Last Week 6-4
Overall 30-24-1
First off I canāt post on a UVA Sports forum and not acknowledge the legendary Tony Bennett stepping down yesterday. While I do not know the reason (wrote this at 9:45AM Friday) I hope that he and his family is well. Love you coach and thank you for the memories now go get some rest.
Now I donāt know about yāall but when I get bad news I do 3 things to help me feel better. 1). Sleep - check got a good nights sleep. 2) Hit the gym- Check had a monster workout last night as soon as the news hit. **3)**Turn to a vice- Okay so maybe donāt do this one, but since I am competition prep, no drinking so itās time for my other vice to shine. Thanks gambling.
As always Dragonās College Football Picks are brought you by Dragonās Lair Training, Breathe Fire, Bodoās Bagels, and the tear thatās in my morning Celsius and protein shake, thanks CTB.
BYU -9.5 vs. Oklahoma State OVER 52.5
I said it last week and Iāll double down on it this week. I like BYU. The Cougars will win the Big 12 this year. They will do it on the back of their stellar defense that only allows 17 ppg (11th nationally) and limits teams to 324 yards per game (24th nationally). Combine a stingy defense with the effective quarterback play of Jake Retzlaff and a commitment to establish the run early open up the field for Retzlaff and you have a feisty Cougar team that keeps opponents off balance. Oklahoma State has struggled to slow teams down ranking 100th in passing yards allowed and second worst in the nation in rushing yards allowed. Opposing offenses have had their way with the Cowpokes. The Oklahoma St. offense is a mystery to me despite having potential All American Olli Gordon II in the backfield, OSU has become a one-dimensional pass first offense. The Cowboys currently rank 127th in rushing yards per game, but they are 10th in passing yards which allows to them to at least put up some points at times. Friday night under the lights in Provo, the Cowboys are not ready for this one.
BYU-9.5 OVER 52.5
Indiana -6.5 vs. Nebraska OVER 49
The Hoosiers are the football story I did not know I wanted. At 6-0 Indiana enters the meat of their Big 10 schedule and are ready to prove themselves. The Indiana offense has blown the doors off opponents averaging over 40 ppg. Kurtis Rourke is proof of the benefit ohaving an experienced play caller can do for a program. Heās thrown the ball for 1,1752 yards, 14 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions through six games. Rourke is also averaging 10.3 yards per target. The boy goes all in. The Cornhuskers will need to pull out all the stops to slow down the Hoosiers and while I think the Huskers can contain Indiana, they will be forced out of their comfort zone and into playing catch up.
Indiana -6.5 Over 49.5
Utah St. vs. New Mexico UNDER 77.5
Iāll admit I donāt know much about either of these teams, but when I see a total sitting at 77.5 itās going to catch my eye. Upon further review I know that these teams rank 123rd and 132nd in total yards allowed per game. They donāt stop anyone. I also know that New Mexico rushes the ball for 220 yards per game. Their best defense is their offense chewing up clock. But the reason Iām taking the under here is simple, typically these high spreads simply donāt pan out. There have been 23 games with a total of 75 or more in the last five seasons. The under is 15-8 in those games. Need more? when the over reaches 78.5 or higher the under is 7-0.
Under 77,5
Navy -16.5 vs. Charlotte
Trap game for the Midshipmen? Am I even allowed to say that or is it considered dunking on our military? Anyways, Navy has a massive game looming next week against Notre Dame. Iām hoping that the Navy squad shows why they are special and has the discipline to not overlook a pesky Charlotte group and take care of business.
Navy -16.5
Utah -3.5 vs. TCU
This line has dropped a ton, it opened at 7.5 and currently sits at 3.5. Iām assuming the significant movement has to do with the news around Utah quarterback Cam Rising being shutdown for the season. I actually see this as a good thing. Finally the Utes can focus on playing football and not worry about whoās going to be under center. Utah backup QB Isaac WIlson has played well this season with 830 yards and 6 TDās to his name. TCU is a mess and canāt stop anyone, especially once they reach the redzone or on the ground. Add to that an offense that turns the ball over at an alarming rate, and this becomes the perfect situation for the Utes to find their groove.
Utah -3.5
Mississippi St. +19.5 vs. Texas A&M
The Bulldogs are 1-5 but they are 3-3 ATS and have played their best football in these big spread situations. Mississippi St covered the 37.5 in a 35-13 loss to Texas in Week 5 and hung with UGa to cover the 34 point spread in a 41-31 loss last week. Are the Bulldogs going to pull the upset on Saturday? No. But they can hang with a Texas A&M that has won five straight. Iām banking on the Aggies being distracted and looking ahead to next weekās big home game against LSU and allowing Mississippi St. to hang around.
Mississippi +17.5
Virginia vs. Clemson UNDER 57.5
The fan in me wants nothing more than to see the upset. The gambler in me would be satisfied with covering the 21.5 but this is just a monumental task that Iām not sure the Hoos can accomplish. I donāt like the offense to be able to take care of business and score when needed. The magic number for this game might be 35. If AC throws the ball more than 35 times, its going to be a long day. If he hits under the 35 mark it means the Hoos might be controlling the game with their ground and keeping it close. Either way, 57.5 is a big number and I honestly donāt think Virginia can hold up their end of the bargain and score enough to help hit the over.
Under 57.5
