Last Week 3-5
Overall 16-15
Like Tim Tebowās NFL career, last week was a bag of mixed results resulting in eventual failure. 3-5 on the week has me just above .500 on the year and feeling the pressure to break out of this slump with a big week. Part of me was hoping this hurricane thing would be big enough to just cancel the entire week and I would be off the hook. But I canāt run from this, this is my destiny picking winners and making money for the LRA community.
As always Dragonās College Football Picks are sponsored by Dragonās Lair Training, Blmipieās Subs, and the Spring Factory that the Hawk Tuah girl used to work at.
Michigan vs. Minnesota OVER 34.5
The Wolverines won a game last week with a QB who completed 7 passes and Iām taking the overā¦ The line on this one opened at 39.5 and has worked itās way down enough that Iāve changed my position on it, so Iām playing into Vegasā hands but Iām living dangerously this year āeff em.ā Minnesotaās rushing defense got thumbed by the Iowa Hawkeyes last week to the tune of 272 yards. The Gophers have given up five rushing TDās on the season. Last week the Wolverines threw the ball for 32 yards but they ran it for 290 yards in a gutty win against the favored USC Trojans. Kalel Mullings has stepped up as the lead back for the Wolverines and in a game like this the key is who can break off chunk plays because thereās not a lot of possessions to go around. Mullings is your man in that department. Michigan will pound the Gophers into submission and I like their odds to push the total on their own.
Over 34.5
Tulsa vs. North Texas OVER 67.5
Throw out the record books when the Mean Green and the Golden Hurricanes get together, this one has the potential to be a barn burner. Tula is averaging 327 yards through the air, good for ninth in the nation. They attack deep 39% of quarterback Chandler Morrisā passes are in the medium to deep range with eighth of his touchdowns falling in that range. Tulsa matching that potent offense with an inept defense that has allowed 17 total touchdowns so far this season. I expect the Mean Green to do their part to reach the over by playing to their āoutscore rather than defendā approach to winning games (isnāt that what the Hoos did under Bronco?). North Texas ranks 199th in touchdowns allowed.
Over 67.5
Kansas State -4.5 vs. Oklahoma State
When you gamble it pays to have a short memory and thatās whatās allowing me to pick this game. Last week Kansas State opened Big 12 play out in Provo against BYU and they took it on the chin 31-6. But sometimes the score does not tell the whole story. The score was 6-3 less than a minute before the first half finished. Then a 30 yard scoop and score fumble return and a 90 yard punt return a couple picks and 6 game minutes later itās all over. Kansas State is not that bad, and I expect them to clean things up on Saturday. For Oklahoma State, I am taking the lessons learned from last week. In a home game against a Utah team that trotted out a true QB who didnāt even take first team reps in practice last week, and got dinky donkād. The Utes were up 22-3 before The Cowpokes got a couple of sympathy TDās late in the fourth. The play of quarterback Alan Bowman was atrocious at one point through 3 quarters he was 8-22 with less than 100 yards passing. I expect to see the Kansas State team that dominated my Darkhorse Arizona Wildcats a few weeks ago.
Kansas State -4.5
Maryland vs. Indiana OVER 50
Last week I was all about the Indiana defense dominated an overmatched Charlotte team. But what I didnāt account for was how good the Hoosiers offense is. They dropped 52 on the 49āers last week. Quarterback Kuris Rouke is ranked seventh nationally in completion percentage. He has a deep receiving group around him that allows him to spread the ball and not allow defenses to key in on a single target. Miles Cross is a favorite target for Rouke after forging a relationship during their time as Ohio Bobcats. For the Terps, as Virginia fans we are all aware of the weapons they have on the outside. Billy Edwards is a veteran QB who plays smart, he can run when he needs to extend and make plays and Tai Felton is a flat out baller. His ability to play at all three levels, will help to provide relief against an Indiana team that likes to get after the quarterback and disrupt slow developing plays. 51 is a modest over in todayās game and one that I believe is attainable.
Over 50
Penn State -17.5 vs. Illinois
James Franklin has knack for these sort of games. Heās 17-0-1 ATS since 2000 when favored between seven and 24 points. As I mentioned in week 2, Franklin also seems to be at least slightly aware of the spreads and has been assumed to throw his big alumni a bone. Illinois went into a hostile Nebraska environment and took the win in OT, but this will be a different animal. I expect PSU to go on the attack early using their passing game to score and force the Illini to play from behind forcing them to be one dimensional and playing into the hands of a PSU defense that is far better than the Cornhusker defense that failed to get crucial stops last week.
Northern Illinois +7.5 vs. NC State
The same recipe that led the Huskies to victory against Notre Dame two weeks ago will keep them in the ballgame against the Wolfpack. Lean on an offensive line that has five experienced seniors to anchor a rushing attack led by Antario Brown. Control the clock keep the NC State offense on the sidelines. NC State has been a bit tough to watch at times this season they were overmatched in games against Tennessee and Clemson and looked okay in a game against La. Tech sandwiched between those monster showdowns. I have questions about the NC State offense, that only put up 30 on La Tech, and scored the majority of their points in garbage time against Clemson and Tennessee. The NIU defense can force turnovers, two interceptions against ND and they held Bufallo to 184 total yards of offense. I like expect them to play with confidence and keep this one tight to make the Wolfpack earn it.
NIU +7.5
Oregon vs. UCLA OVER 54.5
Oregon coming off a bye after getting their offense right in the second half against Oregon State, taking on an UCLA that showed resolve against LSU last week but still came up short, I like the way this one sets up. After playing a good half against LSU the Bruins defense fell back into old habits that have left them ranked 126th in points allowed per drive,130th in passing success rate defense and dead last in third-down defense. Those are not the stats you want when facing a team that scored on all eight of their scoring eligible drives the last time they took the field (6 TDs 2 FGs). Two other kickers for this one, Oregon likes traveling to LA, they view it as a showcase opportunity, a lot of their talent comes from that area and itās an opportunity to show out. Second, the Ducks donāt take the foot off the gas once theyāre up. Backup quarterback Dante Moore is a 5star prospect who they let sling it when he comes in. Heās also a UCLA transfer so Iām sure heāll enjoy showing off against his old team.
Over 54.5
