🏈 🎰 Dragon's College Football Picks Week 8 Season 6

[BDragon]

Last Week 3-5-1
33-28-1 on the year

I’ll leave it to the avid fans of this series to check the records, but I believe last week’s sub-.500 record has only happened four times in six seasons. That’s a good one, but with the bad week, I am dangerously close to dipping bellow .500 on the season which is unacceptable. I’m not one to dwell on the past, it’s time to get this train back on the tracks and start earning some money. I got a weekend in Charlottesville to pay for in a few weeks.

As always Dragon’s College Football Picks are brought to you by Dragon’s Lair Training, Tall Pines Marketing & Communications and cornbread.

Texas Tech -6.5 vs. Arizona State
Texas Tech has been one of my favorite teams to watch this season. They got the million dollar investment during the offseason and Coach McGuire has the Red Raiders rolling. Texas Tech is 6-0 straight up (SU) and 5-1 against the spread (ATS). A pair of 24-point victories — at Utah and at Houston — are the closest games Texas Tech has played this season. Want some more Red Raider info? Texas Tech ranks top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, averaging 45 points and 5.9 yards per carry in its past three games. The defense is stout, giving up only six touchdowns in 11 red zone trips on defense. The Sun Devils appear to be getting healthy with QB Sam Levitt’s foot is healing and his ability to go, caused the spread to drop from it’s opening 10pts, but that has not stopped a massive influx of Texas Tech money.
Texas Tech -6.5

San Jose St vs. Utah St Over 61.5
Does this mean I get to dunk on Bronco? Sure why not. The Aggies look like a Bronco led team, scoring points in bunches, ranking inside the top 25 in touchdowns scored and 125th is points against at 32.7 ppg. Utah State quarterback Bryson Barnes has connected for 10 touchdowns on throws beyond 10 yards. Not to be outdone, San Jose St. QB Walker Eget averages over 17 yards per attempt on passes of 20 yards or more. Together both teams rank inside the top 30 in plays per game. Let the fireworks begin!
Over 62.5

UNLV +13.5 vs. Boise St.
Let’s continue the trend of dunking on former UVA associated personalities and take a look at Anthony Colandria and the UNLV Rebels. The Rebels are 6-0 but are they really good? Currently UNLV’s resume is being propped up by their shootout victory over Air Force last week, which they failed to cover the 7. I’ll give credit where it is due, the Rebels can move the ball on offense and Dan Mullen is getting the most out of AC who looks comfortable in the new system and is protecting the ball. Boise St. is getting the advantage here because they are on the Blue Turf. The Broncos two losses this season came to a USF squad who started off blistering hot and a Notre Dame group who is rounding into shape as the season progresses. They feature a balanced attack that ranks in the top third in offense and defense and will apply pressure to a UNLV group that has shown cracks. 12 is a big number and I think the Rebels keep this one respectable.
UNLV +12.5

Alabama -8 vs. Tennessee
The Vols will make the trip to take on the Crimson Tide of Alabama on Saturday in an SEC showdown that has CFB implications. Bama (5-1 SU/4-2 ATS) are going for their fourth straight win over a Top 20 opponent. This feels like a revenge spot for Alabama who lost in Knoxville last season as three point favorites. As of this writing, Tennessee’s starting cornerbacks — Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson III — are out due to injury, expect the Crimson Tide to test their replacements early and often. Here’s a fun stat, the last time Tennessee beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa was 2003. Sometimes you have to bet the streak.
Alabama -8

Iowa -3 vs. PSU Under 39.5
Penn State is a train wreck, and now the vultures are circling to pick the bones. As of this morning several reports have gone out stating how toxic the locker room became under former coach James Franklin, and that players are simply playing to maintain or elevate their draft stocks. That’s not a problem that’s going to be fixed in one week by a interim coach. Oh and PSU lost their starting quarterback for the season last week. Now they travel to Iowa to play a night game against a Hawkeyes team that is rolling coming off a 37-0 shutout on the road against Wisconsin. Not a great time to give a QB his first career start behind a shaky Oline. I’m taking the under because I like to make myself suffer.
Iowa -3 Under 39.5

Cal -8.5 vs. UNC Over 46
Speaking of teams in disarray and stink, the Tar Heels spent their off week playing “will he? won’t he?” with Bill Belichick. Unfortunately for Carolina it looks like they are going to have to dynamite Belichick out of his job if they want to get rid of him. On the field, UNC has been outscored 120-33 against P4 opponents. UNC’s offense is 113th in points per drive and 127th in EPA per play. They’ve been brutalized thus far this season. Making the trip to Berkley for a night game may not be what the doctor ordered. The Cal defense is respectable ranking 55th in points per drive and they do not give up explosive plays. Look for another rough night at the office for the Tar Heels.
Cal -10 vs. UNC Over 47.5

Washington State +17.5 over 53.5
Remember folks you can win the game and not cover. 17.5 is a big number, and I’ll admit I’ve struggled when picking favorites who are double digits favorites. Washington State gave Ole’ Miss a scare last week in Oxford, but they came up short. Many Virginia fans took that to mean WSU is preparing to make a surge in the second half of the season, but I say not so fast my friend. Breaking down the Ole’ Miss game WSU was out performed in every aspect of the game. The scoreboard did not show a beatdown but it absolutely was. The offense was efficient but not productive. WSU went 2/10 on third downs on Saturday The defense held a sluggish Rebels unit in check but failed to create opportunities for themselves and yet again failed to get off the field on third downs. Those two factors make me like the Hoos in this spot. Virginia is holding teams to 31% third down conversions through this point of the season, while the offense is converting 53% of their opportunities. The Virginia OLine is built for this and with them getting healthy I expect a healthy dose of action Saturday evening. All that said, the spread is just too big. The Hoos could dominate all day on Saturday and still walk away with a 42-28 victory. Good for my over, not good for the cover.
Washington St +17.5 Over 53.5

[5sheff]

Oooh! Early picks this week. Love it!

I also love the over in San Jose St. and Utah St. I like the over in Virginia’s game. I like Iowa -3 …. but I’m concerned that the line hasn’t moved. Surely the vast majority of rubes like me are fading Penn State. So why isn’t the line moving from 3 to 4 or 5. Even 3.5?? This line hasn’t budged. Is there sharp money favoring Penn State plus the small number with their back-up QB?? I don’t know what is happening there. I’ll pass on it.

Here is what I’ve got:

New Mexico -12.5 vs. Nevada - New Mexico has a nicely balanced offense and I’ve been looking for a good week to pick them. Almost took them plus the points against Boise last week (which would have been a cover … barely), but this is a much better spot. At home against one of the weakest offenses in the nation. Nevada averages 13 points per game, bottom ten in red zone scoring, passing yards, and dead last in interceptions thrown.

App St. -10 vs. Coastal Carolina - App State has smashed the two inferior teams it has played. And make no mistake, Coastal Carolina is inferior. They ran all over UL Monroe last week at home, but this is a different situation. On the road and facing a top-20 rushing defense. Coastal has no passing offense to fall back on. This one shouldn’t be close.

Ball St. -1 vs. Akron - Ball State is 11-2 ATS as home team in past 2.5 years; 4-0 as a home favorite; 11-6-1 after a loss. Akron is … not good. Following the trend here: Ball State for the win!

N Texas -4 vs. UTSA - Home teams are 10-2 SU and 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 of the UTSA-UNT in-state rivalry. UTSA is 5-11 ATS as a road team in the last 2.5 years.

Temple -11.5 vs. Charlotte - Temple has played well and covered in each of its last three games even though they lost two of them. I think they will take out their frustrations on a bad Charlotte team

Bowling Green -3.5 vs. Central Michigan - Central Mich is 2-15 straight-up and 4-12-1 ATS in road games over the last 2.5 years. Coach Eddie George and Pudge the Cat have increased school interest in Bowling Green football to the point where average home attendance has gone up 65.9%, from 13,358 in 2024 to 22,162 in 2025. I’m rolling with Bowling at home.

Hawaii +2.5 vs. Colorado State - Colorado State’s offensive output last week was a fraud, as Fresno turned the ball over four times. Hawaii has a huge home/away discrepancy ATS, but their QB has thrown for 870 yards in the past two weeks with six touchdown passes against just one interception. He’ll keep rolling against the Rams.

Washington vs. Michigan, under 50.5 - Washington crossing country and playing an early game. Michigan is leaning heavily on the run, which plays into the Huskies’ strength. Let’s look for a tight low-scoring game in this one.

Southern Miss vs. Louisiana, over 54.5 - I was none too impressed with the Southern Miss defense last week, but the offense was fine and they continue to churn out 38 point offensive performances. Meanwhile, when Louisiana isn’t playing top-10 defenses like JMU and Missouri, they have been averaging about 30 points per game.

Ole Miss +7.5 vs. Georgia - Georgia has won but not impressed this year. Ole Miss had their down week last time out against Washington State, and will surely rebound. Meanwhile, Georgia is 4-12-1 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2.5 years. Give me the points!

I also like ODU and Marshall as slight underdogs, but couldn’t quite pull the trigger. Actually the ODU game has now moved to even from what I can see.

[SGHoo]

Just saw that Wazzu is last in the country in tackle success rate.. I can see our RBs and WR YAC going crazy. Definite over

[HoozGotNext]

I’m a little late to the party but this feels like a good Dragon week. And shoutout to @5sheff, appreciate all your research!

@BDragon

Texas Tech -7.5

Down to 6.5 this morning, that’s enough to sucker me in.

@BDragon

UNLV +12.5

Up to 13.5, good excuse to ride the AC roller coaster.

@BDragon

Alabama -8

There’s a Fan Duel 50% boost, so roll damn tide.

@5sheff

Ball St. -1 vs. Akron - Ball State is 11-2 ATS as home team in past 2.5 years; 4-0 as a home favorite; 11-6-1 after a loss.

This is the kinda @5sheff research I’m talking about….got me betting on freaking Ball State.

[BDragon]

Those line shifts are legit this morning. Id advise anyone to double check since o put this out on Thursday

[BDragon]

Also im 0-3 on Saturday AM expect a few late bets cause im chasing

BYU vs Utah Under 49.5the Utes offense has struggled and they have not traveled well. Its a rivalry game going under

UGa -7.5 vs Ol Miss. Kirby has the Dawgs ready and they are clinging to a playoff spot. Lane pulled a Lane last week but he gets our coached this afternoon.

[ddaley1985]

Scrolling through matches and saw Oregon vs Rutgers… and then realized that’s a B1G conference matchup smh

[tonyburnertt]

Wasn’t sure where to put this so dropping it here since we had a Franklin discussion in this thread last week-

I can’t tell if he is auditioning for a media job or placing a job ad for himself with this gameday interview this morning.

[StLouHoo]

He’s going to have a number of options this cycle. Apparently he’s obligated as part of his buyout to try and find another job.

[Hoohoohoo]

Penn State booster I spoke to last night was essentially saying that they didn’t expect to have to pay him much because of that obligation.

Seemed resigned to Rhule being the guy. We talked about Bill O’Brien as a dark horse.

[fivesheff]

I’ve been watching that ODU/JMU game all week. Opened at JMU -2.5, moved all the way to pick ‘em on Thursday, and today is back to JMU -3.

[BDragon]

That’s a crazy swing especially since it went back

[BDragon]

The language on the buyout is vague regarding how much of an effort he has to make to find a new job.

That said I expect him to be working on a sideline in the fall

[zh00s]

I was shocked to see JMU favored at al. ODU was looking like the much better squad then I saw they laid an egg against Marshall, who is decidedly mediocre. Not sure what the back story is there - injuries maybe?

[fivesheff]

Five turnovers will do in most teams, especially on the road.

[tonyburnertt]

The language on those is meaningless. They’re paying it if he wants to make them, but agreed I expect him to be back at it pretty soon. Bielema pushed this to the limit and Arkansas still settled for what was rumored to basically be the full amount.

Maybe one year off in media tho- most of them seem to take some time like that. He’d be good at it too.

[JBHoo]

I have a question about the potential elephant in the room… why is A&M only a 7.5 favorite over 2-4 Arkansas? potential upset alert?

[tonyburnertt]

Their defense has looked a lot better since Petrino took over, Petrino knows aTm’s roster pretty well still, and I think weather is going to be a factor as well.

[BDragon]

Uga working a killer back door cover for me

[fivesheff]

Go Ball State!