Last week 1-6
Overall 13-10
I hate Tim Tebow, but he hits it on the head with this one. I let myself down, I let my family down and I let yāall down. That hurts Dragon. I am sorry. I must do better and I accept responsibility. Iāve been deep in film study this week. I took up meditation, I pushed over a tree. Whatever it takes to get this ship going right again.
As always Dragonās College Football Picks are brought to you by, Dragonās Lair Training, Gold Toe black dress socks, and Sour Patch Kids.
Nebraska -7.5 vs. Illinois
Getting the train rolling early this week with a little Friday B1G action. I like this version of the Cornhuskers. Matt Rhule is leaving his mark on the squad and they are playing well behind Pat Mahomes cosplayer Dylan Raiola. Thereās been some movement with the line opening at -10 and moving down as the week progressed. Many are banking on Illinois defense to show up and save the day. But this Cornhusker offense is not like one weāve seen before. Illinois claim to fame on the season is a win over Kansas, but after last Friday I question everything about Kansas football.
Nebraska -7.5
Oklahoma St. +1.5 vs. Utah
In doing my research I found one of the most surprising nuggets ever. Utah is awful on the road. Utah has not won a major road game since 2019, against an Arizona State team that ended up sub .500 in conference failing to win again after that game with the Utes. Old man QB Cam Rising (seriously he roomed with @DFresh11 and @chavlicek15 first year) is 7-6 when starting a game in a neutral or away game. Why does all this surprise me? Because Kyle Whittingham built the Utes on toughness, physical defense, efficient passing and a stout rushing attack, these are all staples of teams that can go on the road and win but it has not been the case for Utah in some time. On the flip side this is not the best Okie State team weāve seen, RB Ollie Gordon is only averaging 3.5 yards per attempt a massive drop in production from 6.1 he averaged a year ago. That said, the snake wrangler Mike Gundy is 17-6 in games when the spread is within +3/-3. Diving deeper into that number, in 10 home games the Pokes are 8-2 winning the last six. Sometimes you just canāt fight Vegas.
Oklahoma State +1.5
LSU -21 vs. UCLA
There was mention that UVa might be the worst P4 team in the nation, and I eagerly nominate UCLA for that award. Why? The Bruins are 1-1 on the season, they snuck out a 16-13 win against Mountain West powerhouse Hawaii, and then got boat raced by Indiana 41-13 and that score line does not indicated how badly UCLA was dominated in every phase of the game. Need more evidence? On Tuesday a UCLA CB told the media that the coached stopped practice because the energy was too low (thatās coach speak for things are sh%t). But wait thereās more On Wednesday reports emerged that Jay Toia the senior defensive tackle and leader on that side of the ball may not be available for Saturdayās game. Things are not good in LA right now, and now they get to travel across the country to the real Death Valley to take on LSU. 60 minutes in the Louisiana heat and humidity will make the heartiest team fold, but one that is already wobbly and struggling to compete at practice this is a recipe for disaster.
LSU -21
Charlotte vs. Indiana Under 48.5
The 49āers have had their share of struggles this season, and things donāt look to get better this weekend against the defensive powerhouse (checks notes) Indiana Hoosiersā¦Charlotte is without starting QB Max Brown due to injury. His replacement Deshawn Purdie had a rough day at the office last week against Gardner-Webb (this feels like a bad basketball preview not football) he was sacked six times for -77 yards. Coach Bryant Haines came to Indiana from JMU and he has brought an exotic defensive scheme with him. The Hoosiers defense relies on chaos and confusion. This is done through pre-snap deception, showing one look and then shifting just as the ball is snapped, or simply disguising what their intents are. The results have been effective and devastating. The Hoosiers currently rank 2nd in the nation for most sacks. Watch out for Mikail Kamara who followed Coach Haines from Harrisonburg, heās already racked up 3 sacks this season, which is more than halfway to surpassing last yearās individual season leader. As a team the Hoosiers are holding opponents to a 25% conversion rate on third down. Good luck Deshawn Purdie, youāll need it
Under 48.5
Michigan +4.5 vs. USC Under 44
Welcome to the Big Ten USC, your first league game in your new conference is a trip to the Big House to face defending National Champions Michigan. The Trojans have not been on the road for a true road game all season, and the 100K+ in Anne Arbor will be eager to welcome them. Why am I so high on a Michigan team that has been subpar all season? Alex Orji, thatās your Wolverines new starting QB and I am banking his dual-threat capabilities will help set things right for a Wolverines offense that has struggled to this point of the season. The shift in play caller has sparked the betting number that opened at +10 and has come down with the mid-week announcement. With Orji under center there is a chance Michigan goes full RPO, to take advantage of his skills and to help ease the new QB into the what will be a big game environment. The Trojans are off to a hot start, but they have yet to face a truly physical defense, and that could pose some problems for them and we could see Miller Moss finally be slowed down. I like Michigan to roll the clock back to last season here and ugly it up, control the ball, control the clock and keep this one close.
Michigan +4.5 Under 44
Tennessee vs. Oklahoma Under 57
I know this pick seems ridiculous given that the Vols have lit up the scoreboard all season and are averaging 50+ ppg but hear me out. QB Nico Iamaleavea has been great for the Vols but now he enters his first true road game in a true hostile environment on the road in Norman Oklahoma. Josh Heupel will likely want to ease his young QB into the action against a Sooner defense that has been solid so far this season. Through 3 games the Oklahoma defense have forced 10 turnovers and will look to get after Nico early to disrupt him and shake his confidence. Tennessee also have a solid defense, they have not given up an offensive TD all season. That could spell trouble for Oklahoma whoās struggled on 3rd down conversions, currently ranking 110th in the country.
Under 57
Virginia -3.5 vs Coastal Carolina
I just canāt seem to quit this programā¦ The keys to this one are really simple protect the ball and the win will be easy. Weāve sliced and diced this Virginia team on this board over the last month, I love that we are talking Virginia football. For me this is not a scheme or a planning game, itās a want/must have game. The Hoos will not be out athleteād (think I coined that phrase) in this one, they should have the advantage in the Jimmy and Joes and now itās time for them to show up and play like it. Iām hard on AC because I expect the most out of him on this team, if youāre going to be a leader and have that swagger you got to show up and back it up. 6 TOās in 3 games is unacceptable, donāt blame the line or anyone else he has to be better. The Virginia defense has done well with the bend donāt break model, their biggest issue is they are being left on the field for 70% of the second half and no unit can withstand that. For the Chanticleers the times have changed. Ethan Vasko is the QB whoās accounted for just shy of 700 yards of offense on the season. They want to get him out and let him run, heās second on the team in rushing attempts with 34. The Virginia defensive line will need to maintain their composure, keep their lanes and bottle Vasko up. As a passer Vasko leaves a lot to be desired completing just 55% of his passes. The Chanticleers only convert 37% of their third down opportunities, forcing 3rd and long will be the story of the game. Defensively this is a Coastal team that honestly does not get after it. They are giving up over 20 ppg against subpar teams. They have forced just 3 turnovers, so their should be lanes and opportunities.
Hoos -3.5 in a must have game
