🏈 🎰 Dragon's College Football Picks Week 12 Season 6

[BDragon]

Last week 4-2
Overall 50-46

Last week didn’t go the way of the Hoos but it went well for Dragon in a must win situation. I’m glad I was able to pull it and get above .500 for the year. However, I have to admit I wish I had a few more wins in my pocket to lockup my third consecutive year above .500.

Dragon’s picks are brought to you by Dragon’s Lair Training, Tall Pines Gifts, and Jacket-Off

Georgia vs. Texas +6.5 Over 48.5
Kirby Smart knows how to win games and it could be argued he is the best big game coach in college football. Georgia is 8-0 against top-10 teams in Athens, covering all but one game. Texas has been an underdog eight times under Steve Sarkisian. The Longhorns have pulled just one upset and that was at Alabama in 2023. Texas is going to need a heavy dose of their running game against a Kirby Smart led defense that is not dominate, but they know how to finish tight games. Sharp money is coming in big on the points and have seen guys taking it at 49.5 as the line is rising in some books.

Kennesaw St. vs. Jacksonville St. +3.5
Really wish this one was in my backyard so I could jump over and watch but that’s not how life goes. The Jax St Gamecocks run the ball very well and are one of the best in Conference USA , averaging 252 rushing yards per game at 5.2 yards per carry. That’s putting in serious work. The ground game is led by RB Cam Cook, who’s already over 1,100 yards on the season. The Gamecocks also have a mobile QB in Caden Creel which adds another wrinkle to their attack. The Kennesaw State defense that has been solid overall but has shown cracks against run-heavy offenses late in games. They don’t have the depth to hold up through four quarters. That will prove problematic when playing a team that expects to run the ball 40+ times on Saturday.

Notre Dame -12.5 vs. Pittsburgh
47 straight road wins as a double digit favorite for the Domers. Love that trend. 7-0 in this role with Marcus Freeman at the HC. Vegas also really loves this line it blew up from opening at 10 and I’m seeing 13’s in some places at the time of writing this (Friday AM). If you have a boast or a way to buy back a point I’d advise it. Kicking myself for not getting in on 10. That said, Freeman and his Notre Dame squad understand the task at hand. Pitt has been the class of the ACC over the last month, but they still struggle to stop the run, and they don’t run the ball very well. Notre Dame is not going to play a style of game that sees them in a shootout. The body blows are too much for Pitt to overcome and their young QB struggles against an ND defense that found their stride.
ND -12.5

Oklahoma +6 vs. Alabama
This year’s Bama squad is strange. They’re undefeated since laying an egg in open week against FSU, but when you look deeper at that stretch there’s a lot of questions. Tennessee, South Carolina, Missouri, Georgia all outgained Bama on offense when they met. The Tides’ offense hasn’t been the efficient machine you’d expect. The Sooners defense is elite ranking top 10 in nearly every major statistical category.
Oklahoma +6

USF vs. Navy Over 62.5
If the trend is too good to be true, bet the trend. What trend am I talking about? Bettors playing the OVER in games this season are hitting at 66% - the rest are Iowa games jkjk. This brings us to USF where the over is 6-3 and 6-1 in their last seven games. The Bulls have dropped 48 points or more in five of it’s last six outings. USF is averaging 42 ppg and giving up 24ppg. The line opened at 64.5 and has come down to a spot I feel feel comfortable with.

Mississippi St. +7.5 vs. Mizzu
Once Tigers quarterback Beau Pribula went down against Vandy Mizzu’s season took a turn and I’m not sure they can get it back on track. The injury bug bit again when TE Brett Norfleet went down with a separated shoulder. Mississippi St. has put together a solid season and outside of getting dominated by UGa last week they’ve been largely competitive in every contest. Sitting at five wins the Bulldogs need one more to make sure they go bowling this offseason. With games against Mizzu on Saturday and the Egg Bowl against Ole Miss in two weeks. Which game do you think they have circled as a must win?
Mississippi St. +7.5

Virginia vs. Duke -4
The question around Chandler Morris are swirling around. I’d take the money that he will not play, and even if he starts, I am unfortunately sure he finishes. The line opened at 6.5 and dropped to 4 or 4.5 around midweek. I know there are reports that Morris are passing his concussion protocols, but I don’t see a world where he’s operating at close to 100% come game time. Both teams have everything to play for, but I’m just not sure how the Hoos get it together missing the straw that stirs their drink.
Duke -4

[HoozGotNext]

@BDragon

Duke -4

[BDragon]

This is a business not some fans fantasy.

Taking Wake +7 is the only thing that made me happy last weekend.

[5sheff]

Like Dragon, the second weekend of November was good to me. A 6-3 record brings me to 44-40-1 on the year.

I came thisclose to taking Jacksonville State plus the points this week, but reading about their injuries on the OL scared me off. The fact that I’m not taking the game is, of course, good news for Dragon and Gamecock fans everywhere. I was headed the other way on the Bama game since they are 10-2 ATS at home in the DeBoer era, but ultimately passed on that one. I like the Mississippi St. pick and [gag] Duke.

Big slate of games this week. I started off with two mid-week games with mixed success

Central Michigan -2 vs. Buffalo - Central Michigan is 7-2 ATS as home team over last two years, 3-0 after a bye. In fact, the entire top half of the MAC this year has very strong home/road tendencies. The 7 teams leading the MAC conference are a combined 27-5 straight up at home and 9-24 away from home. Buffalo is the one exception to the rule, being 2-3 at home and 3-1 on the road. Nevertheless, I’ll take the home-standing Chippewas minus the small number. [Winner]

Troy +11.5 vs. Old Dominion - Unlike the top MAC teams, Troy’s ATS splits are not dependent on playing at home. Since 2022, Troy is 12-13 ATS as a home team, 18-4 ATS on the road. Just over the past two years, they are 7-3 ATS as away team, 6-3 as away underdog. Meanwhile, ODU is 4-6 ATS as home team, 2-4 as home favorite. [oh, good grief! what kind of effort was that?!? LOSER]

Missouri St. -4.5 vs. UTEP - There is very little to recommend betting on this game, much less taking the Missouri St. Bears. The trends are meh. Statistically, there isn’t much there. At least UTEP is great on third down, tackles for loss, and sacking the QB. Yet, Missouri St. is 6-3 SU and 6-3 ATS, while UTEP is 2-7 overall and 3-6 ATS. Sometimes winners just find ways to win and UTEP … doesn’t. Missouri St. has held 8 straight foes under 30 points and UTEPs woeful offense should be number nine.

Cincinnati -6 vs. Arizona - Cincinnati got embarrassed on November 1st by a strong Utah team. They have had two weeks to lick their wounds and get ready for Arizona. They will be emotionally ready for a team that, over last two years, is 2-6 ATS on the road, 1-5 as road underdog, and 0-3 with rest disadvantage.

Texas St. vs. Southern Miss, over 65, and Southern Miss -3 - Southern Miss is averaging 42 points per game at home this year, while Texas State is surrendering 37 points per game on the road (39 ppg overall). The total on the last four Texas State games has gone over 71. I’ll hedge my bet with a Southern Miss cover as they are 4-1 ATS this year at home, 3-0 as a favorite. Texas St. hasn’t covered any of its last seven games.

Coastal Carolina +3.5 vs. Georgia Southern - Georgia Southern is 7-1-2 ATS as a home team over last two years, 4-1-1 as home favorite, 8-4-1 in conference games. Sounds good, but they are also last in nation in rushing defense. And ever since Samari Collier took over at QB for Coastal, the Chanticleers are 4-0 and averaging 266 yards per game rushing. I’ll take a confident Coastal team to keep it rolling. I think they win outright, but I’ll take the 3.5 points.

Delaware -9.5 vs. Sam Houston St. - I just can’t let it go. I can’t believe Oregon St. beat Washington St. a few weeks ago. Last week Oregon St. went out and lost to Sam Houston St. Sam Houston! What humiliation! I should bet against Oregon St. just on principle. But I’ll pick Sam Houston to return to form instead. The Bearkats convert only 22% of its third downs and score on only 54% of their red zone opportunities. They also allow their opponents to complete a whopping 72% of their passes. Good news for a Delaware team that favors air travel.

Miami -15 vs. NC State - I don’t trust Carson Beck against good defenses, but he should be able to handle NC State. The Wolfpack have allowed an average of 391 yards passing over the last three games, are bottom 15 in the nation for sacking the QB, and allow opponents to convert 47% of third downs. Miami doesn’t have much of a home field advantage these days, but they are still on the periphery of the CFP and know they need a strong showing to remind voters that they are a quality team.

West Virginia +11.5 vs. Arizona St., and under 47 - West Virginia has found new life this year since Scotty Fox took over at QB. After a four game losing streak where they averaged 15 points per game, Fox took over for the last three games and they have responded with a 2-1 record and 30 points per game. They won’t hit that level against Arizona St., but the Sun Devil offense has sputtered most of the year anyway, and they will be missing both Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson. In a low scoring game, I’ll take almost a dozen points.

Nearly picked:

Jacksonville St. +3 vs. Kennesaw St.

Notre Dame vs. Pitt, over 54

Utah -8 vs. Baylor

[BDragon]

I really like the Cinci pick.

That ND Pitt over looks great too.

[HoozGotNext]

What the heck happened to South Carolina….they were up 30-3 or some shit.

[BDragon]

That was one of the craziest comebacks.

SC bit twice this season

[fivesheff]

4-7 on the week. Gave back what I gained last week. 48-47-1 for the year.

[zblakey]

Teams that are down by 27 points in the SEC are one in 289 since 04. Not that they were supposed to win but Beamer may be a dead man walking

[BDragon]

4-4 on the week. Huge 4th quarters from Mizzu and UGA blew open close games and killed my dogs. And I’m more than happy to take the L with the Duke pick

54-50