🏈 🎰 Dragon's College Football Picks Week 13 Season 6

[BDragon]

Last Week 4-4
Overall 54-50

Broke even last week in regards to picks, the money was slightly up which is nice. Most importantly I still have a lot to play for in these final two weeks if I want to keep my streak of finishing above .500 alive. Hopefully a week without the distraction of the Hoos means I can make these picks with clarity.

As always Dragon’s College Football Picks are brough to you by Dragon’s Lair Training, Tall Pines Gifts and bacon double cheeseburgers.

Georgia Tech -vs Pitt Under 61.5
Both of these teams are in full playoff mode needing to win to keep their hopes of an ACC Championship game appearance and a CFP birth alive. The game was announced a sellout on Thursday evening and the Flatts will be hoping on Saturday. The storyline for this game will be who controls the tempo. The Panthers average over 73 plays per game – one of the highest marks in the country – however, they only gain 5.5 yards per play, ranking them in the bottom off of ypp nationally. Pitt is the equivalent of a volume shooter on offense. They need reps, rhythm and time to score. That’s a lot of required necessities especially when you need all three on the road against a team that controls pace the way Georgia Tech does. Georgia Tech forces opponents into slower fights by running the ball well and winning possession. Quarterback Haynes King is averaging 16 carries a game himself. The Yellow Jackets are converting 53% of their third down attempts and they convert on 94% of their Red Zone attempts. Limiting opponents possessions is also GT’s best defense for slowing down the Panthers passing attack.
Under 61.5

Oregon -9.5 vs. USC
Lincoln Riley 's teams are not great on the road and are even worst when they are a dog. USC has lost eight straight as a road dog, they are 0-5 under Lincoln Riley as a road dog, in the last 21 games as a road dog they’ve only once two of them outright while going 5-16 ATS… the trends are screaming at me here. The trends play out on the field as well where USC their ppg drops from 45 to 27 on the road, points allowed increased 19-25. Perhaps scariest is the drop in production from Quarterback Jayden Maivia who’s completion percentage drops from 75% at home to 57% on the road. I’m jumping in now before the line crawls up to double digits which I think it will be at by kickoff.
Oregon -9.5

Iowa -16.5 vs. Michigan State
The Michigan State offense is in trouble, they only managed 10 points against Penn St. while coming off a bye last week. Compounding problems for the Spartans they may have to trot out freshman quarterback Alessio Milivojevic for his first career start in Iowa City against a fired up Iowa Hawkeyes defense. This has Iowa throttling written all over it.
Iowa -16.5

Cal team over 24.5 vs. Stanford Over 47.5
I was nervous when I talked myself into this one and I remain nervous with the bet placed. My concern is can Stanford show up enough to give me 15 points? The smart play would be Cal team over 24.5 and I’ll make a modest wager on that just to keep things safe. Stanford has given up 50 red zone trips, third-most in the FBS. That’s terrible, a unit that doesn’t tackle well, is somehow worst in coverage (121st in coverage), and does not get off the field on third down. Cal will do their part to get to their season average of 25ppg but I need to them put in some extra so we can reach the total over.
Cal Team over 24.5, Total over 47.5

BYU vs. Cincinnati Over 54.5
BYU nation is excited and rightfully so with the Cougars in the running for a CFP spot. The Cougars are a team that finds way to win games. The over is in play here because of the Bearcats defense. Cincinnati is giving up just over 25 ppg, opponents are averaging over 410 ypg and they are converting 40% of their third downs against the Bearcats. UC doesn’t stop the run and they don’t generate a pass rush. BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier will have time to work his progressions and guide the BYU offense up and down the field all night in Clifton Oh.
Over 54.5

Air Force +3.5 vs. New Mexico
Air Force hasn’t been great this year and now they are missing their quarterback. So logically I am all in on the Fly Guys on Saturday. Starting QB Liam Szarka is out and they are trotting out fullback Kemper Hodges to take snaps under center. I expect this to be full on throwback to the Single Wing offenses we saw dominate HS school football in the 80’s and I’m here for it.
Air Force +3.5

Ohio State vs. Rutgers Under 55
The Buckeyes with have all their starters on the bench coming out the half. And even with that I am nervous about squeaking in on the under.

[5sheff]

4-7 last week for me. 48-47-1 on the season. Hoping for a couple of nice weeks to end the season with a respectable percentage. I got off to a good start on Tuesday with one of the MAC games going my way.

I thought about Air Force, but the QB situation scared me off. Same with Louisiana Tech against Liberty. I wanted to take the over on the Pitt-Georgia Tech game, but couldn’t justify going over 60. And frankly, I just need to lay off the Totals altogether - they haven’t been good to me.

Anyway - here’s what I’ve got this week:

Akron +3 vs. Bowling Green - The Zips have shown some life offensively of late, and Bowling Green has been a disaster ever since their miracle 21-point comeback to beat Toledo in week 6. In the last two years, Bowling Green is 4-10 ATS in conference games, and 2-7 ATS as a home favorite. Give me Akron +3 [Winner]

Washington St. +14 vs. JMU – Despite playing several strong offensive teams this year, the only games Washington State has lost by 14 points this year were early in the season against North Texas and Washington when turnovers sent the Cougars into a death spiral. This is a step up in weight class for JMU who hasn’t faced a Power 4-ish team all year except for their 14 point loss to Louisville back on September 5^th.

Miami -18 vs. Va. Tech - The Hokies are channeling their inner-Narduzzi and don’t care if they lose this one by 100 so long as they somehow, someway win on Thanksgiving weekend. Miami is still looking for style points in their Quixotic attempt to get an at-large bid to the playoffs.

Kentucky +9 vs. Vanderbilt – The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 head-to-head meetings between these two teams. Kentucky’s offense has looked more potent lately, surpassing 30 points against Tennessee and Florida. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt’s defense looked leaky against Texas and Auburn, and they have been the Cardiac Commodores against Missouri, Texas, and Auburn. I like Kentucky to keep it close.

Arizona St. -7 vs. Colorado - I am fading Colorado, which looks like they no longer have the will to contest the run game. The Buffaloes have been better at home, but they are getting consistently gashed on the ground. Even throwing out the 422 rushing yards they gave up to Utah, they are surrendering an average of 202 rushing yards per game over their last 4. With Sun Devil QB Sam Leavitt out for the year, Arizona State is now a rushing team with a back-up QB that ran for 228 against Iowa St.

Hawaii +3 vs. UNLV – I think the wrong team is favored in this one. Hawaii is stronger defensively and still has the offensive firepower to score with UNLV. Hawaii almost always covers the spread at home, but is only mediocre on the road. Even so, I like them to get after the QB and encourage AC to revert to his turnover-prone days at Virginia.

East Carolina -2.5 vs. UTSA - UTSA has fared poorly against teams with a direction in their name, losing 55-17 to North Texas and 55-23 to South Florida. So naturally East Carolina should have their way with the Roadrunners, right??!? Granted, UTSA performs much better at home than on the road, but I don’t think it will matter. The Pirates are 3-0-1 ATS while away from home this year are simply the better team, with more offensive punch and a defense that is difficult to score against (#5 in red zone scoring percentage).

Missouri St. vs. Kennesaw St., under 55.5 – (I picked this and wrote it when it was 57.5). Kennesaw St. scores an average of 26 points per game and surrenders 24 - a total of 50. Missouri St. scores an average of 22 points per game and surrenders 27 - a total of 49. So where is this total of 57.5 coming from?? Both teams have respectable middle-of-the-pack defensive statistics. Neither one is an offensive powerhouse. Missouri St. has hit the under 8 times out of 10 games, and (aside from USC putting up 73 in week 1) last week was the only game they cleared 57 points for the total. Kennesaw has hit the under 6 times out of 10, cleared 57 points twice (ignoring the Indiana blowout) and neither of them were at home. Give me the under.

Texas -9 vs. Arkansas – Another lovely statistical nugget from VSIN: ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late. Since November of 2021 they are 61-23 SU & 52-31-1 ATS (62.7%) in their next game. Texas didn’t play a home game in all of October. They came back to Austin and dominated Vanderbilt until the last several minutes. I think the offense gets right here as they warm up for A&M.

Temple +9 vs. Tulane – Temple has a senior QB with a 22-1 TD-Int ration that can exploit Tulane’s leaky pass defense. Over the past two years Temple is 8-3 ATS at home and 10-2 ATS after a loss.

USC vs. Oregon, under 59.5 – Oregon’s defense is allowing a nation-best 4.9 yards per pass, which means they are limiting big plays through the air. Not one of their opponents has scored more than 30 points this year, and I don’t see USC reaching that target. So the question is whether the Ducks will put up big offensive numbers at home. I don’t see it. USC is no slouch on defense either, surrendering only 344 yards and 21 points per game. Oregon likes to run the ball and eat the clock. I’ll take the under.

Nearly Picked:

La. Tech +1 vs. Liberty – I got scared off by La Tech starting their 3^rd string QB

Nebraska +8 vs. Penn St.

Ohio State -32 vs. Rutgers – I’m allegedly trying to pick winners against the spread and yet I haven’t picked the best team in the country once. Mental note: I need to pick fewer Coastal Carolina games and more Ohio State games…but maybe not this week with Michigan on the horizon.

[BDragon]

I was looking at that Miami game hard. I saw it at 17.5 and I wanted to jump in. My superstition is the only thing that kept me off it.

Your Ohio State pick has me jumping in on the Under 55.

Very smart call on the ASU pick at well. I think the entire Buffs program is ready to fold things up.

[jazznutUVA]

Still scared of the parlay…

[BDragon]

Sure throw $20 on whatever the parlay was. I don’t even remember now.

[BDragon]

Watching OSU squeeze the life out of Rutgers and hoping no one tries to be a hero and blow my under

[BDragon]

42-9 with 4mins to go… O/U is 55 Rutgers has the ball.

[Jwhelan33]

Nelson Co views @BDragon

[BDragon]

Love it brother. Enjoy

[BDragon]

Hmm flyboys down 17 on the firsthalf maybe I shouldn’t have bet on the team letting their FB play QB

[Richan34]

[BDragon]

3-6 on the week brutal and now bellow
57-56 on year playing for everything next week

[fivesheff]

Back to back 4-7 weeks has taken me below .500 for the year. 52-54-1.

At this point in the season, I’m all turned around. The last two weeks I have had several games that weren’t even close.

One week to go.

[BDragon]

I’m in the same boat. Last week I had a couple of major swing and misses which really throws me off when I read a game that wrong.

Final week of the season coming up lot of rivalry games, lot of Friday games Probably locking in early cause of the Friday schedule but looking forward to finishing strong

[fivesheff]

Has anyone had a more Jekyll and Hyde season than Air Force? After the opener against Bucknell, 4 of their next five games had totals over 78 , then each of the next five games had totals under 46.

Anyone have any inside information about this? How did they simultaneously find a defense and lose their offense??

[BDragon]

They started their FB at QB on Saturday injuries destroyed them

[fivesheff]

I knew about the last game with New Mexico, but I’m pretty sure their starting QB played in all the other games. Maybe there are many more injuries outside of QB then I am aware of, but were they all on the offensive side of the ball? It’s probably a matter of opponents mostly. Wyoming and Army are not UNLV and Hawaii in terms of offensive firepower.

On another note, I saw that Cal just fired their head coach. What is the purpose of firing a guy with one game left on the schedule? Is losing to Stanford a fireable offense? Imagine if losing to VT was a fireable offense in Charlottesville.

[BDragon]

Quality of opponent definitely played a major role in AF change of fortunes as well. I feel like I heard their coaching job could be opening as well or at least that was in the rumor mill a while ago.

The Cal firing honestly does not surprise me too me. I recall seeing interviews of GM Ron Rivera during the Cal/VT game and he didn’t exactly give a ringing endorsement of the current staff and that was before the loss. There was a lot of talk about pride in being a Cal Bear and wanting to honor the program’s legacy etc. Nothing too scathing, but definitely the words of a man who was likely thinking bigger.