Dragon's College Football Picks Week 7 (Season 4)

Football
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Last Week 7-2
Overall 36-21

hockey players yes GIF by CraveTV

Somebody call my Mama cause I am stealing money this season. I’ve had some great years, but the first half of this one will be one for the books. Now, let’s make sure I don’t come crashing down to reality because I don’t wanna come down from this high.

Air Force -11 vs. Wyoming
This one is for my guy @jazznutUVA. The Air Force offense has been a juggernaut this season. They have steamrolled everything in their path, the only time they scored less than 30 points was in week 2 against Sam Houston. Wyoming has a knack for pulling upsets this season, twice they won outright as a 6 point dog. But that included catching Texas Tech week one and slipping by Fresno last week. Meanwhile the Wyoming defense is giving up over 7 yards per carry. Good luck slowing down those flyboys.
Air Force -11

Notre Dame -2.5 vs USC
It’s going to be a rainy fall night in South Bend, and I love this as an opportunity for Sam Hartman and the Irish to get right. The USC defense is bad. 115th in the nation in tackle rate, 73rd in points per drive. Need me to go on? They have up 41 to Arizona, 41 to Colorado and 28 to Arizona State. Lincoln Riley truly brought the Big 12 to the Pac 12. Caleb Williams is a stud but he can only do so much when his defense gives up 30+ a night. Last week we saw three weeks of grueling football catch up to the Domers and Saturday night we see 3 weeks of lackluster football catch up to the Trojans.
Notre Dame -2.5

UCLA vs. Oregon State Under 54
The Bruins have true freshman as their starting QB and he looks like a true freshman. Worst, the UCLA staff treats him like one often going conservative with their calls or narrowing his options so much that he is basically useless. Oregon State has a similar situation with D.J. Uiagalelei who is streaky at best, and is best when he using his legs. To protect him, the Beavers RB Carson Steele (great football name) carried the ball 30 times last week. Both teams are likely to take the air out of this one.
Under 54

NC State +3 vs. Duke
I actually feel bad for Duke football they were in the midst of something special and then quaterback Riley Leonard’s ankle exploded. It’s been two weeks since that happened against ND, but I doubt he suits up to play Saturday night, especially with a crucial showdown with FSU looming next weekend. The Wolfpack got some of their mojo back last week with the switch to MJ Morris. NC State dropped 45 points and gained over 400 yards on offense. The key will be keeping Dr. Anae from being himself, last week he dropped BA into a crucial drive in the third and the WolfPack went from first and goal on the 2 yard line to third and goal from the 14. Some people never learn.
NC State +3

Oregon vs. Washington Over 67
A big number but I like it. This is the game of the weekend with two undefeated teams playing for the final bragging rights in the PAC 12. Two senior QB’s who are at the height of their game right now. Bo Nix has been around longer than I’ve been writing these predictions for LRA 4 years and counting. He’s turned into a reliable QB who is capable of making some special plays. He’s also a gamer who does not back down from a challenge. Unfortunately that has gotten him in trouble in the past. Big Road games are not his thing, where he’s been turnover prone in these situations. Michael Penix Jr. is special, and not enough of America has seen him play and it’s not just this year go back to his game winning drive as IU’s QB against PSU 4 years ago, the kid can play. The Huskies stadium is sold out, it’s going to be loud and crazy. Enjoy this one.
Over 67

Miami vs. UNC Over 56.5
The talk of college football all week was Miami and for all the wrong reasons if you’re a Hurricanes fan. Now the Canes go on the road to Chapel Hill to play a team that has beaten them four consecutive times. Typically this is the spot where Miami football falls off a cliff. It will be interesting to see if Cristabol’s toughness has been embedded into Miami culture. What Drake Maye has done for the Carolina offense is near legendary. These two teams have a budding rivalry and Saturday night they will score a ton of points in hopes of settling the most recent chapter.
Over 56.5

Rutgers vs. Michigan State Under 40.5
I can’t believe I am doing this to myself, but here I am. a win on Saturday and Rutgers is bowl eligible. How did they get there? Ball control, choke the clock and run it down your throats. Outside of Michigan, Rutgers may be the most B1G of all the B1G teams. Michigan State has shown some spark the last two weeks, but lets be honest there’s not a lot going on there, and certainly nothing to make me believe their offense is going to explode. This has gritty 1 score B1G game written all over it.
Under 40.5

Pitt +7.5 vs. Louisville
I really do like this UofL team they have a tremendous defense and just enough on offense to keep them in games. What they did last week against ND under the lights was a masterpiece and it’s exactly why I’m not picking them this week. Since 1978, teams have covered the spread following beating ND as a dog only 12 of 49 times. Typically when ND comes to town it’s the biggest game of the year and it’s tough to get back up for the second round. Toss in the fact that Pat Narduzzi is a stud in these situations. Twice he’s led the Panthers to win outright when facing a 6-0 team.
Louisville +7.5

Hoos are OFF
That’s a win.

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Air Force is covering this week… book it! Can’t stop the triple option when run correctly.

The key is a QB that can actually throw it occasionally to keep the DBs and Safeties honest.

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Might sign up for this train. What was your record last year @BDragon? Gotta bring some supporting evidence to the wife before getting on board.

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I was 55-41-2 going into week 12 last season and finished above with a 63% hit rate.

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Imma ride every one of these cept the Non Ville pick. Them dudes won for me last week vs ND, I think

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You got Blue or White this weekend?

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Hold up. You gotta ask your wife?

If you have to just say you are following The Dragon. The rest none my business

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Yeah, no way I’d ask my wife! (b/c there’s no way she’d say yes and I don’t need to get in trouble)

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Orange

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This is Haney genius. @Merch we gotta do some giveaway or charity thing for the Blue whatever color scrimmage

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Riffing off of @Galileo24 Fresh will take the Portal to win -3.75

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High reward but a damn high risk my friend haha.

Dabbled in March madness betting for the first time last year. She was like “do what you want but tell me before you make a bet and the outcome. I’ll hold you accountable.” Pretty effective mechanism to keep things reigned in tbh

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It was 2 weeks ago when my wife realized that I was picking games, and upon finding out she said I should put my picks behind a paywall and said LRA needed to step up.

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My wife will find out about our “no need to contribute to the 401(k), honey, I will just bet on MAC football games for $$ after we retire” retirement strategy in due time. Plus moving to Ohio will cut living expenses and put me closer to sources of info (and maybe influence outcomes, as needed).

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I’m just picking games; Dragon is making money. Listen to the man!

I like Wyoming, but I agree with taking Air Force this week. I like a let-down from Louisville, but I wouldn’t place money on this Pitt team. NC State? You picked that game last week and I was skeptical. I’m skeptical again. If Duke had a healthy starting QB, I’d take the Dukies. As it is, I’m staying away. I love one other pick you had and I’ll lead off with that one.

UCLA vs. Oregon State, under 54 I’m right there with you on this one. 6 of the last 8 meetings b/w these two have had totals in the 40s. The two exceptions were the last two years when UCLA’s total defense rating was 74th and 92nd respectively. This year? They are 5th.

Maryland -13.5 vs. Illinois. Maryland has trounced everyone on their schedule except Ohio State. What is it about Illinois that makes anyone think they won’t be the next victim? The fact that they lost by 13 to Nebraska? By 25 to Purdue the previous week? You’re telling me I don’t need to give up the full 14? Yes, please.

Arkansas +19.5 vs. Alabama Razorbacks are top 50 in total defense, and against both pass and the run. This despite having played LSU and Ole Miss. The Bama offense hasn’t been itself this year. This line is too heavy.

Cal +11 vs. Utah Utah can’t score and is 121st in the country for passing offense - only 150 yds per game. Cal is top 40 against the run, 115th against the pass. Can Utah take advantage of Cal’s weakness? Not enough to cover this many points. I liked this game a lot better when the line was 13.5 earlier in the week, but I’ll still take it at 11.

Wake Forest +1.5 vs. Virginia Tech, and under 48.5. Both these teams want to run it, which will shorten the game. Wake can be had in run defense, but Tech is even worse – 120th in the nation defending the run, giving up nearly 200 yards per game. And that’s not a number blown out of proportion by the 282 they gave up on the ground to FSU. They gave up 214 to Marshall, 256 to Rutgers, and 179 to Purdue. The last ten Wake Forest games dating back to last year have gone under the total 7 times and over the total only once. I see another 24-17 loss for the Hokies, their third of the year.

Iowa State +5 vs. Cincinnati. Iowa State’s offense struggled early in the year, but they played three of those games against Iowa, Ohio, and Oklahoma - all very stout defenses. In their last three games against Oklahoma, TCU, and Oklahoma St., Iowa State has averaged 25 points per game. With a game total of 43, putting 20-24 on the board would be significant. The Cincinnati run defense is slightly stronger, while Iowa State has advantages over the Bearcats in turnover margin (ten Iowa State interceptions so far!), red zone offense, and red zone defense. This one is probably a 3 point game either way. I’ll take 5 points.

Temple vs. North Texas, over 68.5. North Texas is averaging 467 yards per game of offense … and giving up 483 yards per game on defense. Both these teams like to throw the ball. Lots of clock stoppages should make for plenty of opportunities for defensive breakdowns. Sure it’s a big number, but these two teams have the offense and lack of defense to warrant it.

I’m 15-13-3 on the year.

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Man NC State is my weak spot. I’m banking a lot on the Duke QB being out which could easily come back to bite me. I really like your Cal pick I eyed that game hard. The Maryland pick was a good find as well.

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@BDragon Who you got Wales vs Argentina? You watching?

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Wish i played the prop bet the referee would have to be swapped out… :unamused:

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I liked Wales going in. Haven’t seen the score yet gonna watch tomorrow

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Update: went in on full slate of @BDragon picks this week. Buckling up for the night games.

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