Last Week 4-3-1
Overall 24-20-1
The temps were in the high 40ās here this morning, which is awful and I might have to join @chavlicek15 down south for warmer weather rain be damned, but the cool air, my Virginia hoodie signals itās officially football season and I cannot be happy. Last week I escaped with a just above .500 record and recorded my first push of the season. My feelings on the push are 100% based on how my week is going, last week I was annoyed because going 5-3 feels a lot better than 4-3. On other weeks when Iām 1-3, Iāll take anything to stop the bleeding.
As always Dragonās College Football Picks are brought to you by Dragonās Lair Training, Cornbread, and platypuses- like seriously WTF man.
Old Dominion +1.5 vs. Georgia State
Old Dominion is 1-4 on the season and Iām backing them on Saturday. Why? The Monarchs have the 36th most difficult schedule in the country. Even with the difficult schedule and the losses two of those losses were by eight points or fewer. Georgia State has the better record but they have plenty of weak spots. The Panthersā defense is 1134th in defensive success rate. They especially struggle stopping the run. Georgia State enters the game ranked 116th in third-down conversions allowed. This plays into Old Dominionās strength with two reliable running backs in Aaron Young and Bryce Duke who can carry the load offensively and keep drives moving.
Old Dominion +1.5
Washington vs. Iowa -2.5
Iāve flip-flopped on this one and untimely the circumstances of the situation influenced my choice. The Huskies are coming off an emotional win against Michigan last week, add on to that they have played every weekend this season and I think they take a step back due to fatigue and letdown. Washington also has only played one road game this season and they struggled with play-calling and penalties. Iowa is coming off a disastrous second half against Ohio State where the Buckeyes blew their doors off in Columbus. But back in the confines of a home game you can expect the fans to create an hostile environment for their guest. On the field, the Hawkeyes are ranked 16th in the nation in points per drive on defense. While the defense is not the elite unit that it was last season they remain stout. Offensively the we know Iowa attempted to reboot their offense and introduce a passing attack, and itās had moderate success. But they remain focused on running the ball and they do that well. Rutgers rushed for 184 yards against Washington in Week 5. Expect Iowa to serve a healthy dose of running back Kaleb Johnson who is averaging 7.9 yards a carry.
Iowa -2.5
Texas -14 vs. Oklahoma
The Red River Shootout/Rivalry/Game I dunno what itās officially called nowadays is one of my favorite games of the year. I blame it on that 9 months I spent in Norman Ok. This is a rivalry where double digit dogs have had success, but I just donāt see that happening this year. Oklahoma is not worthy of their ranking. The offense is bad. The Sooners rank 117th in the FBS in offensive expected points (thatās worst than Northwestern). Oklahoma has tried a couple options at quarterback to decent results last week against another underwhelming SEC team in Auburn. I do not see how the Sooners find a way to score against this Texas defense. The Longhorns have their eyes on a National Championship, but first they remember what happened last year when they blew a three point lead with 1:17 left on the clock. Texas is coming off a bye week and they get Quinn Ewers bak from injury.
Texas -14
Oregon vs. Ohio State UNDER 54
This is one that on paper makes no sense, but hear my out. The Ducks have struggled to finish drives the past weeks settling for field goals. The Buckeyes will turn up the pressure in the red zone and exploit those opportunities. On the flip side weāve seen that a good defense can contain Ohio State for a while. The Ducks are a solid bunch on defense, and I think they keep the explosive plays to a minimum and grind away at the clock when they have the ball.
Under 54
BYU -3 vs. Arizona
The Cougars are good and theyāve been bettor friendly, 5-0 on the record and 5-0 ATS. This is a line that has seen significant movement over the week opening at -2.5 and climbing as high as BYU-5. Itās settle down to a reasonable number given the two teams. Kalani Sitake has his team eyeing a Big 12 title run and he will ride the arm of QB Jake Retzlaff who has thrown 12 TDs so far this season. The home town crowd will be rocking in Provo.
BYU -3
Penn St. -3.5 vs. USC
The Big 10 has not been kind to their new California based members. USC has dropped games to Michigan and Minnesota so far this season. But you could also argue itās not the conference itās the coach, after going 11-3 his first season Lincoln Riley has struggle to get the Trojans on track. Itās obvious what the issue is, the USC defense is bad. The offseason changing of defense coordinators has helped, but this is still a bad unit that is not capable of holding up against a balanced attack for four quarters. Penn State will bring their physicality on the road and control the line scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
Penn St. -3.5
West Virginia +3 vs. Iowa State
This feels like a trap game situation for the Cyclones when they visit West Virginia. Things get weird in Morgantown after dark. The crown will be rowdy and loud and ready to see the upset. West Virginia is coming off a 38-14 win over Oklahoma State, another ranked Big 12 team with big aspirations. The Mountaineerās feature a high powered offense that averages a tick bellow 32 points a game. They have a super-senior quarterback in Garrett Greene who is a dual threat QB rushing for 13 TDs last season.
West Virginia +3
Pitt - 3 vs. Cal
Coach Wilcox is going to have to pull one out of his hat if he wants to get his Bears back in the win column. After an emotional defeat last week, you can complain about missed targeting call but the Bears were still outscored 29-3 in a quarter, Cal gets the luxury of flying across the country for the third time in just over a month. Waiting for them is a Pitt Panthers team that honestly surprised me at how good they are. Pitt is 5-0 on the season and feature a high powered offense. Pitt has generated more ābig playsā (20 yards or more than any other team in the nation. The Panthers currently rank seventh nationally in points per drive. Cal has a solid defense but they simply cannot keep up on the offensive side of the ball. The Bears currently rank 101st in points per drive. Going on the road, facing an offensive juggernaut with a good bend-donāt-break defense is not enough to be successful.
Pitt -3
Virginia +7 vs. Louisville
Iāve seen chatter about āis this a big game?ā āis it a must win game?ā The answer is yes. Yes to all of it. For the first time since 2019 there are expectations, yes they are low, on a Virginia football team. Could the Hoos make a bowl game and drop Saturdayās game? Yes, but it would make it a whole lot easier if they just went out and won. Louisville is coming off back-to-back losses to a couple of ranked teams in SMU and Notre Dame. They played well in both games losing by a combined 14 points. This is a good team, and likely the best one the Hoos have faced to date. But they are far from the perfect team. Quarterback Tyler Shough can get roughed up. The Louisville Oline has given up 8 sacks so far this season. Despite a lack of health in the secondary, Virginia needs to continue to dial up the blitz and get pressure on the quarterback. On the offensive side this is a game where Virginia needs to lean into their rushing attack. Louisville gave up 190 yards on the ground to SMU, 113 of those came from QB Kevin Jennings. In Louisville other loss, Notre Dame roughed up the Cards for 163 yards on the ground.
Hoos +7