Last Week 5-3
Feel Tony Robbins good after after solid week (5-3) bringing my hit rate to 64% on the season. I’m so excited I’m bringing my picks to you a day early. Or I’ll be in Nashville for the weekend celebrating my 40th and won’t have time to do this tomorrow. Either way, we’re feeling good high stepping our way to the pay window.
Utah vs. Oregon State Under 44.5
The Utes are the little engine that could. They are off to a 4-0 start with their fourth string quarterback. They’ve also knocked off 4 P5 teams along the way. In route to that undefeated start, Utah has seen their offense struggle and slow down each week (24 against Florida, 20 against Baylor, and 7 offensive points against UCLA last week). On the other side the Beavers are holding it down for the Pac12 but got humbled by conference rival Washington St. Looking at Oregon States record, I attribute a bit portion of their 3-1 start to feasting on Mountain West teams, maybe they are previewing their future. I think the Utah defense is legit and can ugly this thing up enough to force the under.
USC vs. Colorado Over 73.5
I must have gotten into the bourbon early for this one but hear me out. Typically I’d love the Buffs on a bounce back here. All that “Now it’s personal” talk has to be sometime for Coach Prime. But while I expect Colorado to be better and hungry on Saturday, 21 is a massive number, and USC is a different type of cat than Colorado is used to. The USC offense is designed to exploit the exact things the Colorado defense is bad at. Caleb Williams will have loads of time to pick apart a weak secondary and linebacker core, and with their speed on the outside the Trojans will be able to stretch Colorado vertically in a way they have not seen thus far. The improvement I expect from Colorado will come on the offensive side where I think the Oline will be competent against a less aggressive and dangerous USC defensive front. This should allow for some opportunities to move the ball and get some points on the board. If the Trojans are unable to establish the line of scrimmage early I think this becomes more a shootout similar to what we saw when Colorado played TCU in the opener.
Houston +9.5 vs. Texas Tech
Get in on this one before it’s gone. Opened at 10 down to 8.5 in most spots and likely to drop before the weekend. The skinny is Texas Tech has gotten off to a horrible start this season and now starting QB Tyler Shough is out with a broke fibula and I’m not sure who they have prepared to suit up on Saturday. The Cougars have bit me in the butt plenty of times in the past, but I like a Dana Holgorsen-coached team to muck things up and 9.5 is lot for a team without a QB.
Sorry @CavTex Houston +9.5
Michigan vs. Nebraska Under 39
How do you make a game that features a team with the slowest paced offense in the country and a defense that’s given up 23 total points all season? Take the under and sweat it out. Coach Harbaugh is back roaming the sidelines for the Wolverines but I don’t expect their offensive tendencies to change. Michigan doesn’t allow a lot of possessions, now I know what non-UVA basketball fans feel like when they watch the Hoos, and that’s why I like the under here. Michigan will choke out the Cornhuskers offense, but they won’t allow themselves enough touches to run the score up.
Georgia -14 vs. Auburn
It feels strange that UGA has basically flown under the radar this season. Even a slight scare against South Carolina went unnoticed and frankly should be expected as the Dawgs continue to break in a new QB. For me this is more about what Auburn can’t do, which is score. The Tigers have scored 10, 10, 6, 14, 10 and 7 points in six straight losses to Georgia. What has Auburn done this season? They scored 10 and 14 points, gaining 230 and 200 yards on 119 total plays (3.6 yards per play) against P5 teams this season. The Tigers offense is a wreck and playing the Dawgs will not help.
Duke vs. Notre Dame Over 54.5
Another line that is moving, it was 52.5 this morning (it’s currently 2pm). On paper the under is the logical choice 54 is a lot of points and you have two teams coached by defensive minded coaches, but they enter the game wielding NFL caliber QBs. I expect ND’s Sam Hartman and Duke’s Riley Leonard to put on a show Saturday night. Audric Estime from ND leads the country in rushing but he faces two of the best D-Tackles in the nation in Duke’s DeWayne Carter and Ja Mion Franklin.
Missouri -13.5 vs. Vanderbilt
Missouri enters their SEC schedule undefeated, they also have not played a P5 team all year. Vandy, has a fairly potent offense averaging 33ppg, unfortunately the defense is giving up 32ppg. That’s a recipe for disaster if I’ve ever seen one. Why do I really care about this game? I’m debating if I should pop in and having a vested interest certainly helps.
Virginia +3.5 vs. Boston College Under 54.5
This is it! Welcome back Tony Muskett, I never doubted you. I honestly love the Hoo’s chances in this one, and I haven’t felt that way about this team all season. BC is a bad team that is very undisciplined. There’s been at on of talk about their game against FSU, but most forget to mention the 18 penalties they racked up including the facemask that sealed the game for them. I have talked myself into liking Virginia’s QB situation I do believe they have 2 guys capable of getting the job done and if one falters, throw the other guy out there. Lastly, this year’s Virginia team has had every possible bad break imaginable something has to give.
Hoos +3.5 Under 54.5