🏈 🎰 Dragon's College Football Picks Week 14 Season 6

[BDragon]

Last Week 3-6

Season 57-56

Here we are week 14 of the college football season. It’s tough to believe that in 48 hours the regular season will be done. This has been an interesting season, one that looked like it would be full of chaos, has turned into something more predictable. Yet at the same time, I don’t know that we know who’s the dominate team in the NCAA. I have some ideas, but just about everyone still has something to prove.

As always Dragon’s College Football Picks are brought to you by Dragon’s Lair Training, Tall Pines Gifts (get those Christmas orders in by 12/6) and shoutout to my boy Mad Dog Walker who is celebrating his 4th birthday today. Love watching that kid grow up and getting to be his dad.

USC -21.5 vs. UCLA
The SoCal Cup is up for grabs on Saturday night. Fortunately for USC they are coming home to the Coliseum for this one where they are a better team. They throw for more yards, run for more yards, complete more passings, they’re a better team. There was a brief moment where UCLA was a fun story and even cost James Franklin his job when it upset Penn State. Since then, UCLA has come crashing back to reality, the Bruins got cooked by Indiana, lost to Nebraska, got dominated by Ohio State and just lost big to Washington. This is a team that is not playing well in any facet of the game right now, and their quarterback is likely out after getting injured against UW.
USC -21.5

Washington St. -13.5 vs. Oregon St.
Not often I get to run a pick back during the season. A month ago when these two teams met I bet WSU to win and the Beavers pulled the upset winning their first game against an FBS team. So naturally, I’m doubling down on my position and taking the Cougars in this one. I can’t be wrong two times right? I also like that WSU is healthier right now and gets to host the Beavers to end the season. The Cougars are 5-0 at home this year, and with a win they are bowl eligible not bad for a team that spent the year flying across the country every other week just to make a schedule.
Washington State -13.5

Tennessee -2.5 vs. Vanderbilt Over 64.5
I’m declaring it right now the Diego Pavia story is done. He’s feasted against lesser opponents this season, but when matched against legit defenses the numbers drop. I’m also sick of seeing his mama piggyback his 15 mins of fame and making the moment about her instead of celebrating her son. On the field, it’s apparent that Vols head coach Josh Josh Heupel really enjoys putting up big numbers against its in-state rival and a poor Vandy defense should again oblige. Last week against Florida Tennessee wasted no time destroying the Gators in easy fashion. I expect them to do the same to Vandy.
Tennessee -2.5 Over 64.5

Michigan vs. Ohio St. Under 43.5
The over has hit in seven straight meetings in this series played at Michigan, but I’m bucking that trend. Michigan’s only hope is to muck this game up. Their ground game is their only game. It’s not pretty football but it has worked for the Wolverines so far this season. Ohio State’s offense has been great this season, but they’ve battled some injuries they’ve been able to hide by resting guys in blowouts. But we saw cracks against Rutgers last week. This is going to be a throwback game on a windy day in the Big House.
Under 43.5

Ole Miss -7 vs. Mississippi St.
I’m not sure I’ve seen a coach affect a line on a game this much in my life. The Lane Kiffin will he won’t he drama has become beyond annoying at this point of the season, and we are expecting an announcement after today’s game. I’d love to make a bet that the news breaks during the game, but I can’t find those odds. The money is pouring in on Mississippi St. and it’s almost exclusively emotionally driven as bettors are trying to guess the mindset of the Ole Miss players as they navigate yet another unnecessary messy situation. The Bulldogs played their best game of the season against Texas and after dropping that heart breaker they’ve struggled to get back on track.
Ole Miss -7

Georgia vs. Georgia Tech Over 59.5
Georgia Tech saw their ACC Championship and CFP hopes dashed last week at home in the Flatts when Pitt dominated them from top to bottom. The Yellow Jackets are a mess on defense giving up 412, 537 and 583 yards in each of their last three games. You have to go back a month to when they played Syracuse to find a game where they held an opponent under 400 yards of offense. Now the Reck are driving 2 miles from their dorms to take on UGA in the Dome where there will be no homefield advantage. The Dawgs are averaging 37ppg over the last month and Kirby is eager for his squard to flex their muscles against whoever lines up against them. Notching a big number against a ranked opponent will also help UGA’s CFP hopes.
Over 59.5

Virginia -8.5 vs. Virginia Tech
The Hoos are 1-19 in the last 20 against the Hokies, sadly they’ve only been favored in three of those games and they dropped those. Thankfully we are entering a new era of Virginia football. What happened in the past does not apply today. This is the most complete team the Hoos have had in that 20 year run. The bye week has allowed for several Hoos to get healthy and get back up to speed. The last time we saw Virginia the laid the wood to Duke in impressive fashion.

[HoozGotNext]

@BDragon

Virginia -8.5

[fivesheff]

4-7 weeks has taken me below .500 for the year. 52-54-1.

I think I agree with you about Tennessee, but I was oh so wrong about Vanderbilt last week, I’m keeping an open mind about that game. I will be watching it hoping the Commodores can make the obnoxious Vol fans around here so sad. I like Ole Miss and don’t think the Kiffin thing will be a large distraction - certainly not more than those stupid cowbells. I thought all week that I would surely pick the Hokies and the points (I mean I love citing trends, right?), but ultimately decided to pass. Hedging my hopes by picking the gobblers won’t make me feel any better if we lose. I’m all-in emotionally for tomorrow!

Tulsa -8.5 vs. UAB - Tulsa is at home with a modest 2-game win streak, while UAB is trying to gather itself and focus on football after a UAB offensive lineman stabbed two of his teammates prior to last week’s game against South Florida. Tulsa has covered 4 of its last 5 and UAB has failed to cover their last four.

Louisiana -8.5 vs. La. Monroe - Monroe hasn’t stayed within 12 point of anybody since September. Louisiana has won 9 of the last 11 meetings and each of the last two by 14 points or more. I haven’t been able to figure out why the line has been dropping, but I’ll take it.

Ohio St. -9.5 vs. Michigan - I said last week that I needed to pick Ohio State more often, and here is where I do it. Cold weather, wind, Ohio State’s defense: Buckeyes go on the naughty list after this one.

San Diego St. -1.5 vs. New Mexico - San Diego St. has won the last four games played at Albuquerque and 9 of the last 10 against New Mexico.

Florida St. pick vs. Florida - The Seminoles can still be bowl eligible with a win and Florida hasn’t won since they axed Napier. I’ll take Florida State straight up.

Iowa St. vs. Oklahoma St., under 46.5 - The Cowboys’ defense has come around the last couple of weeks, surrendering just 14 to Kansas State and 17 to UCF. Iowa State is only averaging 25 points per game and is bottom half in red zone scoring.

Texas A&M vs. Texas, over 52.5

Penn St. -13.5 vs. Rutgers - Rutgers has not fared well against the higher quality teams this year, losing by multiple scores to Washington, Oregon, Illinois, and Ohio State. Penn State is having a down year, but is still a very talented team that has apparently decided that this is not a lost season after all. They are playing for a bowl berth and have won 17 straight matchups against Rutgers.

Wake Forest +1.5 vs. Duke - Over the last two years, Wake Forest is 6-2-1 ATS on the road, and 4-2 as an away underdog. We just saw Virginia’s offense stymie the Duke attack. I’m looking for something similar here.

Utah St. +3 vs. Boise St. - Utah State is 9-2 ATS this year and 5-0 ATS at home. They are 4-1 as a home underdog over the past two seasons.

Central Michigan +10.5 vs. Toledo - As I have mentioned before, the Force is strong with the home teams in the MAC. Central Michigan is 4-0 ATS at home this year, and 3-0 as a home underdog over the last two years. Toledo is 1-7 as an away favorite over the last two years.

[BDragon]

The way the line dropped no way I could skip it.

@5sheff really liking your picks this week. PSU is great value, Florida no longer cares about football last week proved that. OSU feels good to cover as well I took a long look at Michigan team total under 16.5.

[BDragon]

Lane gets me the cover to start the weekend

[Hoohoohoo]

I assume Oklahoma loss guarantees they are on the outside looking in. Somehow the committee will reward another SEC team.

[fivesheff]

3-8 this week, and I’m thankful that the season is over! lol

[BDragon]

5-3 on the weekend
Glad i was able to grind out a solid week.
62-59 on the year Ill take it.

[Hooandtrue]

Has anyone ever punted from the 29!!?!?!