Last Week 7-2
Here we go! Last week was a cracker as my friends the other side of the pond would say. 7-2 is a record and an accomplishment I will brag about all season. Let’s keep this momentum going and get this new house built.
Mississippi St. +9.5 vs. LSU
LSU looked awful in the opening week against FSU. The team died on the field in the second half and yes FSU is good, but they lit up the LSU defense like a Christmas tree. Last week the Tigers beat up on Grambling 72-10 but I don’t believe they’ve fixed their defense just yet. The Bulldogs have experience at QB with Will Rogers and they have a very good rushing attack that can control the line of scrimmage. More importantly the Miss. St. defense gives up over 100 yards less per game than LSU. If you can tease this up to +10 jump on it, but I think the Bulldogs can cover the 9.5.
Mississippi St. +9.5
Duke -18.5 vs. Northwestern Over 48.5
Can’t believe this is actually a game I care about rather than being the Nerd Bowl 2023. The Blue Devils are good and they have a dynamic offense led by Riley Leonard. Duke flexed their muscle against Lafayette last week dropping 42 points and they will be more than capable to do it again against Northwestern. Duke also have a opportunistic defense that forced two turnovers against Clemson and will smother Northwestern. Toss in the fact that Duke has covered ATS the last four times they played Northwester and is 19-8 ATS as a double digit favorite since 2012. I also like the over here. I’m also selfishly hoping for a good Duke team to come to Scott in November when I’m in the house.
Duke -18.5 vs. Northwestern Over 48.5
Ohio +3 vs. Iowa St.
Both of these teams are awful on offense. Iowa St. has 540 yards of offense this season! (that’s 2 games combined). Now the Cyclones go on the road to for some sweet MACtion. The Ohio Bobcats have Kurtis Rourke back for a second game after getting banged up early and I think he continues to progress into his role. This is going to be a rock fight in Athens so you may want to hit the Par 3 they have on campus for the first half and check in at halftime.
Florida +6.5 vs. Tennessee
Florida is a home dog for this one and I like it. I also am seeing a lot of people hammering this line and hopefully you can catch it before the line drops. It feels like the Vols are still riding high on the hype they had from last season and yes that was a good team but even they got boat raced by the Gamecocks at the end of the year. This year’s Vols are talented but while most on this board think of the final score of the opener, I think about the first half where they looked pedestrian against a Virginia defense that gave up 36 points to JMU. This is the first proper road game for Tennessee and it’s a hostile environment with a Gators team that knows it needs to grab a big win to keep pace in the SEC.
Texas A&M vs. Louisiana-Monroe Over 53.5
The Aggies got worked last week by the Canes. Jimbo Fisher is a fraud hopefully the rest of America is onto this. That said, I do think A&M has a strong bounce back this week. These are the games that Jimbo builds his legacy on beating up on lesser teams. I think the Aggies defense will be much better and keep ULM in check, but I also think Petrino will release the hounds on offense to show why he’s getting that big check.
Western Michigan +28.5 vs. Iowa
The Iowa offense is sustainable this season. They are averaging 22ppg through their first two games. That’s no minor miracle for this program. Transfer QB Cade McNamra is driving the Hawkeyes up and down the field to the tune of 315 yards and 2 TDs… Okay I’m done, this is a slightly upgraded version of Iowa but the reality is scoring points in bunches just isn’t their thing. The line opened at 28.5 and it’s dropping, I’ve seen it as low as 26, so jump on it while you can.
Western Michigan +28.5
Virginia vs. Maryland Over 47
Friday night football under the lights in College Park Md… I hate that place. I don’t need to go in depth about the kick in the teeth and the junk that four hour marathon game was last week. The Hoos have a ton to work through bouncing back from that heartache and establishing who will be the QB1 tonight. Muskett gets the start, but how healthy he is and how much of a leash does he get is yet to be seen. The Terps are 2-0 but they have beat up on weak opponents and have not looked explosive in the process, giving up 20 points to Charlotte last weekend. I don’t know what it is about this Hoos team, but I do like them they play hard and I do think the offense is capable of getting points if they sling it around and look to move the pocket. Virginia has 2 QBs who are capable of leading the charge and putting points on the board.