husky Stadium this season. As Iâve mentioned in previous weeks UCLA was dead in the water in September but they have strung three wins in a row in November in October and seemingly have righted the ship. However, those wins came against Rutgers, Nebraska and Iowa, not a murderous row of offensive juggernauts.
Washington -4.5
Colorado -10.5 vs. Utah
I am a Colorado hater, but even I will admit they are living up to expectations this season at 7-2. What makes me like them even more is they are 7-2 ATS as well this season. The sheer talent on offense has proven to bee too much for most teams to stand up to. Utah had their hearts broken last week at home against BYU thanks to a bad last minute call. Itâs been a difficult season for the Utes who went from CFP hopefuls to bottom of the Big 12 thanks to injuries that have left their offense inept. The betting money has fallen back in love with the Buffs as well, the line opened at 8 and has ballooned to 11 in some spots. Iâll jump on it while I can at 10.5 and join the circus for one more week.
Colorado -10.5
Kansas State -7.5 vs. Arizona State
Speaking of Big 12 matchups the Wild Cats and Sun Devils both remain in contention and with their meeting on Saturday, the loser will see those hopes eliminated. Kansas State is coming off a loss to Houston as a 12.5pt favorite and then a bye week, and in a great position to get themselves right at home where they have a history taking care of business (13-4 ATS as a home favorite since 2022). History is on the Wildcatâs side, dating back to 202 they have covered nine consecutive games after a straight up loss. Trends arenât the only thing I am considering here, Iâve liked what Iâve seen from Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson this season. In his last outing he tossed two interceptions that helped seal his teams fate. I expect him to bounce back with a strong showing Saturday night.
Kansas State -7.5
Boise St. vs. San Jose State +14 Under 61.5
Ashton Jeanty might be the best player that youâve heard up but have never seen. His stats are staggering and given the Broncos shift in offensive focus I donât see him slowing down in the final weeks of the season. Unfortunately for Boise State fans, I do not see the shift in focus improving the overall output for the Boise offense. Letâs talk about the shift in the Broncos offense. In their last four games Boise State has scored 29 points or fewer and theirs a reason why. The Broncos are running Jeanty into the ground. During that stretch Jeantyâs workload has surged to at least 31 carries a game, up from his previous max of 26 carries during the first half of the season. Overall Boise State is now running the ball 60% of the time for a total of 44 attempts a game. The San Jose defense has proven to be opportunistic forcing turnings and getting off the field in third down situations.
San Jose State +14 Under 61.5
Kansas +2.5 vs. BYU
I mentioned the minor miracle BYU needed last week to escape with a win against Utah. The Kansas Jayhawks are on a roll after upsetting Iowa State last week. Quarterback Jalon Daniels has been on fire as of late. I expect the Jayhawks to attack a BYU unit that struggled to slow down a depleted Utah attack last week. Going on a bit of gut here, but after watching BYU last week, I am off the Cougars bandwagon, a few weeks ago I said they would win the Big 12 but what I saw last week was a team that could not execute a two minute drill and was penalty prone.
Kansas +2.5
Virginia +23.5 vs Notre Dame Over 50.5
Every bit of the Virginia fan in me wants to see the upset here, but the more I dig into Notre Dame the harder it is for me to see an upset brewing. ND coach Freeman has already put the locker room on notice that this is a playoff elimination game for the Irish. They will not be overlooking a Virginia team that went on the road last week and knocked off a top 25 team. My biggest fear in this one is that it could get ugly early with Des and the Virginia offense yielding to their worst tendencies. The Notre Dame defense ranks in the top 25 nationally and their pass defense is currently ranked seventh. If the Hoos put this game on ACâs arm the results will not be good. My picks here are to CYA. If the Hoos defense steps up and they get pressure on the Irish they could grind the offense the a halt and make this a muddy game and cover the 23 (doesnât need to be too muddy to do that). However if the Hoos lean into their worst tendencies then I see the Irish running away with it and carrying their weight in cover the total.
Bonus Pick
There was talk in another thread about the Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight later tonight, and yes I will be watching this train wreck. Every bit of me wants to take Tyson, and after a late media blitz thereâs a lot of money following Tyson heading into tonight. However, my fear here is this âfightâ is more WWE than boxing, or for you true pre-wrestling nerds think of this of the old Pancrase promotion from Japan. Meaning I would not be surprised if this is all a worked-shoot and Paul steps back and dances while Tyson pulls his punches and we end in some sort of split decision when itâs all done. But that doesnât mean that every fiber of me wants to see the Iron Mike I feared as a child going out there and knocking a fool out.
