Last Week 5-2
Overall 21-17
Last week went pretty well. While most of America was all about the UGA/Bama game, for me the most exciting moments came sweating the NIU/NC State game in the final 4 minutes. The joys that gambling bring to our lives is tough to match. Itās Week 6 of the football season and I feel like this is a make or break moment for Dragonās picks, need to string together a couple good weeks to feel good. Maybe I should just copy @JBHoo since heās on the run of a lifetime.
As always Dragonās College Football Picks are brought to you by Dragonās Lair Training, Sunny Mt. Gas Station, the sound that came when you hung up on someone with a flip phoneā¦ damn I miss that.
Missouri +2.5 vs Texas A&M
I think this is going to be a fun one. Missouri is a tough one to figure out, they trailed Boston College by double digits at one point, and it require double overtime to beat Vanderbilt, but that was in week 2. The Tigers have a dangerous rushing attack led by Nate Noel who handles the bulk of the workload, with back-to-back 100 yard effort and is averaging 6.9 yards per carry in that stretch. Texas A&M had trouble bottling up the run earlier in the season, Notre Dame gashed them for 198 yards in the season opener. Iām keeping an eye on time of possession in this one. Missouri ranks 5th nationally in time of possession and if they can generate a sustained attack they will wear down the Aggies front seven.
Missouri +2.5
Miami vs. Cal UNDER 54
Miami got away with one last week. While I agree that was not a catch, the Canes played poorly at home to an inferior VT team and survived. Cal has become my personal media darling for the ACC. Theyāre also pretty good on the football field. Miami will be the biggest test theyāve faced this season, and getting the Canes on a 3,000 mile road trip will play to their advantage. The Golden Bearsā defense have ben turnover vultures this season forcing 10 interceptions through five games and last week the Hokies gave them the blueprint on how to rattle Miami QB Cam Ward. Blitz Ward, he can be sped up and forced into making mistakes. Against Va. Tech, he threw two interceptions while facing the blitz. The Miami defense showed plenty of weaknesses last week giving up 141 yards on the ground to Bhaushul Tuten, and his stats do not compare to the numbers Cal back Jaivian Thomas has put up, 7 yards per attempt. Iām going to need a few things to go right for this one to fall my way, but I like the potential for that to happen. Two solid defenses that can get after the quarterback and force turnovers and the potential for some conservative playcalling to stop the above from happening should give me the results I am looking for.
Under 54
Navy -10 vs. Air Force OVER 37
I swear I donāt do this just to make fun of @jazznutUVA. Navy is good 4-0 with a great offense. The Midshipmen rank 10th in the nation in net yards per play, and are fourth in points per drive. Who said you need to run the Air Raid to put up points? Navy has already attempted (checks notes) 44 passes this season, and quarterback Blake Horvath has completed 30 of them, start the Heisman hype.
Question What do Alabamaās Milroe, Lamar Jackson (yes that one), Colin Kapernick, and Blake Horvath have in common?
Answer They are the only players to have seven passing touchdowns and eight rushing touchdowns through their teams first four games of the season in the last 20 years.
Air Force is bad, 0-4 straight up and against the spread this year. The FlyBoys rank 129th in points per drive on offense.
Navy -10 OVER 37
Indiana vs. Northwestern Over 40.5
It should be obvious at this point that I have a thing for the Indiana Hoosiers. This is my third consecutive week picking one of their games, going 1-1. Time to wrap up the series. Northwestern is Northwestern and I expect them to hold up their end of the deal in this one one and give me 3-6 points. I love the IU offense and their ability to attack and as we saw last week against Maryland they will not stop if they get up. The biggest concern in this one might be the winds blowing in off Lake Michigan, thereās rumors they may whipping around and that could slow down the Indiana passing attack in the Northwestern makeshift stadium.
Over 40.5
Rutgers +7 vs. Nebraska
Iām sure Cornhusker fans never thought their Big 10 fate would be in the hands of Rutgers football but here we are. The Scarlett Knights run the ball. The run it often, and they run it well. For a team from the Garden State they play like a throwback Big 10 team. Kyle Monangai is a load at 5ā9 209. He averages 24 carries and 147 yards a game and punishes opponents late in games when they begin to slip off tackles. Rutgers ranks 3rd in the nation in rushing success rate. Nebraska has not faced an opponent that comes close to this level of effectiveness on the ground. Illinois ranks 107th in rushing success rate and they ran for 166 yards against the Cornhuskers. I expect Rutgers to keep this one close and sneak out a cover.
Rutgers +7
Clemson vs. Florida State OVER 46.5
Good news for Florida State fans D.J. Uiagalelei will not play on Saturday due to injury. He was 12-30 with three interceptions last week against SMU before he was pulled from the game. From the outside it appears the Noles have no interest in playing football this season. Head coach Mike Norvell is well on his way to losing the team. Perhaps a new face under center can serve as a shot in the arm. But they will face a Clemson team that recovered from the season opener loss to Georgia and have blown teams out the water since then. Cade Klubnik is quickly becoming the next great Tigers quarterback, with 984 yards, 12 TDs and 2 picks on the year. Since the Season opening loss Clemson has averaged 55 points per game. The over for this one feels like a lock.
Over 46.5
Virginia -1 vs. Boston College
The 89 boys are back in town. Unrelated to the game, but I am glad to see the program making an effort and appreciating the legends of the past. Itās been a criticism Iāve had for years and I feel like lately they are turning a corner and Iām happy about that. The forum has document the line shifting from -3.5 to -1 during the week. We all know this is due to Boston College getting their starting QB back. This is a game I would never if it wasnāt for the purpose of this forum if Iām being honest. Itās a tight line with no real benefit to picking. But here we are, I am hoping we see a healthy dose of the rushing attack we saw two weeks ago against Coastal Carolina. Control the clock and keep the BC offense off the field. The Virginia defense has largely been successful this season, they are getting after the quarterback at an unprecedented rate for this program. Boston College does not have the burners on the edge that the Hoos have faced in recent weeks which should allow for the defense to dial up some new blitz combos.
Virginia -1