Last Week 6-2
Overall 12-4
Another good week in the books for the Dragon. Special shout out to @JBHoo who appears to be gunning for my job after stringing together another successful week. Here at the Dragonās Lair, I am back in the lab trying to find some good picks. Itās week 3 of the college football season and there are not a lot of marque matchups. But thatās why we gamble anything to make things interesting.
As always thanks to my sponsors; Dragonās Lair Training, Ray Rayās Lube Shop, and Cherry Ave. Pagers.
Notre Dame vs. Purdue Under 47
Notre Dame was the talk of the college football world last week and Iām not here to pick apart the corpse of Fighting Irish, I am here for the āI told you soā crowd when it comes to ND transfer Riley Leonard. In his first two games as Notre Dameās quarterback the Irish have failed to score more than 23 points in either game. The offensive failures are not all his fault, the ND O-Line is awful. Leonard has been on under pressure when dropping back, and heās gone 3-of-15 when attempting a pass under pressure. The rushing attack is no better, take away a 34 yard run from Jeremiyah Love and the Irish only put up 89 yards on the ground against NIU. Purdue has a suspect passing defense but they have proven to be stout against the run. Turning ND into a one dimensional threat is not out of the question. This one just feels like an old school slugfest which is why I like the under.
Under 47
Kennesaw State +19.5 vs. San Jose State
These are big time games yāall come here for right? Last week I rolled with the Spartans against @jazznutUVA Flyboys and it paid off, mainly because Air Force is a disaster on offense. Kennesaw State has plenty of their own issues on offense, but Coach Niumatulolo doesnāt know their playbook like he did when the Spartans played Air Force. The Owls looked competent in week 1 against UTSA and I think they get back on track this week after the blow out lost last week. Plus 19.5 is a big number for SJSU.
Kennesaw State +19.5
Washington -4.5 vs. Washington St.
The Apple Cup in September? Oh that conference alignment is so crazy. Two bitter rivals are meeting early this year with the pride of the PAC-2 on the line. If feels like a lifetime ago since the Huskies played for the national championship, but I give credit to Washington for quickly rebuilding under first year head coach Jedd Fisch. The Huskies picked up solid wins again Weber State and Eastern Michigan to start the season. More importantly, Washington has looked like a cohesive unit in those games, not an easy task for a new staff and overhauled roster. Wazzu gave and took it away last week when they got me the cover but fell woefully short on the over. The Cougars discovered a running attack last week by running quarterback John Mateer. This will help balance one of the most unbalanced offenses in the country. I expect Wazzu to be a tough out, but with the line dropping, I can see them being feisty and still lose.
Washington -4.5
Oregon -16.5 vs. Oregon St. Over 49.5
Staying in the PAC-2, letās dive into another rivalry game with this yearās version of the Civil War. I love this game as a breakout opportunity for a Ducks squad that got off to a slow start but is poised for something big. Last week during a 37-34 nail biter, Oregon made some shifts on their offensive line and the moves paid off. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel was able to stay upright in the pocket and the Ducks rediscovered their running game. Building on that momentum, I expect Oregon to start fast and build a big early lead. The Beavers are a run first team, rushing for 109 attempts to just 41 pass attempts on the season. They do not want to pay catch up against an Oregon defensive line that knows how to get after the quarterback. Oregon shows up and shows out.
Oregon -16.5 Over 49.5
Alabama vs. Wisconsin Under 49
Thereās not much I like about this game, but I want a reason to be invested in it, so here we go. Phil Longo came to Wisconsin to modernize their offense, through two games this season the Badgers are averaging 5.2 yards per play and have five plays good for more than 20 yards. This doesnāt look like the Badger offense of old, but it plays like the Badger offense of old. Alabama is the best defense Wisconsin has played all year and they should not have an issue bottling up the wannabe pass happy attack. The Crimson Tide has done well to protect their quarterback running the ball 89 times so far this season. This made for a slow start last week before Bama pulled away late. I think this one starts with Alabama slow plays things on the road running the ball and killing clock while Wisconsin takes a similar tactic by attempting the control clock.
Under 49.
Virginia +2.5 vs. Maryland Over 57
Here we are, the Hoos renew their rivalry with the Terps and itās a massive game. Last week, I felt like a program hung in the balance depending on the outcome, this week is not as drastic, but a win could be the beginning of something special. On the field, itās tough to get a read on this yearās Virginia team, they look like world beaters, and then they look like the Hoos of old, sometimes on the same drive. Watching Maryland last week against Michigan State, and I saw skill players that worry me. The Terps can sling the ball around and they have backs that can get on the edge and take advantage of space. I loved how the Hoos got after the quarterback last week. I know a lot has been said about the Dline not generating pressure, but Iām okay with the defense being blitz happy as long as they are getting home which they will do on Saturday night. Offensively, AC has to stay in his lane. Really that could be said about the whole offense, Iād love to see the rushing attack get more north south and less probing of the edges. Iād go as far as making more calls for runs attacking the line of scrimmage and move away from the zone read style attack. At the end of think the Good guys win this one, which gives them the cover, and I expect points to be scored.
Hoos +2.5 Over 57
