Last Week 4-5
Overall 54-49
Here we are final weeks of the season and I am hanging onto a winning record by the slimmest of margins. Add to it Iām on the road this weekend and playing road games is never easy. But I never take the easy path to do anything.
As always Dragonās College Football Picks are brought to you by Dragonās Lair Training- Breathe Fire, Courtyard Marriott official hotel sponsor of all Dragons, and weekends in Godās great country Charlottesville Va.
Ole Miss vs. Florida OVER 55
No surprise that Ole Miss puts up points and they rack up yardage. The Rebels currently average 513 yards ppg and 37 points, both are in the top 25 nationally. Ole Miss also plays at the eight fastest pace in the country averaging 79 players per game. All of this spells trouble for a Florida team thatās coming off a big win last week in the Swamp against LSU. The Gators are giving up are giving up 422 ypg. Thatās not going to get it done against one of the most lethal attacks in the nation. I do think Florida can do their part to put up points on offense and help reach the over.
Over 55
TCU -10.5 vs. Arizona
The Horned Frogs have put together a decent season, even though it has flown under the radar. Quarterback Josh Hoover has put up monster stats for TCU this year and led a hire powered offense. Arizona has struggled on the road recently giving up 51 and 41 points the last two times theyāve ventured outside of Tucson.
TCU -10.5
Kentucky +20 vs. Texas
Iām going out on a limb for this one and am going to need some help, but I think I might just be able to pull it off. The Longhorns are a week away from a date with rival Texas A&M, not only are they renewing their rivalry the SEC West title will be on the line. But before we jump to next week, Texas has a game against a somewhat pesky Kentucky team. Yes, nothing about the Wildcats record or 15th ranking in the SEC screams pesky but Stoopsā teams play their best against the best opponents. Kentucky has covered against Ole Miss, Tennessee and Georgia this season.
Kentucky +20
Colorado vs. Kansas OVER 59.5
I believe this is three weeks in a row Iāve jumped in with Colorado and itās paid off each time. The story with the Buff is simple if Shedeur gets time in the pocket he will pick you apart and Colorado will put up points. Colorado has scored 34 or more points in all but one of their conference games this season. Kansas does not get after the quarterback at an impressive rate. They are 91st in pass rush and 74th in pressure rate. Iām expecting a few more plays for the highlight reel out of this one.
Over 59.5
Michigan -10.5 vs Northwestern OVER 36.5
Michigan has been bad this year, their offense is awful, but they are not this bad that they are only getting 10.5 against a 4-6 Northwestern team. What I like here is the Wolverines are coming off a bye week and have had time to put together a gameplan. We know they will pound the rock for 4 quarters and that persistent rushing attack will breakdown the Northwestern defense. This is also a great opportunity for the Michigan defense to feast on a Northwestern offense ranked 129 in points per drive. This will set the Wolverines up with favorable field position.
Michigan -10.5 Over 36.5
App State +7.5 vs. James Madison
James Madison does not play well on the road. In Harrisonburg the Dukes defense gives up 9 points per game, when they hit the road that number jumps to 28 ppg. App State features a rushing attack that has a three-headed monster with Ahmani Marshall, Kayne Roberts, and Anderson Castle. Another issue JMU has dealt with this season is protecting quarterback Alonza Barnett III who has been sacked 28 times already this season. The App State defense is exceptional at getting after the quarterback racking up the eight most sacks in the nation.
App State +7.5
Virginia vs. SMU Over 56
Well here we are, season on the line, final home game, everything to play for and a Mustang team marching their way to a ACC Championship and a CFP. And if AC is the man under center on Saturday I have no faith. The SMU defense has shown vulnerability when playing accurate quarterbacks, thatās not AC. They have also struggled with mobile QBs which could be AC, but the Hoos cannot bank on having him lead the rushing attack for four quarters. Defensively the SMU offense scares me. Kevin Jennings took over the starting job early in the season and never looked back. He is a dual threat athlete who will test the edge of the Virginia defense and if he finds a gap he will take off. Iām hoping for points and I do not care who scores them.
Over 56
