Last Week 4-5
Overall 24-19
Coming at you on a Saturday morning because well life happens when youāre the parent of a 3-year old and sometimes that means a day at the doctors (heās fine). Now I got to make some money to pay for these medical bills because ā¦(donāt make it political Dragon just get to the bets). This season Iāve alternated good week vs bad week. IF I can follow form that means I should be in for a good week this week.
As always Dragonās College Football Picks are brought to you by Dragonās Lair Training, Tall Pines Marketing & Communications, and desperation, if you gamble you know what I am talking about.
Miami -4.0 vs. Florida State
Oline DLine Miami is the best front lines in the country. This is still THE rivalry for Coach Cristabol and he will want to punish FSU at every moment possible.
Miami -4
Alabama -11 vs. Vanderbilt
The wise guys are saying donāt believe the hype and Iām inclined to believe what they are saying. Vandy will not surprise Bama this time around. Bama is 38th in defense this is a very stout unit that is not appreciated enough. Standing out for me is yes Vandy is 5-0 but who have they played this year? A FCS team. The Hokies who went on to fire their coach a few weeks later. South Carolina without LaNorris Sellers, Georgia State and Utah State. That is not a murderers row.
Alabama -11
Clemson vs. North Carolina Over 46.5
Two of the most disappointing teams in the ACC this season? I guess we all knew UNC would struggle this year, but no one was willing to jump out and say it. Dabo is 0-4 ATS. The Clemson defense is not close to what we expected this season. They gave up 300 yards FIRST HALF yards to Syracuse a few weeks ago. Enjoy that Ludicris concert on Campus that starts at 9:45 AMā¦
OVER 46.5
Nebraska -11.5 vs. Michigan State
I feel like Iāve spent a lot of time in the Big 10 this season but the lines keep calling me back and who am I to deny them. I havenāt talked much about the Spartans this season, but I see trouble on the horizon for MSU. The Michigan State defense that allowed 390 through the air and 40 points to Boston College, and 523 yards and 45 points to USC is heading to Nebraska today to take on a Cornhusker team that has not played since losing by a field goal at home to Michigan in a game where the Cornhuskers allowed 105 passing yards. Iām banking on a strong bounce back from Nebraska
Nebraska -11.5
TCU - 13.5 vs. Colorado
The Buffaloes held on to get me the cover last week against BYU, but it was a nailbiter. Unsurprisingly the Buffs offense has looked tepid this season with Sanders and Hunter gone. More concerning is the Colorado defense is once again struggling for the third consecutive year. The Buffs are 104th in yards per play and 85th in points per drive. They are 119th in havoc rate. The got the cover last weekend but blew the first half lead they held on BYU to lose the game outright. I expect TCU to play a clean game and get their passing game back in order. The other thing I do not like here is Coloradoās coaching staff on the road in a hostile game. That staff just doesnāt manage end-of-half or game situations all that well. Counter to Coach Primeās persona, Colorado is conservative on offense opting to punt and settle for field goals rather than go for it on fourth downs. Modern football does not reward that conservatism often.
TCU -13.5
Florida +5.5 vs. Texas Under 42.5
This line is on the move which makes me nervous and I make use a Draft Kings Booster to buy a point to get me back to 6.5. The line opened at 7.5 which felt very comfortable and as the week progressed public confidence in Texas is continuing to drop. I like Floridaās defensive line here they are the best unit on the Gators team. The key for my cover is banked on DJ Lagway not falling apart with another 5 INT performance. The Texas offensive line has struggled and that has played a big role in Archās struggles. An afternoon game in the Swamp two highly regarded QBās who are having awful seasons. This has ugly written all over it.
Florida +5.5 Under 42.5
Cal +2.5 vs. Duke
ACC after dark with a 10:30PM ET kick, the last game on this weekās college football schedule. Cal and Duke are the two teams that scare me the most looking ahead at the Hoos schedule. I donāt think either team are powerhouses but I do believe they are solid and just unpredictable enough they can be dangerous. I think get that full experience tonight in Berkley. I donāt see the Blue Devils getting hype for this late night game and as a result we get a classic ACC slugfest with the Bears coming out on top.
Cal +2.5
Virginia +7 vs. Louisville Over 60.5
Let the let down being. Even in victory todayās game would be a let down experience for the Hoos. Itās nearly impossible for a team to maintain the sharpness and excitement Virginia had last week and carry it into this week. Coach Rud called the game of his life last week, rallying his defense to hold FSU without a TD in overtime and it took a Heisman worthy play for the 'Noles to simply get it to OT. The Hoos will need to muster all of that effort today. Working in their favor unlike FSU, UofL is a one-dimensional offense. The cards rank 103 in the nation in rushing yards averaging just 130 ypg. Their passing attack has carried water to keep this high powered offense afloat all season. Transfer QB Miller Moss has been efficient, but he does turn the ball over. EKU got to him 2 times in the opener and Pitt picked him off once in the first half last week. This will be UofLs biggest most difficult opponent to-date. Taking the Hoos plus the Over to cover myself here.
Virginia +7 Over 60.5