Last Week 4-4
Overall 64-50-2
Somehow managed to get to .500 last week thanks to the Hoos dominance of Duke. Now we reach the bittersweet part of the college football season. The final week, I always get a little sad. The past three months have flown by and hopefully if you’ve stuck with the Dragon for the entire trip you’ve made a few dollars I know I have. Now can I finish what I started. This week will be a bit of an experiment, with multiple big games already taking place and my mind a bit clouded from watching them. But that’s not going to scare me away from making some picks.
Iowa vs. Nebraska Under 25.5
I talked about this one over in @fivesheff Black Friday picks and it hit. I was eager to see if I could ride Iowa to five consecutive unders and they delivered in glorious fashion.
Under 25.5
Utah -20.5 vs. Colorado Over 47
Colorado is a complete train wreck. I don’t know any other way to state it. The free fall this team is facing is epic. Shout out to my guy @buzby for holding receipts on his Buffs take, he earned them. Going into the year my question was how good of a coach is Coach Prime? Can he manage the X’s and O’s to lead a P5 program. What happens to the guy who believes talent means more than culture watches his talent get beat down week after week? The Buffs have lost five in a row and now they get a Utah team that is coming off an embarrassing loss. Last time the Utes dropped an embarrassing game they responded by beating ASU 55-3. The Buffs enter the game with an offensive coordinator on his second game and Shedeur Sanders on the sideline. Colorado struggles with physicality and no one in the Pac 12 is more physical than the Utes.
Utah -20.5 Over 47
Michigan vs. Ohio State Under 46.5
The Game. This one is always one of college football’s most bitter rivalries and one that has withstood the test of time. Michigan has won two consecutive games in the rivalry and enter the game as the favorite for the first time in seven years. History says this game is high scoring. But I’m bucking that trend this year. Despite having a Heisman Trophy candidate at receiver, the OSU offense is MID. Kyle McCord does not strike fear in me. The one time he faced a top caliber defense he scored 17 points against ND and had Al Golden put 11 players on the field in the redzone they likely lose that game. The Wolverines defense is stacked, NFL level talent at every level that can scheme and slow down Marvin Harrison Jr. In the last two weeks Michigan has run the ball about 100 times and Blake Corum is pacing the unit as the only FBS player to score in every game this season. An interesting wrinkle is for as good as the Michigan Oline is with the run, they are not great in pass protection. After PSU got on UofM QB J.J. McCarthy early in their game, the Wolverines packed it in and ran the ball 30 times in the second half. Tight fought game that should be fun but give me the under.
Under 46.5
SMU -19.5 vs Navy Over 45.5
SMU runs the non P5. At 9-2 the only losses the Mustangs have taken on the season are to Oklahoma and TCU. Against the non P5, they are averaging 46 ppg. On the line for the Mustangs is a possible invite to a New Years Bowl Game. With Tulane and UTSA both undefeated in AAC, SMU must win on Saturday to keep hope alive. I like the Mustangs to handle the 19, and I tossed in the Over for a little extra sweat.
SMU -19.5 Over 45.5
Hawaii +5.5 vs. Colorado St.
It’s fitting that I started the season in Week 0 with a Hawaii game and here I am wrapping things up with the Warriors on a 11pm kick. This is an interesting one and really jumps out at me for one major reason the Rams inability to win on the road. You have to go back to September 23 against Middle Tennessee St for the last time CSU picked up a road win. That’s the sort of thing that jumps out to me when your team has to hit the road to Maui on Thanksgiving week.
Hawaii +5.5
Virginia +2.5 vs. Virginia Tech Under 53
It’s been a rollercoaster of a season for the Hoos. Everyone here knows what I’m talking about. But I honestly believe this game is far better than the record shows. I don’t believe in moral victories but that means something. I also know the culture and emotions surround this group and there is no doubt the understand the mission at hand when the walk into Scott Stadium tomorrow. The Hokies need a win to get bowl eligible which would be a major win for that group. Va. Tech has feasted on bad ACC teams this season but that ends on Saturday. The total is very wonky on this one for me both teams have the ability to put up points, but I like this one to remain tight throughout and be a competitive moderate scoring affair. There was a time when a 53 total meant something.
Virginia +2.5 Under 53
