Last Week 5-4
Overall 19-12
A respectable 5-4 last week lands the Dragon at 19-12 on the season not too shabby. We are entering Week 4 of the college football season and as the matchups become more intense and teams get more film on one another the lines are getting tighter and it’s time for the Dragon to shine. So if you’re still crying over some teenager named Kon do what any sensible human would do and bet yourself happy.
Texas A&M -8.5 vs. Auburn
Jimbo Fisher has put Hard Times on the Aggies and their fans in his tenure in College Station. But lucky Aggie nation there is another SEC team that routinely disappoints their fanbase and they are coming to town for a noon kickoff on Saturday. Auburn found themselves in a rock fight last time they went on the road this season and that was against Cal, winning 14-10. The Tigers turned the ball over 4 times and QB Payton Thorne went 9/14 for 94 yards (it can get worst Hoo fans). I believe Texas A&M got themselves back on track last week against UL Monroe after getting blindsided by a much improved Miami team.
Texas A&M -8.5
Baylor vs. Texas Over 48.5
Texas was caught sleeping at the wheel last week against Wyoming. Call it the hangover affect of knocking off Bama. But they survived and I expect them to be focused as they return to Big 12 play and chase a conference championship. The Baylor defense gave up 42 in an opening week lost to Texas State and an injury plagued Utah hung 20 on them. Last week they held Long Island to 7 points take that for what it’s worth. I expect Longhorn QB Quinn Ewers to have a field day and hang some points and Baylor will do enough to cover their end of the deal.
Over 48.5
FSU - 2 vs. Clemson
This one is for your ACC Championship most likely. It also boast some interesting stats. Last time the Tigers were dogs at home? 2016 against Lamar Jackson and UofL. This is only the sixth time a team ranked in the top 5 in the AP has been favored by a FG or less against an unranked team. But as we know this is not your typical unranked team or your typical home field advantage. However, Dabo’s boys have struggled against good competition since their last title run. 2-8 against teams that finished ranked since 2020 to be exact. I know the Tigers will be up for this one, but it’s a noon game which will negate some of that homefield advantage and I don’t believe they have cleaned up their sloppy play. Meanwhile FSU is on a mission and after a scare in Boston last week, they will want to flex their muscles on the road.
FSU -2
Oklahoma State -3.5 vs. Iowa State
I hammered ISU last week against Ohio and I am back to do it again this week with the Gundy Warriors wielding the hammer this time. The Iowa State offense is anemic their defense is okay but nothing special. Gundy and the Cowboys are a long way from what they were a few seasons ago and and frankly have been that way since he abandoned the Air Raid offense, maybe he’s spending too much time hunting rattlesnakes. What I do know is Okie State has won 22 of the last 28 when they are favored or dogs by 4 points or less and they have gone 19-6-3 ATS. Gundy knows how to win close games…
Oklahoma St. -3.5
Oklahoma -13.5 vs. Cincinnati
The Bearcats lost the Freedom Bell to Miami of Ohio last week for the first time in like 20 years, and how will they bounce back? By welcoming the Sooners to Clifton Ohio for a noon kick. The Sooners have flown a bit under the radar this season, but they are my sleeper pick for the Big 12. Currently they are averaging 57 ppg. with QB Dillon Gabriel racking up 905 yards and 11 TDs so far. There’s too much firepower on display for a rebuilding Bearcat squad trying to find its way.
Oklahoma -13.5
South Carolina -6 vs. Mississippi St.
I’m feeling a little frisky with this one but what the hell. The Gamecocks gave UGA all they could handle last weekend and there could be a hangover affect here. WR Juice Wells will be out for this one. But I really like what I’ve seen from Spencer Rattler this year despite some early picks. The Bulldogs absolutely no showed me last week against LSU and their offense couldn’t get anything going against the Tigers defense. Will Rogers looked lost at quarterback and the Bulldogs only converted 30% of their third downs. I think they will be better, but give me the Gamecocks to cover here.
South Carolina -6
Oregon -21 vs. Colorado
I may be a week early here, but I’m willing to risk it. Colorado is the story of college football this year and they have an amazing talent in Shedeur Sanders, but I saw enough cracks in the Buffalos last week to believe it’s time to get out while the getting is good. The Colorado offensive line is bad, and Sanders had to pull a few rabbits out of his hat to get things moving late in the game. He looked rattled taking hits early and I would expect the Ducks to get after him tomorrow. Defensively, Colorado lacks size upfront and their linebackers get lost in coverage. I expect Oregon to follow a similar gameplan that CSU took last week attacking the Buffs underneath. Bo Nix has been in college for approximately 10 years and in that time he has seen it all and learned. If he can stay within the moment and not try to outgun Shedeur, I think the Ducks will be just fine.
Oregon -21
Virginia vs. NC State Over 48.5
Welcome home BA… I’m glad I’ll be out watching Daniel Tosh tonight and not have to sit through this clunker. I need a break from watching Virginia football. The downside is I’ll miss what I’m expecting to be Armstrong in his finest moment, 17/38 282 yrs 3tds 2ints. It’ll be good to see those “ehh” numbers again. The Hoos continue to baffle me, the offense has shown moments and I have no clue who will be the starting QB tonight. I’m not even sure it matters a ton. The defense has once against occupied my full focus and concern with the terrible breakdowns in coverage, poor tackling and stupid penalties. Ugg… I’m over this and it’s only week 4.
Over 48.5